2022 Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar

Event Details


Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort

Orlando, FL

About This Event

Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks for effective Enterprise Risk Management. Insurance executives, regulators, risk managers and rating agencies are all beginning to raise the bar for the actuarial profession with respect to discussing and disclosing insurance risk calculations. The week prior to the live event, an optional 3-hour virtual statistical review will be offered to attendees via the Microsoft Teams platform.

Attendance is limited to a maximum of 35 participants. Attendees will be selected on a first registered, first accepted basis. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop to the seminar.


This seminar is designed to enhance the skills of the practicing actuary with regard to fitting and using and communicating results from loss reserve models. Emphasis in the seminar will be on the process of moving from deterministic methods for estimating a single point to stochastic models for estimating a distribution. The learning objectives include:

  • Review of Statistical Concepts
  • Understanding of Ranges vs. Distributions
  • Knowledge of Statistical Modeling Techniques
  • Hands on Use of Models, with Emphasis on Simulation Models
  • Understanding of Diagnostic Testing
  • Understanding of Model Strengths & Weaknesses
  • A Better Understanding of Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty


The target audience for this seminar is actuaries that are new to statistical / probabilistic reserving or that wants a ground up refresher course. While some review of the theoretical underpinnings will be included, the emphasis will be on practical aspects of using stochastic models.


A review of basic statistical concepts and an exercise set will be sent out prior to the start of the seminar. Attendees are expected to understand these concepts and a pre-seminar teleconference may be scheduled to answer questions.

Attendees are encouraged to read sections 1 through 3.1 (pages 1-24) of the Working Party on Quantifying Variability in Reserve Estimates final report prior to the seminar. However, no prior knowledge of the concepts and models in this report will be assumed. The seminar will be organized around the practical issues discussed in the Working Party report, including a hands-on look at several stochastic models.

Attendees are encouraged to bring the following:

Add-ons screenshot
  • A laptop computer that has Microsoft Excel loaded (2003 or later version recommended - earlier versions should still work, but the instructors cannot guarantee this ahead of time). The instructors will be using and distributing Excel files and using add-in tools to do numerical calculations. Be sure that the Analysis ToolPak, Analysis ToolPak - VBA and Solver Add-Ins for Excel are installed on your machine. Files will be distributed via email before the seminar and on a flash drive at the seminar.
  • Questions for the instructors.
    • This will assist them in covering topics of interest to the audience.
    • Questions submitted via the registration form or email prior to the seminar will be given priority.
Event Information

Casualty Actuarial Society's Envisioned Future 

The CAS will be recognized globally as the premier organization in advancing the practice and application of casualty actuarial science and educating professionals in general insurance, including property-casualty and similar risk exposure. 

Continuing Education Credits 

The CAS Continuing Education Policy applies to all ACAS and FCAS members who provide actuarial services. Actuarial services are defined in the CAS Code of Professional Conduct as "professional services provided to a Principal by an individual acting in the capacity of an actuary. Such services include the rendering of advice, recommendations, findings or opinions based upon actuarial considerations". Members who are or could be subject to the continuing education requirements of a national actuarial organization can meet the requirements of the CAS Continuing Education Policy by satisfying the continuing education requirements established by a national actuarial organization recognized by the Policy. 

CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time, not to include breaks or lunch.

Note: The amount of CE credit that can be earned for participating in this activity must be assessed by the individual attendee. It also may be different for individuals who are subject to the requirements of organizations other than the American Academy of Actuaries.
Contact Us  

For more information on content, please contact Wendy Ponce, Professional Education Coordinator, at wponce@casact.org.  

For more information on course logistics or attendee registration, please contact Leanne Wieczorek, Meeting Planner at lwieczorek@casact.org.  

For more information on other CAS opportunities or regarding administrative policies such as complaints and refunds, please contact the CAS Office at (703) 276-3100 or office@casact.org

Registration Information

Limit up to 35 participants

Group registrations are not permitted.


 Registration fees (in U.S. DOllars)

Received on/before May 1, 2022

received after May 1, 2022

Member/Subscriber/Candidate/iCAS Member








Special Discount

Reserve Variability attendees that also plan to attend the 2022 Spring meeting, may get a 25% discount on the 2022 Spring Meeting registration. Attendees must register for Reserve Variability first. After registering for Reserve Variability, please email Leanne Wieczorek at lwieczorek@casact.org about receiving your discount for the 2022 Spring meeting. Instructions will be provided on how to proceed with Spring meeting registration with discount.


The registration fee will be refunded for a cancellation received in writing at the CAS Office via email, refund@casact.org  on or before the refund deadline of May 9, 2022, less a $100 administrative fee.


