Proposal Deadline: July 7, 2025

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is offering up to $45,000 to fund research quantifying quantifies the impact of hurricane mitigation measures and associated premium credits.

Research Problem Description

Six of the ten of the most expensive hurricanes, resulting in more than $230 billion in insured losses, occurred during the past decade. Changing climate conditions and growing population density in hurricane-prone regions necessitate a thorough quantification of the impacts of various mitigation efforts, such as premium credits. These efforts can benefit insurers and customers while inform public policy and safety decisions.

For example, Florida Section 627.0629(1) requires all residential property insurers to file premium credits for customers who install or implement windstorm damage mitigation — such as strengthening roofs, windows, doors and skylights as well as roof-to-wall and wall-to-floor-to-foundation reinforcement.

Pursuant to the statute, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) determines credits for the mitigation measures and secondary characteristics that insurers may use in rate filings. While the current credits are based on a 2008 study, an updated study was released in June 2024. Damage ratios for hurricane mitigation measures and secondary characteristics are also required in hurricane catastrophe model submissions to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology.

While there is ample detail available on damage ratios and premium credits for the hurricane mitigation measures and secondary characteristics prescribed by Florida statute, there are several problems with the implementation of windstorm mitigation credits in the current ratemaking process.

To broaden the available material on detailed alternative studies of hurricane mitigation premium credits, researcher(s) will develop new or substantively adapt existing frameworks that can be integrated into residential and/or commercial property insurance pricing.

The research report might:

• Explore the need for consistency in catastrophe models used to perform the quantification of mitigation efforts with those for estimating loss costs;
• Consider whether the premium credits provided by an insurer are reflected in the corresponding cost of reinsurance for catastrophe exposed business;
• Outline actuarial considerations and approaches for developing hurricane mitigation premium credits;
• Describe challenges in obtaining data and implementing hurricane mitigation premium credits; or
• Illustrate the concepts through case studies based on specific communities representing a significant concentration of hurricane risk.

Proposal Requirements

The proposal should propose new or substantively adapt existing frameworks for hurricane mitigation premium credits that could be integrated into residential and/or commercial property insurance pricing for hurricane-prone states.

The proposed framework(s) for mitigation premium credits should be:

• Structured and parameterized to comply with ratemaking requirements in Florida and hurricane-prone other states
• Flexible enough to adapt to the evolving nature of hurricane risk over time
• Potentially applicable to a wide range of property pricing use cases, and
• Rooted in established actuarial ratemaking and catastrophe modeling principles.

Additionally, the credits should be explainable to insurance industry decisionmakers who may not have actuarial or catastrophe modeling education or experience.

Material assumptions, limitations and uncertainties should be clearly communicated and quantified where appropriate.

In addition to a CAS-published research paper, the selected researchers must deliver a two- to three-page executive summary suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key takeaways from the paper and be understandable by a non-technical audience.

This paper is a sample of the type of end product the CAS is seeking: Catastrophe Models For Wildfire Mitigation: Quantifying Credits And Benefits to Homeowners and Communities  

Submitting Proposals

Interested researchers should submit a proposal that includes:

• A detailed outline and research approach.

• Labor expenses commensurate with the time required and other out-of-pocket expenses that should not exceed $45,000.
• Resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their background, education and experience demonstrate their qualifications to perform the research.
• Acknowledgement that authors must report the use of artificial intelligence, if any, while producing research.

Interested parties are welcome to submit questions about the RFP. All questions and responses will be circulated to those respondents who have submitted questions or who have expressed their intent to submit proposals by June 15, 2025. Submit questions and proposals to Olivia Curtis (ocurtis@casact.org), Program Coordinator, and copy to Joyce Warner (jwarner@casact.org), Chief Business Officer. “Hurricane Mitigation Premium Credits Proposal” must be in the subject line.

A CAS contract will be awarded to the researcher(s) who, in the judgment of the Climate and Sustainability Working Group, can best perform the specified work. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, no contract will be awarded.

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

Upon selection, the researcher(s) must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all rights, title, and interests, including copyright and patent rights of the report will be owned by the CAS. In any publication of the report, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate authorship credit.

Authors will be required to upload their final paper electronically in the CAS’s Scholar One system. To aid research adoption, the final work product’s code and data will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license. Researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

Timeline

About the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a leading international organization for credentialing and professional education. Founded in 1914, the CAS is the world’s only actuarial organization focused exclusively on property and casualty risks and serves over 11,000 members worldwide. CAS members are experts in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, finance, risk management, and enterprise risk management. Professionals educated by the CAS empower business and government to make well-informed strategic, financial and operational decisions. To expand and enhance the skills of modern actuaries, the CAS supports research in a variety of areas.

