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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Monoline Insurance and Financial Guaranty Reserving
This paper is intended as a primer for property/casualty actuaries in the basic risk principles and business models of financial guaranty insurance. A practical approach to reserving is provided but prior to that it is requisite to review the underwriting and pricing theory and other practices of this trade. An additional goal is to highlight several areas that will likely benefit from the application of traditional and alternative actuarial techniques.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Marc Adee
Panelists:
James McNichols
Keywords:
Financial Guaranty Reserving
Loss Reserve Estimates: A Statistical Approach for Determining "Reasonableness"
With the NAIC's adoption of the Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, the statutory accounting practices for the property/casualty insurance industry have now been codified in a series of Statements of Statutory Accounting Principles (SSAP's). Within the SSAP's, various terms such as "Management's Best Estimate," "Ranges of Reserve Estimates," and "Best Estimate by Line" have been defined. In addition, the Actuarial Standard of Practice (ASOP) No. 36, adopted by the Actuarial Standards Board in March 2000, provides definitions for terms such as "Risk Margin," "Determination of Reasonable Provision," and "Range of Reasonable Reserve Estimates." While they are both well designed and a definite improvement, these new principles and standards of practice provide only broad guidance to the actuary on what is "reasonable." This broad guidance is based on the principle that reasonable assumptions and models lead to reasonable estimates. Unfortunately, this broad guidance can leave the low end of a range of reasonable reserves open to an interpretation that could lead to unintended consequences in practice. This paper will review some current actuarial practices and examine how they relate to the question of what is reasonable from a statistical perspective. Moreover, it will review and further develop some statistical concepts and principles that actuaries can add to their repertoire when developing ranges of liability estimates and then evaluating the "reasonableness" of management's best estimate of reserves within those ranges. It is hoped that the Actuarial Standards Board and others will consider adopting a more definitive definition of reasonableness in order to help avoid the unintended consequences of allowing the reserves to get "too low" in practice.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Marc Adee
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Keywords:
Loss Reserve Estimates
LDF Curve-Fitting and Stochastic Reserving: A Maximum Likelihood Approach
An application of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) theory is demonstrated for modeling the distribution of loss development based on data available in the common triangle format. This model is used to estimate future loss emergence and the variability around that estimate. The value of using an exposure base to supplement the data in a development triangle is demonstrated as a means of reducing variability. Practical issues concerning estimation error and extrapolation are also discussed.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Marc Adee
Panelists:
David Clark
Keywords:
Maximum Likelihood, Reserving
A Generic Claims Reserving Model: A Fundamental Risk Analysis
n their diversity, insurance risks often require very different types of claims reserving models to describe them and to estimate the necessary reserves. The tractability of the chain ladder has contributed to its popularity. A brief analysis is given of the chain ladder's statistical basis and its implied limitations, of which the most important is its propensity to underestimate the reserves. This paper proposes a new paradigm for actuarial risk analysis where the reserving estimate is just one of the many results it delivers. The generic claims reserving model is consistent with the claims development process and from it a rich family of claims reserving models can be constructed. Without loss of generality, the variance is simply defined to be a function of the mean. No particular consideration is given to estimation procedures, as those will depend on the selected model structure.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Gary Josephson
Panelists:
Graciela Vera
Keywords:
Generic Claims Reserving Model, Risk Analysis
Estimation and Application of Ranges of Reasonable Estimates
Until about 30 years ago, the term "range of reasonable estimates" was not generally applied to the loss reserving process. While reserving actuaries were often asked, usually by management, to assess the range around the reserve values, more often than not the actuary could get away with "plus or minus five percent" as a range. The question "five percent of what?" went largely unasked. The result was a general agreement that the carried reserves were within five percent of those needed so long as the five percent could be applied, as required, to unpaid losses, ultimate losses, company assets, industry assets, or GDP. This paper will discuss the concept of a range of reasonable estimates, describe some methods for determining ranges, demonstrate a sound basis for the aggregation of ranges from individual line of business (or other subdivision) ranges, and recommend a basis for the application of the range to individual loss reserving decisions.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Gary Josephson
Panelists:
Charles McClenahan
Keywords:
Estimation and Application of Ranges of Reasonable Estimates
Estimating ULAE Liabilities: Rediscovering and Expanding Kittel's Approach
Existing actuarial literature provides guidance on the use of dollar- and count-based methods for the estimation of ULAE liabilities. Traditional dollar-based methods are based on widely available, and usually audited, company financial data, while count-based methods rely on relatively detailed information regarding the number and cost of various claim-handling activities and events. In the case of fast reporting, slow paying lines of business, traditional dollar-based methods may not produce the best estimate of ULAE liabilities, since the familiar "50/50" assumption does not apply. On the other hand, the application of count-based methods is sometimes impractical. For example, the detailed claim count and activity cost data used in the structural methods can be quite difficult to compile and verify-especially to "outside" actuaries. This paper describes a generalization to a familiar ULAE liability estimation approach, which attempts to duplicate some of the benefits of the structural methods, while relying exclusively on aggregate loss data.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Gary Josephson
Panelists:
Robert Conger, Alejandra Nolibos
Keywords:
ULAE liabilities
Workers Compensation Reserving: How and When Should You Slice the Cake?