The instructors are Mark R. Shapland, FCAS, FSA, MAAA, an Associate Actuary with the Auto Club Group, and Louise A. Francis, FCAS, MAAA, CSPA, a Consulting Principal for Francis Analytics & Actuarial Data Mining. Mr. Shapland was the chair of section three for the Reserve Variability report, has written a paper on a statistical approach for determining reasonable reserves, and has spoken on the topic of reserve variability at many CAS and international meetings. Ms. Francis is a past CAS Vice President of Research & Development and won the Michelbacher award (1989) for a paper about using simulation to quantify variability.


The 2022 CAS Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar will be held at:
Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort
1000 West Buena Vista Drive
Lake Buena Vista, Florida 32830-8403
Main Phone: +1-407-939-1000

<* Read below for Disney Theme Park information and link to discounted tickets.

Experience Disney's Coronado Springs Resort

Celebrate the unique blend of Spanish, Mexican and Southwest American cultures at Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort. From the moment you enter the stunning 15-story Gran Destino Tower you'll find yourself immersed in a unique blend of contemporary design and old-world traditions. This beautiful lakeside oasis offers modern influences, Disney touches and classic comforts to energize and inspire as you delight in an array of new amenities, eateries, and enhancements.

We have two different room types/rates reserved at the resort. Please note that the tower is not the location of the convention center where our events will take place. Some non-tower rooms are clustered closer to the convention center than others, including some situated further across the lake. Reservations may be made online or by telephone, and a phone call is recommended if you wish to discuss room specifics with an agent.

Group Room Rate:

  • Gran Destino Tower: $275 for single/double occupancy, plus taxes
  • Non-Tower Room: $219 for single/double occupancy, plus taxes

A limited number of rooms have been reserved for the duration of the CAS Spring Meeting and Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar. Disney will also allow guests to reserve nights before and after our event, depending on availability. If you plan to extend your stay, we highly recommend reserving your room early. Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort has a check-in time of 3:00 p.m. and a checkout time of 11:00 a.m.

How to Reserve:

  • For online reservations, visit: https://mydisneygroup.com/casmtg2022 and click "Book Rooms" at the top right of the page
  • Call the Disney Group Reservations Phone Team at (407) 939-4686 reference: “CAS Spring Meeting”

Reservation Details: The reservation deadline is Friday, April 22, 2022. While reservations must be made prior to Friday, April 22, 2022, to receive the group room rates, there is no guarantee that rooms will be available should you wait until this date. CAS strongly suggests that you make your room reservations early to secure accommodations before the room block fills.

Theme Park (Discount Tickets), Dining, and Recreation Plans
Detailed information for CAS attendees to plan your visit to Walt Disney World may be found at the same link as online room reservations: https://www.mydisneygroup.com/casmtg2022.

From here you may explore the resorts, parks, dining, hours, plan your visit, purchase tickets, research the latest safety protocols, reserve additional services, and more! Special meeting & convention theme park tickets are available via this site, including discounted tickets for full day, multi-day, and even partial day visits that are not available to the public.

Additional Lodging and Locale Information:

For more information on the hotel, Walt Disney World, or the greater Orlando area, please visit:
Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort
Walt Disney World

Important Information Regarding Official Spring and reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar Meeting Hotel:

The Casualty Actuarial Society can conduct high-quality meetings at desirable sites for a reasonable registration fee because a block of hotel rooms is reserved for meeting attendees. In exchange for filling the required number of sleeping rooms, the CAS is permitted to use the hotel's meeting space at no cost, thus keeping registration fees low. In addition, meeting attendees receive a reduced rate for their sleeping rooms. We kindly request that all meeting attendees take advantage of the group rate and stay at the official Spring Meeting property, Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort.


Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort is located approximately 22 miles from Orlando International Airport. The airport code is MCO and their website is: https://www.orlandoairports.net/.

For pre-arranged taxicab or shuttle service between the airport and resort, Mears Transportation is the recommended service provider: https://www.mearstransportation.com/.

For driving directions, please visit your preferred map application and use the resort’s address: 1000 West Buena Vista Drive, Lake Buena Vista, Florida 32830-8403.


Course Outline

All times are listed in Eastern time.

The week prior to the live event, a 3 hour online statistical review will be offered for attendees.

Wednesday, May 18

12:30 pm – 6:00 pm, ET

Seminar (lunch and dinner not provided)

Thursday, May 19

8:00 am – 5:00 pm, ET


Friday, May 20

8:00 am – 3:00 pm, ET



Course Outline

All times are listed in Eastern time.

The week prior to the live event, a 3 hour online statistical review will be offered for attendees.

Wednesday, May 18

12:30 pm – 6:00 pm, ET

Seminar (lunch and dinner not provided)

Thursday, May 19

8:00 am – 5:00 pm, ET


Friday, May 20

8:00 am – 3:00 pm, ET