About the Climate and Sustainability Working Group

The Climate and Sustainability Working Group addresses actuarial issues related to climate risk and sustainability within the Property-Casualty sector. It is a cross-functional body, providing guidance on climate and sustainability-related research, professional education, and outreach.

Proposal Deadline: July 7, 2025

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is offering up to $45,000 for a research paper that provides guidance on pricing flood exposure.

Research Problem Description

Flood-inducing weather events, including hurricanes, excessive rainfall, and snowmelt, are increasing in frequency and severity around the world. While mitigation and adaptation measures are being implemented, their impact is difficult to evaluate. Excess rain and snowmelt often cause flooding of lakes and rivers. Urban flooding results from excess rain on continuous or impervious land, insufficient drainage system capacity, and reduced infiltration rates. Meanwhile, sunny day flooding in some low-lying coastal areas has no relationship to rain, is caused by sea level rise, full moon cycles and other factors.

As a result, developing rates for personal and commercial property coverage that accounts for flooding can be challenging. To price coverage precipitating from the tide of rising losses, the Casualty Actuarial Society’s (CAS) Climate and Sustainability Working Group is seeking a research paper that outlines a new or substantively extended practical and well-justified modeling solution for flood events that can be integrated into property insurance pricing.

The research paper should highlight the multiple factors involved in pricing for flood exposure and may address:

• Reliance on alternative data sources;
• Loss cost (including frequency and severity) development studies on flood exposure;
• Portfolio change adjustments such as growth in new geographic areas and increasing exposure in basements;
• The cost of capital for high frequency, lower severity flood events that typically fall below the threshold of most reinsurance catastrophic treaty attachment points; and
• The impact of mitigation or adaptation measures, including:

• Floodwalls around lakes and rivers to protect buildings;
• Upriver diversion canals to redirect excessive water from snowmelt or excessive rain;
• Sump pump or back water valves; and
• Improvement of municipal freshwater drainage systems.

Proposal Requirements

The proposal should outline anew or substantively enhanced practical and well-justified modeling solution for flood events that can be integrated into property insurance pricing.

The model should be:

• Structured and parameterized to accurately reflect potential flood losses;
• Flexible enough to adapt to the evolving nature of these risks over time;
• Easily applicable to a wide range of pricing use cases;
• Rooted in established principles of mathematical statistics, predictive modeling or other established fields with sound mathematical foundations; and
• The model should describe its components and parameters clearly, ensuring that it is understandable to an actuary working in insurance pricing. Extensive familiarity with advanced topics such as construction, engineering, or geoscience should not be required.

Additionally, the model, methods and processes should be explainable to insurance industry decision makers who may not have actuarial or statistical education or experience. Code or sample worksheets should provide easy-to-follow calculations and enable auditing and assumption adjustments. Material model assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties should be clearly communicated and quantified where appropriate.

In addition to a CAS-published research paper, the selected researchers must deliver a two- to three-page executive summary suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key takeaways from the paper and be understandable by a non-technical audience.

This paper is a sample of the type of end product the CAS is seeking: Catastrophe Models For Wildfire Mitigation: Quantifying Credits And Benefits to Homeowners and Communities 

Submitting Proposals

Interested researchers should submit a proposal that includes:

• A detailed outline and research approach.

• Labor expenses commensurate with the time required and other out-of-pocket expenses that should not exceed $45,000.
• Resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their background, education and experience demonstrate their qualifications to perform the research.
• Acknowledgement that authors must report the use of artificial intelligence, if any, while producing research.

Interested parties are welcome to submit questions about the RFP. All questions and responses will be circulated to those respondents who have submitted questions or who have expressed their intent to submit proposals by June 15, 2025 Submit questions and proposals to Olivia Curtis (ocurtis@casact.org), Program Coordinator, and copy to Joyce Warner (jwarner@casact.org ), Chief Business Officer “Pricing Model for Flood Exposure” must be in the subject line. Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged in a timely manner.

A CAS contract will be awarded to the researcher(s) who, in the judgment of the Climate and Sustainability Working Group, can best perform the specified work. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, no contract will be awarded.

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

Upon selection, the researcher(s) must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all rights, title, and interests, including copyright and patent rights of the report will be owned by the CAS. In any publication of the report, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate authorship credit.

