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Establishing the Expected Loss Ratio

The current hard market has encouraged significant rate activity for most carriers. At the same time, the increasing cost of insurance has led many self-insured organizations to retain a greater portion of their exposures. As a result, both carriers and insureds have needed to reevaluate the loss expectations imbedded in their budgeting and reserving processes. This session will focus on approaches carriers and self-insureds can use in estimating expected losses for use in their financial planning and reserving methods. Attention will also be paid to the interaction between pricing, loss trends, underwriting, and claims handling.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Donald Mango
Panelists: George Levine, Anthony Martella
Keywords: Expected Loss Ratio

Determining Reserve Ranges and Variability of Loss Reserves

Often a high degree of variability exists in loss and loss adjustment expense reserve estimates, particularly with excess of loss reinsurance or long-tailed primary lines of business. Estimates may be as simple as a set of discrete values for low, best, and high estimates, or they may involve a complex family of loss distributions. Estimates that include the determination of the level of confidence an actuary places in a particular reserve level have received increased scrutiny by both regulatory authorities and rating agencies. This panel addresses some common techniques used to analyze the variability of reserves and their underlying assumptions, and hence, validity. Current financial statements require a single liability number and not the distribution of liabilities. This panel will also consider booking a single number and ways to address risks faced by insurers from regulators, market analysts, and insureds in selecting that single liability number.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jacqueline Friedland
Panelists: Rodney Kreps
Keywords: Determining Reserve Ranges and Variability of Loss Reserves

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002: What Does it Mean for Actuaries?

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 has changed the landscape for financial reporting, introducing higher standards for corporate governance, auditing, and financial disclosure, along with more stringent penalties for noncompliance. While the impact of the Act is most directly experienced by audit committees, auditors, and issuer chief financial officers and chief executive officers, the tidal wave of change has affected everyone. For the auditor, nonaudit services provided to audit clients require the preapproval of the audit committee and certain services are prohibited. What does this mean for the actuary working in an accounting firm? For the company actuary, quarterly certifications regarding the accuracy of the financial statements' components over which the actuary has responsibility are now commonplace, and increased attention is being paid to disclosures on reserves and uncertainties. Section 404 of the Act requires that management document and assess its internal controls and that the auditor render an opinion on the adequacy of management's controls. This session will address the challenges and opportunities for the actuary resulting from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the actuary's role in implementing Section 404 requirements.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jacqueline Friedland
Panelists: James Votta, Marc Oberholtzer, Richard Lynch
Keywords: What actuaries should know about Sarbanes-Oxley

Premium Liabilities-U.S. and Canadian Perspectives

Actuaries in the United States and Canada face different requirements when evaluating premium liabilities. The appointed actuary in Canada must provide an opinion on the adequacy of both premium and claim liabilities. U.S. statutory reporting now requires the calculation of a premium deficiency reserve. However, the U.S. opinion calls for only limited comment on premium liabilities. This session will compare the issues facing the actuary and the regulator in the different jurisdictions.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Ralph Blanchard, Claudette Cantin
Keywords: Premium Liabilities

Income Tax Considerations-Loss Reserves

This panel will review issues with respect to the tax impact of insurance company loss reserves. This discussion will include an analysis of recent case law regarding IRS challenges to insurance company reserves, IRS technical pronouncements regarding the discounting of loss reserves for tax purposes, the impact of codification on loss reserve discount, and other tax trends regarding insurance company loss reserves. The panel will consist of insurance tax specialists, including advisors and industry personnel.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jacqueline Friedland
Panelists: R. Christie, Tracy Williams
Keywords: Loss Reserves, Income Tax Considerations

Fair Value Accounting and Actuaries

Proposals to reform accounting rules have received a lot of attention from accounting standards organizations in recent years. Many of the proposals would dramatically alter how insurance accounting is done. This session will discuss fair value accounting and its potential implications for the actuarial profession. Also included will be discussion of the asset and liability accounting model that goes along with the use of fair value as a valuation technique. This model would eliminate the deferral and matching accounting model used in insurance accounting today. The session will begin with a definition of the term "fair value" and will present a summary of initiatives undertaken by various standard-setting bodies. Topics discussed will include alternatives to fair value, implementation issues, presentation issues (for example what would an income statement look like using fair value valuation and the asset/liability accounting model), and a critique as to the value of "fair value" financial statements.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Claus Metzner
Panelists: Michael Grillaert, Michael McCarter
Keywords: Fair Value Accounting

Closing the Books-Determining Carried Reserves

Much of actuarial work centers on determining the required loss reserves, which is then compared to booked reserves to assess adequacy. Booked reserves are established through the financial closing process, which is generally done within a short time frame at the end of the accounting period (usually month-end). Because of the limited time available to close the books, various formulas and ad hoc procedures are used to determine booked reserves. This session will present some of these methods.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Claus Metzner
Panelists: Joseph Marker, Thomas Moylan, Allan Neis
Keywords: Reserves