Segregating data into credible, homogenous components is one of the most important decisions an actuary has to make. This session will explore various alternatives for workers compensation such as:
Medical benefits versus indemnity benefits
Medical only versus medical on indemnity
Vocational rehabilitation versus other indemnity benefits
Injury type (e.g., occupational disease, death, permanent total, permanent partial, temporary total)
Benefits versus loss adjustment expense
Large deductible policies versus small or no deductible policies
Industry segment or class
Large anomalous accounts versus other policyholders
Jurisdiction
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Miccolis
Panelists:
Timothy Wisecarver, Ezra Robison
Keywords:
Workers Compensation Reserving
Workers Compensation-Emerging Issues
Workers compensation losses respond to a variety of both internal and external influences over time. Actuaries responsible for reserving this line must remain aware of and attuned to new factors affecting losses and changes in the magnitude and nature of affects of preexisting factors over time. This panel will explore recent actuarial and econometric analysis undertaken to better understand and quantify key features of workers compensation loss experience. Panelists will share some qualitative insights and opinions concerning underlying trends, administrative practices, and case law precedents with both global and specific implications for reserving actuaries.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Miccolis
Panelists:
Harry Shuford, Donald DeCarlo
Keywords:
Workers Compensation, Workers compensation losses
Statutory Statements of Actuarial Opinion-Changes for Today and Tomorrow
The NAIC will implement significant changes to the Annual Statement Instructions for the statutory Statements of Actuarial Opinion for 2004. The appointed actuary will be required to make specific disclosures regarding the source of data, materiality standards, and the risk of adverse deviation. The Instructions include expectations of the supporting actuarial report. The Casualty Actuarial Task Force is currently considering a model law that would require additional disclosures in a confidential actuarial summary that would accompany the opinion. A panel of regulatory actuaries who have participated in this process will present the new Instructions and discuss the status of current proposals.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Chester Szczepanski, Richard Marcks, M. Germani
Keywords:
Statutory Statements of Actuarial Opinion
Special Purpose Captives-Mortgage Reinsurance and Contingent Liability Coverage for Automobile Warranty Companies
Industry changes in the past few years have resulted in a number of banks forming mortgage reinsurance companies, allowing them to participate in potential profits from mortgage insurance transactions. The panel will discuss the evolving need for actuarial models, the FAS 113 risk transfer requirements, and the changing accounting requirements associated with these captives.
In addition, during the past few years a number of automobile warranty companies have formed risk retention groups to provide contingent liability coverage in the event the warranty company is unable to perform on its obligations. This coverage produces some unique actuarial and accounting challenges for which there are presently no clear-cut industry or regulatory guidelines. The panel will discuss the nature of the contingent liability coverage provided by the risk retention groups, the occurrence versus claims made nature of the coverage, and the unique loss reserving challenges presented by the coverage.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Miccolis
Panelists:
Mark Sobel, Jeffrey Trichon
Keywords:
Mortgage Reinsurance and Contingent Liability Coverage for Automobile Warranty Companies
Recent Developments in Asbestos
Asbestos litigation continues to challenge companies and their insurers and reinsurers. These challenges are driven by increases in the number of cases filed, higher settlement awards, and more companies named in litigation. RAND estimates that approximately 8,600 companies have been named in asbestos litigation. This session will focus on recent developments in asbestos, including the most recent RAND study, the hearings held by the Senate Judiciary Committee, and potential legislative efforts.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Miccolis
Panelists:
Stephen Carroll, Kevin Madigan, David Austern
Keywords:
Asbestos, Asbestos litigation
Professionalism in Reserving-Do I Really Want to Do That?
