CAS Seeks Canada-Focused Research on Potential Bias in Geographical Ratemaking Influenced by Climate Risks

The Casualty Actuarial Society’s (CAS) Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force is offering up to $50,000 (USD) to researchers to develop a research paper on potential for bias and/or unfair discrimination in geographical ratemaking in Canada influenced by climate risks.

Proposals should be submitted by January 30, 2026.

Research Problem Description

Insurers rely on territory-based pricing to manage the growing risk of extreme weather events such as floods, wildfires, and storms. Both the frequency and the severity of such events are increasing, partly due to gradual climate shifts, which leads to greater impact and growing pressure on insurance availability and affordability. The increasing effects of extreme weather events are not uniform, however, as urban centers, rural areas, and isolated communities experience different exposures and have developed various levels of resilience.

A critical problem arises when territorial boundaries align with natural or social divisions such as rivers, highways, census tracts, or historically segregated neighborhoods. In these cases, models designed to reflect climate exposure may unintentionally penalize vulnerable groups, as defined by regulators, including those identified under Canadian human rights codes. The result is that some communities may face unaffordable premiums, restricted underwriting eligibility, or limited product availability, reinforcing inequities rather than reflecting pure risk differences.

The CAS is asking researchers to examine the challenges associated with the accelerating impacts of climate change on territorial rating factors. While this is likely most visible in property insurance where territory boundaries directly influence premium adequacy, underwriting appetite, and access to coverage, researchers may also consider insights from auto insurance, given the prevalence of combined policyholders, the impact of climate change on comprehensive coverage, and shared geographic factors.

The model/tool/solution should:

• Address the research topic by developing an analytical framework that helps the actuarial profession design territory models that are both risk-reflective and fair, providing transparency into where model design choices may contribute to disparities.
• Include framework approaches to test whether boundaries are capturing genuine exposure or are coincidentally aligned with social or geographic divides.
• Propose practical methods that actuaries can use to detect and reduce bias while preserving the integrity of risk-based pricing and underwriting decisions. 

Projects may include, but are not limited to, the following topics:

1. Focus on geographic risk in Canada, primarily in property insurance (auto insights optional). 

2. Examine how climate risk influences territorial pricing and underwriting, affecting affordability and availability. 

3. Assess whether territory boundaries reinforce inequities by aligning with social, political, or geographic divides. 

4. Explore correlations between vulnerability indicators, as defined by the authors, and protected characteristics defined under Canadian human rights codes. 

5. Develop methods to detect and mitigate unintended bias in territory or catastrophe models while maintaining risk-based principles. 

6. Provide practical recommendations for insurers and regulators, supported by case studies or best practices. 

Researchers should use publicly available data and models wherever possible, as proposals that enable transparency and reproducibility will be prioritized.

Research Requirements

Research project deliverables include:

• An evidence-based report, including methodology and findings, that provides actionable recommendations, supported by technical appendices with sample code and models, for actuaries and regulators to develop and implement fair and effective territory models in the context of climate change. 
• The expected outcome is a 20-40 pages report that provides recommended approaches for addressing the key questions listed above, case examples, and applied tools that will enable actuaries and regulators to evaluate and improve territory models, ensuring insurance practices remain both fair and effective in a climate-sensitive future. 
• The CAS is open to however few/many pages are necessary to sufficiently address the research problem, but 20-40 are typical. The paper should present technical information with sufficient clarity for stakeholders without actuarial/STEM backgrounds to find them accessible and useful. Any accompanying code examples will be shared on the CAS GitHub site (https://github.com/casact). All material on GitHub is released under the Mozilla Public License, version 2.0 (https://www.mozilla.org/en-US/MPL/2.0/). 

Submitting Proposals

Proposals should include:

• A clear outline of the workplan, including which topics from the suggested list of topics will be included and in what manner.
• A proposed project timeline, including delivery of at least one draft report for task force review and feedback prior to project completion.
• Researchers’ resumes that detail qualifications.
• Cost estimates, not exceeding $50,000 (USD). (Note: A portion of the grant can be used to cover usual and customary travel expenses to present the paper at a CAS-sponsored seminar or meeting.)