The Actuary's Responsibility to Auditors and Examiners

Actuaries routinely work with auditors and examiners when financial statements are being reviewed. While actuaries employed by accounting firms often serve as key participants of the team conducting a financial audit of an insurance company, consulting and in-house actuaries also have a responsibility to the auditor and examiner. This session will explore the actuary's responsibility to examiners and auditors in general, the auditor-actuary relationship, issues around auditor independence, and the expanding role of the actuary within the context of the financial audit. In addition, the session will address the requirements of and revisions to ASOP No. 21 from the perspective of auditors, examiners, and actuaries.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Claus Metzner
Panelists: Michael Grillaert, Michael McCarter, Matthew Carrier

Intermediate Track III-Case Study

Developed as a workshop, this session covers the concepts discussed in the preceding intermediate sessions. The audience will be encouraged to analyze and discuss the cases, and propose techniques to be applied in estimating the loss reserves. Various techniques will be discussed. A calculator will be helpful. A laptop is not necessary, but if a participant brings one, an Excel spreadsheet will be available to test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available online following the seminar
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Workshop
Keywords: loss reserves

Intermediate Track II-Investigating and Detecting Change

This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance, and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Instructors will also discuss adjusting loss reserve methods to account for each situation.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Workshop
Keywords: claim, case reserve adequacy, underwriting, reinsurance

Intermediate Track I-Considerations in Evaluating Changing Conditions

In an ideal situation loss reserving would begin with a long, stable history of consistent claim experience with no significant environmental or operational changes that affect the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage. However, that situation is often far from the reality that an insurance enterprise faces. Changing conditions contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates that are mechanically produced. The intermediate track begins with a series of considerations that can help participants understand the volatility of initial estimates. These considerations will lead participants to diagnostic tools for clues. More complete understanding requires communication with other operating units.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: Evaluating Changing Conditions

Basic Track III-You Set the Reserve!

Loss adjustment expenses are an essential part of a complete estimate of claim liabilities. Instructors will present definitions and basic methods. Participants will then receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. A laptop is not necessary, but if a participant brings one, an Excel spreadsheet will be available to test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will also be available online following the seminar. The intermediate track is a progressive, three-part series that presupposes familiarity with the basic terminology and methods presented in the basic track. The material addresses concepts with relevance beyond the rote application of basic techniques, with a greater focus on the indication for those making business decisions. Sessions will present diagnostics that guide interpretation of the indication and conclude with detailed case studies. The faculty includes experienced reserve actuaries who can offer personal insight on the value added by communication with representatives of other operating units. The intermediate track is not intended for members of the Casualty Actuarial Society.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Workshop
Keywords: reserving

Basic Track II-Comparison of Techniques

Building on Basic Track I, this session presents basic questions that surround a reserve estimate: "Is it reasonable?" and "How sensitive is the estimate to alternate assumptions?" Instructors will then explain basic Expected Loss Ratio Methods and compare them to the loss development method. Advantages and disadvantages of each of the methods will be presented. The session will conclude with a description of Annual Statement Schedule P, including the terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: reserve estimate

Basic Track I-Considerations in Evaluating Reserves

Basic understanding begins with the CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves, including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the Statement of Principles discussion, participants will walk through, step-by-step, the most basic of reserving techniques: the loss development method. The presentation will include examples of data organization, link ratios, key assumptions, and potential problems.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: Evaluating Reserves

General Session II: Section 404 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act-What Actuaries Need to Know

On July 30, 2002, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 became law in the United States. Section 404 of the Act established requirements for both the management and auditors of public companies with respect to reporting on systems of internal control. Many public companies and their auditors have already begun the complex process of complying with these provisions. One of the most significant components of 404 evaluations for insurance companies is the process under which loss reserves are established. This panel will provide a brief overview of 404 requirements, including an update of the current implementation timeline. In addition, the 404 role of the actuary will be explored from the perspective of the company as well as the independent auditing firm.
Source: 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: general
Moderators: William Burns
Panelists: Jan Lommele, Michael Fusco

Enterprise Risk Management Symposium Agenda for Health Actuaries

The Enterprise Risk Management Symposium offers a number of general and concurrent sessions of interest to health actuaries. In addition, a special concurrent session will explore the differences in the current state of development of risk management topics for the health insurance industry and the unique solutions health insurance may require.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent

Integrated Health benefits - An ERM Perspective

A key operational risk management issue for firms, especially firms in the service sector, are the negative implications of unplanned employee absences and the consequent loss in productivity, increase in cost and increase in risk. Integrated Benefits/Absence Management views the delivery of Health Benefits, Disability Benefits, Workers' Compensation Benefits and Family and Medical Leave Benefits from the perspective of maximizing overall employee well being, enhancing productivity and optimizing the risk/return trade-off for the firm by integrating the benefit delivery system. The panel will discuss the concept of integrated benefits, what tools are available to manage an integrated benefits program and the implications for reducing enterprise risk and overall benefit costs.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Claus Metzner, Annmarie Lipold, Stephanie Ramsey

Integration Correlations of Extreme Events Into Capital Requirements

Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Harry Panjer, B. Manistre

Measures of Correlation and Measuring, Hedging, and Managing Correlation Risk

Correlation risk is an important part of the jigsaw puzzle of risk. Correlation risk is the risk most often overlooked or misestimated in an enterprise. This session will introduce the concept of correlation risk, and this topic will be explored in greater detail in session CS-21 that follows. This session will also summarize major methods of computing correlations for financial models (Pearson's, Spearman, Transformational), ARCH/GARCH, and implied market values. The session will discuss the advantages and disadvantages, computational complexities, and feasibility of the approaches. This session examines the theoretical and practical issues surrounding correlation risk of products whose payoff depends upon the correlation between the underlying factors/assets. This issue is examined in the context of specific examples of correlation-dependent products such as the correlation option, quantos, differential swaps, and lookback option in a deferred variable annuity. The session concludes with a discussion on various issues relevant for hedging correlation risk. Overall, this session solidly blends theory and practical issues surrounding correlation risk. Participants in this session should first attend the Measures of Correlation session (CS-20), which precedes this session.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Mark Tenney, Pete Smith, Jay Sultan, John Dodson

Risk Tolerances and Limits

Most risk management literature tells of processes and procedures that allow risk managers to set limits and maximize returns within the risk tolerances of the company. However, little has been written about how these risk tolerances are determined. Most companies have various sets of established risk limits. ERM techniques allow companies to view all of their risk limits on the same basis and to verify that there really is a consistent set of risk tolerance constraints that support those limits. Speakers will describe their experiences in assessing risk tolerances and translating those into risk limits.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Russell Bingham, Fred Tavan, Zafar Rashid

Risk Metrics

The development of VaR has driven much of bank risk management. No single risk metric has emerged with the same preeminence in insurance companies. Speakers will share the uses that their companies have made of different risk metrics, the strengths and weaknesses that they have found, and the data collection and calculation procedures needed to support the use of their metrics.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Glenn Meyers, Fred Tavan, Max Rudolph

Securitization & Other Instruments for Transferring Risk to the Capital Markets

In recent years, using capital market capacities as a risk-transfer mechanism has grown in popularity in various sectors of the economy, including the insurance industry. A number of techniques for transferring various balance sheet risks to the capital markets have been developed and established. This session will provide an overview of several methods of nontraditional risk transfer, concentrating on the concept of securitization. The panel will give examples of typical capital market securitization frameworks, comment on the economic objectives for their utilization, and discuss possible benefits and challenges of this and other nontraditional risk-transfer techniques.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Richard Gorvett, Cory Anger, Jayan Dhru

Risk Premium for Insurance Product Pricing

Actuaries have historically been charged with developing techniques and methods to price their products adequately. Embedded in the overall price is a charge for the expected losses as well as compensation to the insurer for taking on the risk-the risk premium. While many approaches have been developed over time that derive the risk premium as a function of the volatility of the product's underwriting results, few of them reflect or incorporate other sources of risk borne by the enterprise. Speakers for this session will discuss how methods for calculating risk premiums have evolved (both for life and property/casualty insurers) and how they see future research improving the way risk premiums are developed.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Donald Mango, Stephen Mildenhall, David Ingram

Risk and Capital Management Through ALM

Economic capital, value-at-risk, and capital-at-risk topics are starting to receive increasingly greater attention by the financial community and broader economy. At the same time, the techniques to deal with these concepts are still being developed and refined. How can a company utilize its current expertise on the ALM front to explore an impact of broader types of risks on its economic capital position? This session will introduce ALM concepts that will allow for integration of various risk types into one model and allow for a potential risk reduction at the enterprise level.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: François Morin, Taras Klymchuk, Frank Sabatini

Risk-Adjusted Capital Allocation

Each component of a company's operations involves a different degree of risk. As an enterprise holds capital to protect itself against the risk of adverse financial developments, the cost of capital needs to be allocated to profit centers, business units, or product lines when making critical business decisions involving risk-transfer programs, profitability targets, and growth strategies. Such capital allocation is based on sound economic principals only when the allocation accounts for the risk profile of each component of a company's operations. This panel will discuss how to reflect risk and capital costs in making critical business decisions and will provide an overview of the challenges associated with risk-adjusted capital allocation within an enterprise.
Source: 2003 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: concurrent
Panelists: John Kollar, David Ruhm, Stuart Wason, Sim Segal