Session attendees will learn the objectives and get a brief description of the CAS Committee on Professionalism Education, followed by a debate on some of the issues that an actuary might face while developing reserve estimates. Two CAS Fellows will discuss differences on what may or may not be acceptable behavior when setting reserves.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Miccolis
Panelists:
Therese Klodnicki, Patrick Gilhool
Keywords:
Professionalism
Pre-Event Catastrophe Reserves-An Update
In October 2001, the NAIC formulated a mechanism for property/casualty companies to establish tax-exempt, pre-event catastrophe reserves. However, workers compensation was not a covered line, nor was terrorism specifically listed as a cause of loss.
The panel will discuss whether terrorism and workers compensation can be included in the catastrophe reserve design, and how they differ from natural catastrophes affecting property lines. The panel will also discuss the tax ramifications of this reserve, and possible alternatives to the NAIC proposal.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Elissa Sirovatka
Panelists:
Michael Walters
Keywords:
Catastrophe Reserves
International Reserving Issues and U.S. Actuaries
Given the international nature of the insurance marketplace, it is only natural for U.S. casualty actuaries to be called upon to evaluate the liabilities resulting from policies covering foreign exposures. In addition, U.S. actuaries are often called upon to assist in the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) conversion of foreign insurer financial statements. During such assignments, cultural and communication issues are often as challenging as the technical reserving issues.
This session will focus on the reserving and cultural issues that actuaries working overseas encounter. Panelists will include actuaries who have worked in both Europe and Asia discussing some of the differences between "local" reserving requirements and U.S. GAAP, as well as the cultural challenges affecting the reserving process. Unique foreign policy types and exposures will also be explored.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Elissa Sirovatka
Panelists:
Jason Russ, Leslie Marlo, Steven Glicksman
Keywords:
International Reserving Issues
International Reserving Issues
With the global scope of actuarial practice today, international issues are of increasing importance. This panel will discuss reserving, regulatory, and accounting issues that actuaries outside of the U.S. and Canada face. Specific topics will include reserve opinion requirements, updates on the ongoing European Union Solvency II proposals for insurance regulation, and the International Accounting Standards Board's development of fair value accounting standards.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Nicholas Pastor
Panelists:
Mark Scully, Julian Leigh
Keywords:
International, Reserving, Statements of Actuarial Opinion, Solvency,international reserving, corporate actuary, reserve monitoring
Cracked Rearview Mirror: Considerations in Reserving for Loss and DCC in a Changing Claims Environment
In response to competitive pressures and profitability goals, many insurers have undertaken an overhaul of their claims handling process. Numerous claims initiatives have been implemented, focusing on controlling both loss and DCC expenditures. This changing environment has increased the need for interaction between claims and reserving professionals.
This session will provide a discussion of the factors affecting loss and DCC reserving in a changing environment. Particular consideration will be paid to data issues emerging from shifting expense definitions, as well as corporate claim handling and DCC strategies. The value of discussions between claims personnel and actuaries will also be explored.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Nicholas Pastor
Panelists:
John Rollins, Phillip Kentfield
Keywords:
Reserving for Loss and DCC in a Changing Claims Environment
Construction Defect and Emerging Toxic Torts
This first part of the session will discuss current litigation of emerging toxic torts such as mold, arsenic/CCA-treated wood, indoor air quality, groundwater contamination, lead, MTBE, and silica, among others. The second half of the session will discuss different approaches to reserving construction defect claims and the various considerations in applying these methods. The session will also address recent trends and developments in construction defect claims including the impact of additional insured endorsements (as a result of the Presley Homes v. American States court decision), states with emerging claim frequency, mold, and EFIS claims.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Joseph Marker
Panelists:
Ronald Kozlowski, John Delany
Keywords:
Construction Defect, Emerging Toxic Torts
The CFO and the Actuary: Financial Odd Couple or Dynamic Duo?