The CAS contract will be awarded to the respondent who, in the judgment of the CAS Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force and based on the written proposal, is deemed to be best able to perform the work as specified. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, no contract will be awarded. Interested parties are welcome to submit questions about the RFP at least 10 days prior to the proposal deadline.

Proposals and questions should be sent to Mallika Bender at mbender@casact.org by January 30, 2026. Proposal submissions should write “Canada Potential Bias in Geographical Ratemaking Proposal” in the subject line.

Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged promptly. Respondents who are not awarded the contract will be informed by February 27, 2026.

Review of Paper

The research paper will be assigned to three or more members of the Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force to serve as reviewers.

These reviewers will read drafts, provide feedback, and help the researcher(s) develop a final draft. The goal of this review process is to help researchers produce a final paper suitable for publication.

In addition, once the Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force approves the manuscript, authors must upload their paper electronically in the Scholar One system for publication. If the paper will appear in CAS E-Forum, the E-Forum Working Group will review the manuscript and provide feedback for additional revision as necessary. Draft papers can optionally be posted as Working Papers on the CAS website, upon request of the author and approval of the task force. The Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force may reject papers that are submitted late, do not align with the accepted proposal, do not incorporate material suggestions from the review team, or contain deficiencies in clarity, substance, style, or grammar.

Paper Format and Other Requirements

Authors are no longer required to format papers in a specific template, but submissions must include the following:

• A final electronic file of the paper in Microsoft Word or LaTeX. 
• An accompanying pdf of the final paper.
• Separate files for figures in JPEG or PNG format in at least 300 dpi.
• Supplementary attachments/datasets (R files, .xls, etc.).
• An executive summary of 1-2 pages that will help the CAS create a promotional brief or social media post. The summary should include a mention of the research gap being filled, the research question, a brief description of the methodology, the results, and—most importantly—the relevance of the results and the way forward. In addition, the executive summary should be understandable by a non-technical audience.
• Authors should be prepared to provide any supporting documentation granting permission for the use of any proprietary or copyrighted material used in the paper. Permissions documentation must also be included if the author is not the copyright holder of the paper (i.e., the author’s employer owns copyright to the work).

Compensation

Compensation to researchers will be commensurate with the scope of the proposed project subject to an overall cap of $50,000 (USD).

Authors will be required to upload their final additional paper electronically in the CAS’s ScholarOne system and must report on the use of artificial intelligence, if any, used to produce research.

Travel costs to present the results of the project at a CAS seminar will be covered subject to the constraints of the overall total cost cap of $50,000 (USD).

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

As a condition of selection, the CAS requires the right to publish the research paper in any of our publications. The research authors may publish the results of their work in other publications but will acknowledge in any publication outside of those by the CAS the role that the CAS played in supporting the research effort. The selected researcher/research team must sign a formal research agreement assigning all such rights to the CAS. In any publication of the report, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate authorship credit. The CAS may publish the report in its entirety, or any sections thereof, in any format and medium, including, but not limited to CAS publications, and electronic versions on its website or physical storage media. To aid research adoption, the final work product’s code and data will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license.

The researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

Timeline

Thursday, December 18, 2025	RFP Announcement
Tuesday, January 20, 2026	Deadline to Submit Questions
Friday, January 30, 2026	Proposals Due
Friday, February 27, 2026	Selection of Proposals
Approximately 3-4 months after project kickoff	Completed Project Deadline

 

About the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The CAS was organized in 1914 as a professional society for the promotion of actuarial and statistical science as applied to insurance other than life insurance, such as automobile, liability other than automobile, workers compensation, fire, homeowners, commercial multiple peril, and others. Such promotion is accomplished by communication with those affected by insurance, presentation and discussion of papers, attendance at seminars and workshops, collection of a library, research, and other means. The membership of the CAS includes over 10,000 actuaries worldwide, employed by insurance companies, industry advisory organizations, national brokers, accounting firms, educational institutions, state insurance departments, the federal government and independent consultants.

About the Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force

The Canada Race and Insurance Research Task Force is responsible for the development of new entries in the CAS Research Paper Series on Race and Insurance Pricing covering topics related to bias and fairness in insurance rating that are particularly relevant to the Canadian insurance industry.