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Penalized Regression and Lasso Credibility (2025 Revision)
by Thomas Holmes and Mattia Casotto
About the CAS Monographs Series
CAS monographs are authoritative, peer-reviewed, in-depth works focusing on important topics within property and casualty actuarial practice. The inaugural monograph, Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Bayesian MCMC Models, was published in January 2015.
The CAS Monograph Series initiative fulfills the goal of creating an important addition to the existing body of CAS literature, with each monograph enabling the comprehensive treatment of a single subject.
The International Actuarial Association (IAA) is pleased to invite the global actuarial community to join us in celebrating International Actuaries Day on September 2, 2025. This annual event honors the official founding of the actuarial profession on September 2, 1895, with the establishment of the Institute of Actuaries in London.
The CAS University Recognition Program recognizes academic institutions with a demonstrated commitment to preparing future property and casualty actuaries through their educational offerings. There are three levels of recognition offered, Bronze, Silver, and Gold. Details of the requirements to meet each level can be found on the program webpage.
Don’t miss this one-day virtual seminar on Climate Risk! This virtual seminar features five sessions, each consisting of an engaging presentation and discussions with speakers and other attendees. Please see the ‘Sessions’ section below for session descriptions, learning objectives, and speaker biographies.
This presentation introduces the Credibility Transformer, a groundbreaking non-life insurance pricing model developed by Richman, Scognamiglio, and Wüthrich (2025). It combines the traditional Bühlmann-Straub credibility theory with modern attention mechanisms from machine learning. By adapting the architecture behind ChatGPT, the model enables certain coefficients to function as a learned portfolio prior, effectively blending individual risk factors with collective experience—much like actuaries have done for decades, but now powered by neural networks.
Join the Organization of Latino Actuaries (OLA) in San Diego, CA, from August 13–15, 2025, for the 2025 OLA Avanza Conference, OLA’s largest in-person gathering dedicated to empowering Latine actuaries as well as promoting growth and excellence in the actuarial profession as a whole!
This year’s rebranded conference expands on last year’s Early Career Symposium by now featuring:
CAS members are invited to attend the InsureTech Connect (ITC) Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada at the Mandalay Bay from October 14-16, 2025.
ITC Vegas is the world’s largest gathering of insurance innovation – offering unparalleled access to the most comprehensive and global gathering of over 9,000 tech entrepreneurs, investors, and insurance industry leaders.
Overview
While the past practice of using the published exam and Examiner’s Report as the basis for providing feedback on an exam to the CAS will no longer be possible, candidates will continue to have an opportunity to provide feedback on potentially defective questions, including during the examination itself and immediately after submitting their exam.
Along with R, Python has emerged as an appealing option for actuarial work. Python is a free and open source programming language with a large, global community of users. Python supports general-purpose programming including automation of file system operations, data I/O, and plotting. Many packages are available to carry out classical statistical analysis, as well as more recent statistical learning methods like machine learning, deep learning, and unsupervised learning. There are also packages which perform specific actuarial methods like loss reserving.
The 2025 CAS election ballot is now available to be completed online.
The ballot will ask Fellows to vote on the President-Elect, Board of Directors, and Bylaws Proposal, while the ballot presented to five-year Associates will include the President-Elect and Board of Directors only. Per the current CAS Constitution and Bylaws, only Fellows may vote on amendments to the governing documents.