Authors will be required to upload their final paper electronically in the CAS’s Scholar One system. To aid research adoption, the final work product’s code and data will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license. Researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

Timeline

About the Actuarial Society (CAS)

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a leading international organization for credentialing and professional education. Founded in 1914, the CAS is the world’s only actuarial organization focused exclusively on property and casualty risks and serves over 11,000 members worldwide. CAS members are experts in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, finance, risk management, and enterprise risk management. Professionals educated by the CAS empower business and government to make well-informed strategic, financial and operational decisions. To expand and enhance the skills of modern actuaries, the CAS supports research in a variety of areas.

About the Climate and Sustainability Working Group

The Climate and Sustainability Working Group addresses actuarial issues related to climate risk and sustainability within the Property-Casualty sector. It is a cross-functional body, providing guidance on climate and sustainability-related research, professional education, and outreach.

The Casualty Actuarial Society’s Risk Working Group is issuing a Request for Proposals (RFP) seeking research related to the use of AI in actuarial work. Compensation is up to $25,000. Proposals must be submitted by Tuesday, March 18, 2025.

Research Problem

The public release of ChatGPT and the GPT store has opened a wide range of possibilities for actuaries. Throughout 2023 and 2024, news reports of financial institutions and legal professions supplementing human work with AI has made headlines regardless of being characterized in a positive or negative manner. Could actuaries do well by automating certain aspects of their work through the use of analytical potential of ChatGPT or a similar tool? This research is attempts to bring this to reality.

Proposal and Work Product Requirements

We are seeking researchers to develop a custom AI tool (GPT or equivalent from other AI platforms) tailored for P&C actuarial work. The goal is to develop an AI tool that can perform basic actuarial work such as reserving, pricing or other analytics. The AI tool should refer to published methods by the Casualty Actuarial Society. The final work product should be able to perform a rudimentary analysis from a reasonably formatted data input. For instance, ChatGPT responses tend to describe the methodology rather than actually performing detailed analysis.

The intended users of the AI tool would be actuaries attempting to perform the same tasks. The proposed AI tool should be able to:

• Accept and comprehend standard data input (such as triangles) without additional processing by users.
• Follow a particular method if prompted, and if unprompted, determine the best method based on availability of data, appropriateness of method or other criteria.
• Produce numerical analysis results if data is supplied with a prompt.
• Output detailed analysis steps if prompted.

The initial research proposal should provide the following:

• A clear outline of the type of actuarial problem that the AI tool will address challenges in reserving, ratemaking or reinsurance that will be performed in a time frame including milestone dates.
• Estimated out-of-pocket expenses (such as subscriptions or cloud fees or both) necessary to complete the work.
• Resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research.
• Explain how the researcher plans to evaluate the output. Such evaluation should be quantitative and could either be derived from formula-driven methods, historical results, the researcher's own actuarial analysis, or other benchmarks.

Upon completion of the research, the researcher should deliver the following:

• AI tool similar to a custom GPT
• Sample prompts as a guide to new users of the tool
• A research paper documenting the development of the AI Tool and the quantitative evaluation of the Tool’s output. Authors will be required to upload their final paper electronically in the CAS’s Scholar One system.
• An executive summary (two-three pages) that would be suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key themes of the tool and be understandable by a non-technical audience.

The CAS contract will be awarded to the respondent who is best able to perform the work as specified herein. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, then no contract will be awarded. Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged in a timely manner. Respondents who are not awarded the contract will be informed shortly thereafter.

Interested researchers should submit their proposals via email and any questions to Elizabeth Smith, CAS director of publications and research.

Schedule for Project Completion

1. Proposal Deadline
   By Tuesday, March 18, 2025, researchers should submit a one- to two-page proposal that includes a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed and the approach to be taken. Proposals should be emailed to Elizabeth Smith, director of publications and research, with “2025 Risk Working Group GPT Proposal” in the subject line of the message.
2. Proposal selection
   By Friday, April 18, 2025, the Risk Working Group will accept or reject proposals. The number of accepted proposals may be limited. Researchers will be contacted shortly following the selection process.
3. Monitoring Progress
   The selected researcher(s) and working group review team will establish a mutually agreeable schedule to check progress on the GPT project.
4. Prototype Due
   By Monday, June 16, 2025, a prototype of the completed GPT should be submitted to the working group review team.
5. Final Project Completion
   Date By Monday, July 14, 2025, a prototype of the completed GPT should be submitted to the working group review team.