Today, all enterprises face dramatically increased financial reporting requirements and scrutiny. Insurers are not an exception. This panel will explore the relationship between the chief financial officer and the actuary. Panelists will offer a humorous list of "do's" and "don'ts" as well as a plan for these two professionals to collaborate on achieving the corporate mission.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
John Gleba
Panelists:
Robert Deutsch, Ken Koreyva, Joe Boyle
Keywords:
CFO
ASOP's Fables-How Plaintiffs and Actuaries Use the Actuarial Standards of Practice in Litigation
Once upon a time, plaintiffs began interpreting (and misinterpreting) the Actuarial Standards of Practice to judges and juries. In this session, attorneys who are experienced in defending actuaries against claims of negligence and malpractice will illustrate some of the ways in which plaintiffs are using the ASOP's against the actuarial profession. They also will reveal ways in which actuaries can and should use the ASOP's to reduce their risk of being sued and, if necessary, to defend their work during litigation.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Frederick Krull
Panelists:
R. Muth, Sandra Brown
Keywords:
ASOP's, Actuarial Standards of Practice in Litigation
Recent Developments in Finite Reinsurance and Dealing With Risk Transfer Issues
Many changes have recently occurred in the reinsurance marketplace. The traditional market has hardened, low interest rates continue to drop, and the market players continue to look for solutions. This session will focus on the current landscape in the world of finite reinsurance and the accounting issues surrounding meeting risk transfer requirements such as FAS 113, statutory accounting rules, and actuarial standards of practice.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Duetsch
Panelists:
Bruce Fell
Keywords:
Finite Reinsurance, Risk Transfer
Introduction to Reinsurance Reserving
While reinsurance reserving principles are generally similar to primary reserving, their application is often more difficult and involves special considerations. This session provides a basic understanding of loss reserving principals, considerations, and techniques as applied to assumed reinsurance.
The panelists will cover reinsurance contract types, grouping of data for loss development, specific reserving techniques, and complications in their application.
This session is not intended for experienced reinsurance actuaries but assumes a working knowledge of primary reserving techniques. No advance preparation is required.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Christopher Bozman, Bruce Fell
Keywords:
Reinsurance Reserving
Reserving for Directors' and Officers' Liability
In today's rapidly changing and tumultuous marketplace, reserving for directors' and officers' liability is more of a challenge than ever before. This session will focus on nontraditional reserving methods, important claims considerations, and key external factors that drive the frequency and severity claims under these coverages.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Marc Pearl
Panelists:
Douglas Collins, Claude Yoder, Brian Kristiansen
Keywords:
Reserving for Directors' and Officers' Liability
Product Liability Reserving
This session will discuss some of the current trends in the product liability legal environment. In particular, it will focus in on factors that can affect the reserving actuary in estimating costs of class action suits and other significant cases. The featured speakers are an attorney and a physician expert witness who have been involved in a number of major product liability cases in the pharmaceutical industry. They will discuss their experiences in the litigation and analysis of such cases.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Randall Buhlig
Panelists:
David Benjamin, Stephan Beyer
Keywords:
Product Liability Reserving
Private Passenger Automobile Insurance
Through closed-file reviews for liability losses and field vehicle reinspections, the automobile insurance industry has long recognized chronic tendencies to overpayment. Whether from outright fraud or just the inherent complexity of case management, claims leakage has been estimated to cost auto insurers billions of dollars annually. This session will discuss advanced predictive modeling and data mining solutions to aid the loss adjuster in determining loss severity and reducing claim overpayments.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Koenig
Panelists:
Donald Procopio, Frank Cacchione, Carlos Ariza
Keywords:
Private Passenger Automobile Insurance
Nonmedical, Non-Directors' and Officers' Professional Liability
Some areas in nonmedical professional liability reserving are unfamiliar to many actuaries. This is a unique line of business characterized by claims-made business and extended reporting endorsements. Recent hot topics included IPO laddering issues in the directors' and officers' area, reserving for employee practices liability, and, most recently, a heightened awareness of the scope of liability surrounding accountant's errors and omissions liability in the attest (audit) area of practice.
This session will examine how these issues affect the reserving process for this line of business and how the social and economic conditions affect the frequency and severity of these claims.
Source:
2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Koenig
Panelists:
Kim Piersol, Jane Taylor
Keywords:
Nonmedical, Non-Directors' and Officers' Professional Liability
