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Basic Track III-Techniques

This continuation of Basic Track II will discuss additional topics of a fundamental nature, including expected loss ratio techniques and estimation of expense reserves. A brief introduction to Schedule P will be provided in this session. Intended for those with limited knowledge of actuarial concepts. No advance preparation required.
Source: 2002 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: expected loss ratio techniques and estimation of expense reserves

Basic Track II-Techniques*

As a continuation of Basic Track I, this session will provide additional topics of loss reserving fundamentals. Discussion will include (1) comparison of the results of the various techniques introduced in Basic Track I, (2) monitoring and testing the results for reasonableness, (3) data analysis and sources of distortion, and (4) introduction to tail factors. Intended for those with limited knowledge of actuarial concepts. No advance preparation required.
Source: 2002 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: loss reserving fundamentals

Basic Track I-Considerations in Evaluating Reserves

An introduction to loss reserving and fundamental reserving techniques will be provided in this session. Items covered will include definitions, considerations, and types of data that are essential to analyzing and setting loss reserves. This session will also discuss the construction of development triangles and the process underlying the loss development method. Intended for those with limited knowledge of actuarial concepts. No advance preparation required.*
Source: 2002 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: concurrent
Keywords: Evaluating Reserves

Insurance Regulation in a Changing Environment

The September 11 terrorist attacks have had a profound impact on corporate America generally as well as on the insurance industry and the actuarial profession in particular. The Enron bankruptcy has focused attention on the integrity of financial reporting, which is critical to any analysis performed by an actuary. These and other current events have once again fueled the debate of whether state or federal regulation is best suited for the insurance industry. This general session will offer a roundtable discussion of representatives of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and federal legislators who will offer their views on insurance regulation.
Source: 2002 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: general
Moderators: Tim McCarthy
Panelists: Ernst Csiszar, Ike Jones, L. Wagner

Employment Practice Liability

Rating plans, underwriting concerns, current trends, and emerging issues associated with employment practice liability (EPLI) will be discussed in this session. Panelists include an underwriter managing one of the nation's largest stand-alone EPLI books of business and a lawyer specializing in employment-related litigation and counseling in one of the largest EPLI law firms in the country.
Source: 2002 CARe LAS - Directors & Officers and Errors & Omissions Professional Liability
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jean DeSantis
Panelists: Mike Maloney, John Barber
Keywords: Rating plans, underwriting concerns, current trends, and emerging issues associated with employment practice liability

Current Issues in Medical Malpractice Insurance

The medical malpractice marketplace is changing. St. Paul, one of the largest writers of medical malpractice, is exiting the market. Excess insurance and reinsurance markets are hardening or even disappearing for certain components such as hospital insurance, long-term care, and nursing homes. This session will discuss the changes in the market and discuss how entities are reacting to these changes.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Gail Ross
Panelists: John Mize, Carolyn Greene
Keywords: medical malpractice marketplace, Excess insurance and reinsurance markets

Asbestos

This session will discuss recent developments in the asbestos litigation arena, including the recent surge in claim filings, increases in settlement amounts, defendant bankruptcies, and expansion of the defendant list. The discussion will include information regarding recent estimates of the ultimate cost relating to U.S. asbestos exposure ($200-$275 billion) and amounts expected to be borne by U.S. insurers and reinsurers on a net basis ($60-$70 billion). Finally, the panelists will discuss activities of The Coalition for Asbestos Justice and the Asbestos Alliance as well as attempts at federal legislation to "solve" the asbestos problem.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Gail Ross
Panelists: Raji Bhagavatula, Jennifer Biggs
Keywords: asbestos litigation, asbestos

Mold: What's Next?

With the recent multimillion-dollar award against an insurance company on one of the first mold claims of the industry, the looming "mold exposure" has piqued the interest of consumers, attorneys, and the industry at large. Each has their own concerns-personal and public health, individual insurance protection and financial welfare, adequate premiums for exposure, and the financial welfare of insurance industry to provide coverage. This panel will discuss how the various players see the exposure and how they are responding to this emerging issue.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: John Devereux
Panelists: J'ne Byckovski, Domenick Yezzi, Jerry Johns
Keywords: personal and public health, individual insurance protection and financial welfare, adequate premiums for exposure, and the financial welfare of insurance industry to provide coverage

Insurance E-Business-Survival Skills

Although the bubble has burst on Wall Street, many companies have continued quietly to explore the Internet as a means to sell insurance or just increase the efficiency of their business. Our panel will discuss the reality of today's e-commerce environment, describing lessons learned in recent years, the tactics that work and don't work in a virtual insurance world, and the hazards and pitfalls those new to the market should consider. Topics include efforts to sell and service over the Internet, as well as more mundane uses of the Internet as a tool for getting things done faster.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: J. Boone
Panelists: John Gibson, Chuck Rich, David Roush
Keywords: e-commerce environment, hazards and pitfalls those new to the market, virtual insurance world