Compensation

Compensation to researchers will be commensurate with the time required to carry out the work. Respondents should include an estimate of cost in their proposals. Costs of the proposal are encouraged to include considerations for the use of subscriptions to GPT developing sites such as OpenAI. Total cost should not exceed $25,000.

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

As a condition of selection, the CAS requires that all right, title, and interest, including copyright and patent, in and to the report and executive summary be owned by the CAS. The selected researcher/research team must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all such rights to the CAS. In any publication of the report and summary, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate credit with regard to authorship. The CAS may publish the report and summary in their entirety, or any sections thereof, in any format and medium as it finds fit, including but not limited to CAS publications, and electronic versions such as on its Web site or physical storage media.

To aid research adoption, the CAS encourages the final work product’s code, specification and data be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license (as applicable). The researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

About the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The CAS was organized in 1914 as a professional society for the promotion of actuarial and statistical science as applied to insurance other than life insurance, such as automobile, liability other than automobile, workers compensation, fire, homeowners, commercial multiple peril, and others. Such promotion is accomplished by communication with those affected by insurance, presentation and discussion of papers, attendance at seminars and workshops, collection of a library, research, and other means. The membership of the CAS includes over 10,000 actuaries worldwide, employed by insurance companies, industry advisory organizations, national brokers, accounting firms, educational institutions, state insurance departments, the federal government, and independent consultants.

About the CAS Risk Working Group

The CAS Risk Working Group addresses actuarial issues of property and casualty insurance risk modeling, quantification, theoretical research and applicational methods in capital modeling, pricing, and reserving. The working group is charged with proposing, supporting and promoting innovative research and practical projects that enable the evaluation of risk, as well as with connecting CAS membership with the results of our supported research and projects.

The Casualty Actuarial Society’s (CAS) Reinsurance Working Group is offering up to $75,000 for a research project that advances the quantitative estimation and prediction of specific aspects of social inflation for at least one insurance line. Proposals are due Monday, January 27, 2025.

Research Problem Description

Social inflation describes several potential cost drivers in insurance claims. Identifying and quantifying cost drivers attempts to explain why liability claim sizes are growing much faster than other economic indicators, such as consumer inflation. Various theories have been proposed to account for claim size growth, such as, litigation patterns, methods used by the plaintiffs' bar, third-party litigation funding and changes in public sentiment. A significant class of these cost drivers can also be considered legal system abuse. The degree to which each contributes is unknown and sometimes disputed.

While there has been considerable research on social inflation overall, more inquiry is necessary to isolate and quantify individual factors contributing to social inflation, such as predicting the future rate of change per factor or determining how legislative changes may curtail or exacerbate individual factors. Further complicating actuarial analysis is that these effects may not be strictly proportional to size of claim. Because insurance policies are written across a range of states, policyholder types, and limit sizes, reinsurers and reinsurance actuaries are particularly interested in better understanding how the largest claims are growing.

Research on large lines by premium such as general liability or auto liability is preferred over small lines like cyber liability or construction defect. Papers may focus on one or more facets of social inflation, but the results should be both specific and defined. Any parameter estimations should include values for the most recent 10 years or more. Tests that include holdout or reserves datasets are preferred; test performance with a holdout dataset should be included.

Example projects may include, but are not limited to, the following:

• Evaluating the effectiveness of tort caps in mitigating claims growth by assessing how claim sizes differ by state and by tort cap. This may include investigating the rate at which claims circumvent tort caps by seeking redress in federal courts and how this influences claim size over time.
• Assessing how claim size is increasing based on size of claim, such as looking at movement of settlement sizes over time limited to various values between $500K and $100M.
• Quantifying the effects of third-party litigation by comparing claims sizes in states that do and do not allow third-party litigation funding, controlling for other factors. Natural experiments may exist where a state has recently banned or allowed third-party litigation funding or made similar policy changes.
• Considering and quantifying other factors that are classified as legal system abuse, such as plaintiffs’ willingness to settle and the mix of jury versus bench trials, and how these factors specifically influence claim size.

Many of these lines of inquiry require data that is either expensive to access or may require considerable work to collect. Because of this, the funds being made available are considerably larger than the CAS Reinsurance Working Group’s usual requests for proposals. Depending on the type of research, the CAS can provide access to S&P and other datasets.

Proposal Requirements

Researcher(s) should be able to develop practical methods and tools that address the challenges involved in pricing policies subject to social inflation for reinsurers, excess insurers or both. The ideal candidate will furnish models or develop trend estimates or both and provide understandable technical recommendations.

