2026 CAS Risk Call Paper Program on Operational and Tail Risks

• The CAS Risk Working Group encourages the development of a "methodological playbook" that brings quantitative rigor to this space beyond standardized formulas and arbitrary flat charges. Potential questions include:
  • How can actuaries move beyond common prescribed formula-based or load-based operational risk charges and develop mathematical models appropriate for internal capital purposes?
  • Could empirical benchmarks be developed to parameterize operational risks across different lines of business and industries?
  • What methods are currently used by insurers and other financial institutions to identify, quantify, and model operational risk?
  • What operational risks are currently considered most material across different industries and lines of business, and what insights can be drawn from industry surveys, benchmarking, or case studies of current practices?
  • How should operational risk be incorporated into economic capital models, particularly where the boundary between operational risk and other risk categories is unclear?
  • How can dependencies and correlations between operational risk and other sources of risk, such as underwriting, reserving, credit, market, and investment risk, be estimated?
  • How can existing operational risk frameworks, including those discussed by Brehm et al. and under Basel II, be adapted or improved for property and casualty insurance applications?
  • How can operational risk modeling be aligned with identifiable business processes, internal controls, loss-event data, scenario analysis, and expert judgment?
  • What practical implementation challenges, data limitations, model validation considerations, and governance requirements should actuaries consider?

• A paper with this focus could address tail risk and the linkages between reserving uncertainty and economic capital model tail risk:
  • There are many proposed models for reserving tail risk, but not enough benchmarks. Could empirical benchmarks be developed to parameterize tail risk for commonly used models, and what data would be needed to sustain them?
  • In what scenarios can uncertainty in the reserve tail lead to an understatement of extreme outcomes, and how material can that understatement be?
  • How significantly do tail length and the potential for late adverse development impact both regulatory and economic capital requirements?
  • How significantly does tail uncertainty impact capital requirements for long-tailed liability lines, particularly in the context of legal system abuse?
  • What are the impacts of climate risk on casualty? Impact on properties gets all the attention, but the longest tail is often climate-related litigation. How does this emerging climate risk drive reserve volatility, and how can we better quantify the tail risk?

Each author whose proposal is accepted will be assigned two or three members of the Risk Working Group who will serve as reviewers. Reviewers will read drafts, give feedback, and assist authors as they work toward producing a final draft. The review process helps authors submit final papers acceptable for publication in the CAS Forum.

All papers submitted and accepted in response to the call and meeting the minimum standards to be established by the Risk Working Group will be eligible for a cash prize. Awards from the prize fund will be granted at the sole discretion of the Risk Working Group.

1. Deadline for Proposals
   By 10/30/26, authors should submit a one- to two-page proposal including the paper title, a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed, the approach to be taken, and a survey of existing actuarial literature on the subject (title and abstract of a maximum of the five most relevant papers). Proposals should be emailed to Heather Davis, Research Manager, and Elizabeth Smith, Director of Publications and Research, with “2026 Risk Call Paper Proposal” in the subject line of the message.
2. Acceptance of Proposals
   The Risk Working Group will decide whether to accept or reject each proposal. The number of accepted proposals may be limited. Authors will be contacted by 11/30/26, regarding their proposals. A review team will be assigned to work with each author whose proposal is accepted.

3. Monitoring Progress
   The author and review team will establish a mutually agreeable schedule to produce interim drafts. By 02/01/27, a first draft of the completed paper (including an abstract of no more than 150 words) should be submitted to the review team.

Paper Requirements:
A draft version of the companion practical tool, if any, should also be submitted at that time. Each paper will be screened by the review team to ensure its quality of exposition, relevance to the call and to risk research, and adherence to requirements described below. The review team may require rewriting of the paper to bring it to an acceptable standard.
Note: Authors are no longer required to format papers in a specific template, but submissions must include the following:

• A final electronic file of the paper in Microsoft Word or LaTeX. 
• An accompanying pdf of the final paper.
• Separate files for figures in JPEG or PNG format in at least 300 dpi.
• Supplementary attachments/datasets (R files, .xls, etc.).
• An executive summary of 1-2 pages that will help the CAS create a promotional brief or social media post. The summary should include a mention of the research gap being filled, the research question, a brief description of the methodology, the results, and—most importantly—the relevance of the results and the way forward.

Authors should be prepared to provide any supporting documentation granting permission for the use of any proprietary or copyrighted material used in the paper. Permissions documentation must also be included if the author is not the copyright holder of the paper (i.e., the author’s employer owns copyright to the work). See the CAS Forum Submission Guidelines for complete information.

4. Comments on First Draft
   By 02/22/27, the review team will send comments on the first draft to the authors.

5. Second Draft
   By 03/22/27, the Risk Working Group must receive the second draft of the completed paper (and tools, if any) for review.
6. Comments on and/or Approvals of the Completed Paper
   By 04/12/27, all authors will be notified as to the acceptability of their second drafts and provided with additional comments. They will be asked to submit the final papers by 05/10/27.

Once the Risk Working Group approves the manuscript, authors must upload their paper electronically in the Scholar One system for publication in CAS Forum.
The Risk Working Group may reject papers that are submitted late, do not align with the accepted proposal, do not incorporate material suggestions from the review team, or contain deficiencies in clarity, substance, style, or grammar.

7. Presenting the Paper
   Authors can submit proposals to present their papers at one of the “Big 5” CAS events: Spring Meeting; Annual Meeting; Reinsurance Seminar; Ratemaking, Product, and Modeling Seminar; or Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar.
8. Submission to CAS Forum: Guidelines
   Papers should be prepared in accordance with the procedures in the CAS Forum Submission Guidelines and these guidelines: 

• Maximum of 10,000 words. Supporting examples, materials, and figures may be included in an appendix.
• Maximum of 50 manuscript pages, excluding appendices.
• Maximum total count of 30 tables and figures, excluding appendices.
• Maximum of 20 block equations.
• All tables and figures must be numbered and include an in-text callout.
• Manuscripts must include an abstract with a maximum word count of 150 words.
• References must use the author-date system from Chicago Manual of Style, 18th edition.
• Manuscripts should include a list of 2–10 relevant keywords to help readers discover the content online.

Authors will be required to upload an electronic copy of the paper and will be asked to sign the "Permission to Publish" form, which formally grants the CAS permission to publish the paper.

The Risk Working Group looks forward to receiving proposals in response to the call and is happy to respond to inquiries from interested parties. Questions may be addressed to CAS Director of Research & Publications Elizabeth Smith and CAS Research Manager Heather Davis. Your participation will contribute to the written body of knowledge of the CAS and to the success of the 2026 Risk Working Group Call Paper Program.