Assuming New Risk

The September 11 attacks and subsequent terrorist activity had a significant impact on the insurance markets. Suddenly, many insurers were unwilling or unable to write certain risks. The reduced capacity and increased costs in the reinsurance market caused some insurers to stop writing certain sized accounts and high-risk coverage. Corporations with a large number of employees and those with high property values saw premiums double or "coverage not available" in their renewal quotes. Corporate risk managers have reacted by increasing company retentions, forming risk retention groups and captive insurers, and employing other securitization techniques to manage this exposure. This session will explore how companies are evaluating their exposure to manage these risks.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Barry Franklin
Panelists: Mark Ames
Keywords: Corporate risk managers, reinsurance market, forming risk retention groups and captive insurers, securitization, exposure to manage these risks

Pricing Aggregate and Credit Risk for Risk Sharing Entities

Can you say balance? Providing an annual aggregate limit (agg) on losses is nothing new. When aggregate cover is provided, the insurance company can be extending credit, whether it knows it or not. Pricing the aggregate risk in concert with credit risk must be considered to avoid exposing the insurance carrier to risks that were not realized, quantified, or priced for. A financial arrangement can quickly get out of balance when these two risks are not priced and evaluated together. I will introduce concepts that are fundamental to this study, discuss pricing of aggregate risk, and offer a method for pricing credit risk when aggregate cover is provided.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: Paper
Panelists: John Deacon
Keywords: Credit Risk, Pricing Aggregate

On the Practical Multi-line Excess of Loss Pricing

More and more ceding companies are asking for global protection of their portfolios. One example is the protection by the reinsurer of two (or more) lines, e.g. fire and motor third party liability. Clearly this allows the insurance company to optimally balance its portfolio and to pay the lowest reinsurance premium. In this paper we analyze how to price an excess of loss treaty covering multiple lines.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: Paper
Panelists: Jean-Francois Walhin
Keywords: Loss Pricing, Multi-line

January 1, 2002 Renewals and Beyond-The Reinsurance Market in the Aftermath of September 11

Coming so close to the critical date of January 1, 2002, when many reinsurance treaties renew, September 11 threw the reinsurance market into chaos. A renewal period that was expected to bring higher prices and tougher terms due to the hardening of the market suddenly became one in which many reinsurers, as well as ceding companies, were dealing with significant losses and financial difficulties. This panel will look at how reinsurers, brokers, and ceding companies reacted. Panelists will examine the impact on capacity, reinsurer's appetite, and buyer's strategy, and will look at treaty structure, including rates, and terms and conditions, including coverage for terrorism. The panel will also discuss the federal government's role in providing terrorism coverage.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Moderators: George Phillips
Panelists: Frank Kehrwald
Keywords: reinsurance, treaty structure, including rates, and terms and conditions, including coverage for terrorism

Managing Commercial Lines Price Levels in a Loss cost Environment

The Percent of Loss Cost statistic (PoLC) is an effective tool, either alone or in conjunction with standard renewal pricing reports, to measure changes in commercial lines price levels in a loss cost environment. This paper demonstrates the calculations and definitions associated with the PoLC statistic. A case study for workers' compensation is presented which demonstrates a practical application of how PoLC can be used to segment a book of business when implementing indicated rate changes. Finally, sample reports are developed to monitor pricing results versus stated goals.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: Paper
Panelists: Lisa Hays
Keywords: Commercial Lines, Price Levels

Defining Risk Classification Using Set Theory Approach

In this paper, we will review the common definitions of Risk Classification by quickly glancing through two reference materials on the subject: the American Academy of Actuaries Risk classification Statement of Principles and Robert Finger's Chapter on Risk Classification in the Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science textbook. Then, by building on the existing definitions, we will look to establish a more rigorous and consistent treatment of the subject. At the core of our treatment will be a non-traditional definition of the notion of class. We will borrow terminology from Set Theory to help us in this endeavor. We will not only define more rigorously such concepts as homogeneity and separation but we will also integrate them into the very definition of Risk Classification. A method of Risk Classification will emerge as a natural byproduct of our definitions. This method, which may be described as what Venter terms a "credibility only" method, will provide an alternative to using arithmetic functions in Risk Classifications schemes. To illustrate our newly defined precepts of Risk Classification, we will construct a specific model using simulated observations. We will introduce a set of statistics that will allow us to make inferences about our model. Also, we will propose measures for assessing the relative efficiency of competing schemes and suggest procedures for validating a classifications scheme. Finally, we hope that this paper will provide ideas to actuaries looking to build a Risk Classification scheme from scratch.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: Paper
Panelists: Romel Salam
Keywords: Risk Classification

Mining Insurance Data To Promote Traffic Safety and Better Match Rates to Risk

Operating or riding in a vehicle is one of the most dangerous things the typical person does on a regular basis. This paper describes how one company is using new technologies and techniques to mine massive amounts of vehicle crash statistics. In 1998, the company invested in new data mart technology that opened the door to more sophisticated analysis of real world insurance claims data by vehicle, by driver, and by geographic area. This paper will discuss the new data mart and illustrate some data mining tools. Four examples will be used to illustrate how the data is being mined to promote safety and better match rates to risk. These include vehicle safety, dangerous intersections, child passenger safety, and teenage driver safety.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: Paper
Panelists: Gregory Hayward
Keywords: Mining Insurance Data

Credibility and Alternatives to Evaluating Data Fit

Panelists will review credibility in the context of ratemaking concepts. Both classical and Bühlmann models will be described, followed by a discussion of newer advances in credibility theory. The session will include a review of variables affecting credibility, credibility formulas, and practical techniques for applying and increasing credibility.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Paul Brehm, Oakley VanSlyke

Professionalism in Ratemaking-Do I Really Want to Do That?

Session attendees will learn the objectives and get a brief description of the Committee on Professionalism Education, followed by a debate on some of the issues that an actuary might face while developing rates. Two CAS Fellows will discuss differences on what may or may not be acceptable behavior when setting rates.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Dee Mays
Panelists: Roger Schultz, Richard Currie

Introduction to Exposure and Experience Rating

This panel will examine the data required and the methods that are commonly employed in pricing excess of loss reinsurance treaties. Using a game-like setting, the Panelists will illustrate what reinsurers do in the "real" world. A link between experience and exposure rating will be shown by utilizing the same set of data to provide continuity and a reconciliation of the methods.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Dee Mays
Panelists: Joy Takahashi

Introduction to Reinsurance

The basic principles and functions related to reinsurance ratemaking will be the focus of this session. The Panelists will emphasize a pragmatic view "beyond the formulas," including cases depicting the ways in which qualitative data and business issues affect actuarial indications and pricing.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Mary Hosford
Panelists: Michele Feldman

Regulatory Update-Rate Filing Requirements

This session will feature presentations on the regulatory/ratemaking environment in each of three states that should be well known to pricing actuaries. Current events/initiatives, recent rate and other department decisions, market overviews, and general filing guidance are among the topics to be discussed. Audience participation in the form of questions is welcome and encouraged.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Mary Hosford
Panelists: Robert Lindquist, Mike Edwards, Wayne Perkins

Regulatory Issues

In a small group format, the panel will discuss and debate the emerging issues arising at the federal and state levels that could have a major impact on the actuarial profession. Audience participation is expected and encouraged. The Moderator will act as a roving host in the audience to facilitate the discussion. Potential issues to be discussed may include the following: ~Terrorism-A New Frontier? ~Recent Failures of Major Carriers-Did the Actuarial Profession Miss the Boat or was Everyone Just Not Listening? ~Deteriorating Workers Compensation Results ~The Hardening Property/Casualty Markets ~Enterprise Risk Management-Will This Make a Difference? ~DFA-A Regulatory Requirement? ~Privacy Rules per Gramm-Leach Bliley
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Sara Drexler
Panelists: John Pedrick, David Rosenzweig, Eric Nordman, Greg Vass

Cost of Capital Issues

In the aftermath of September 11, the returns required by reinsurers increased dramatically for January 1, 2002, renewals. It is as if the industry suddenly became aware of the existence of catastrophes other than windstorms and earthquakes. The panel will explore whether extreme events should be considered as catastrophes in the pure premium rates, or as an element of risk that is contemplated in the profit provision. Pricing actuaries will be asked if extreme events can be modeled sufficiently to justify the inclusion of catastrophe loads in ratemaking for lines such as workers compensation. Rate-of-return theorists will be asked if the profit models currently in use are consistent with the profits demanded in the marketplace. Regulator's reactions to requests for catastrophe loadings and/or higher profit targets will affect both rates and the availability of coverage in the voluntary market.
Source: 2002 Spring SIS- The Changing Insurance Market
Type: concurrent
Panelists: John Kollar, Stephen Philbrick
Keywords: existence of catastrophes other than windstorms and earthquakes, element of risk, ratemaking, availability of coverage in the voluntary market

Actuary As an Expert Witness: In Civil and Criminal Litigation?

Insurance regulation has historically required actuaries to serve as expert witnesses in administrative hearings concerning rate filings, among other things. Recent trends have required the actuary to be called upon to provide expertise in both civil and criminal litigation on a wide variety of actuarial-related subjects. This session will explore the challenges for actuaries as expert witnesses from two perspectives: the actuary who serves as the witness and the attorney who prepares or cross-examines them.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Charles McClenahan

Quantifying the Impact of Nonmodeled Catastrophes

Over the last decade, much attention has been given to the development of models which estimate hurricane and earthquake expected losses. This session will focus on nonmodeled catastrophe losses: the estimation, via the use of available data, of losses arising from nonhurricane and nonearthquake catastrophes. Panelists will review current methodologies, describing their benefits and drawbacks, and will discuss various alternate methodologies, which incorporate such elements as capping, regional groupings, and credibility. The various advantages and drawbacks of these methods will be discussed. An open discussion on the relative merits of the various procedures and possible variations will conclude the session.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Mark Homan
Panelists: Israel Krakowski