Methods should have sound mathematical foundations, rooted in established principles of actuarial standards. The project’s results produced must be quantitative and usable. Researchers should provide specific point estimates for factors and some indication of variability around each point.

Code or sample worksheets that may be used to generate any quantitative estimates should also be provided so that users of the work product are able to follow the calculations, audit the code, and adjust priors as needed.

Moreover, methods and processes should be explainable to insurance industry decision makers who may not have the experience or education of the actuary implementing the testing or integrating industry benchmarks. In addition to producing a research paper that will be published by the CAS, the selected researchers should also deliver an executive summary of the paper (two to three pages) that would be suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key themes of the paper and be understandable by a nontechnical audience.

Submitting Proposals

Proposals should include a clear outline of the work that will be performed and corresponding time frame to meet the final deadline of Monday, October 6, 2025. The proposal should be accompanied by the resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their backgrounds, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. The $75,000 project funding includes money to acquire or license necessary data.

The CAS contract will be awarded to the respondent who, in the judgment of the CAS Reinsurance Working Group and entirely based on the written proposal, is best able to perform the work as specified herein. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, no contract will be awarded. Interested parties are welcome to submit questions about the RFP before the proposal deadline of Monday, January 27, 2025.

Interested researchers should submit their proposals and any questions to Annmarie Geddes Baribeau, CAS research manager and copy Elizabeth Smith, CAS director of publications and research, by Monday, January 27, 2025. Proposal submissions should write “Reinsurance RFP Proposal” in the subject line.

Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged in a timely manner. Respondents who are not awarded the contract will be informed shortly thereafter.

Compensation

Compensation to researchers will be commensurate with the time required to carry out the work.

Many of these lines of inquiry require data that is either expensive to access or may require considerable work to collect. Because of this, the funds being made available are considerably larger than the CAS Reinsurance Working Group’s usual requests for proposals. Depending on the type of research, the CAS can provide access to S&P and other datasets.

Respondents should include an estimate of cost in their proposals, including furnishing or producing datasets. The total cost should not exceed $75,000. Authors must report use of artificial intelligence, if any, while producing research. Authors will be required to upload their final paper electronically in the CAS’s Scholar One system.

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

As a condition of selection, the CAS requires that all rights, title, and interest, including copyright and patent, in and to the report be owned by the CAS. The selected researcher/research team must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all such rights to the CAS. In any publication of the report, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate authorship credit. The CAS may publish the report in its entirety, or any sections thereof, in any format and medium as it finds fit, including, but not limited to CAS publications, and electronic versions on its website or physical storage media. To aid research adoption, the final work product’s code and data will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license.

The researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

Timeline

About the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The CAS was organized in 1914 as a professional society for the promotion of actuarial and statistical science as applied to insurance other than life insurance, such as automobile, liability other than automobile, workers compensation, fire, homeowners, commercial multiple peril, and others. Such promotion is accomplished by communication with those affected by insurance, presentation and discussion of papers, attendance at seminars and workshops, collection of a library, research, and other means. The membership of the CAS includes over 10,000 actuaries worldwide, employed by insurance companies, industry advisory organizations, national brokers, accounting firms, educational institutions, state insurance departments, the federal government and independent consultants.

About the Reinsurance Working Group

The Reinsurance Working Group addresses actuarial issues related to property and casualty ceded and assumed reinsurance. The group's charge includes furthering the development and dissemination of actuarial practice, theory, and principles of reinsurance; identifying topics for research and discussion; monitoring professional developments and regulatory activities; establishing liaisons with other organizations working in this area; and sponsoring panels, seminars and other public forums on reinsurance issues.

The CAS Ratemaking Working Group is issuing a Request for Proposals (RFP) seeking research related to the development of scaling laws in pure premium models for use in the ratemaking process.

Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The CAS was organized in 1914 as a professional society for the promotion of actuarial and statistical science as applied to insurance other than life insurance, such as automobile, liability other than automobile, workers compensation, fire, homeowners, commercial multiple peril, and others. Such promotion is accomplished by communication with those affected by insurance, presentation and discussion of papers, attendance at seminars and workshops, collection of a library, research, and other means. The membership of the CAS includes over 10,000 actuaries worldwide, employed by insurance companies, industry advisory organizations, national brokers, accounting firms, educational institutions, state insurance departments, the federal government, and independent consultants.

Ratemaking Working Group

The Ratemaking Working Group addresses actuarial issues of property and casualty insurance ratemaking including risk classification. The committee's charge includes furthering the development and dissemination of ratemaking theory and principles; identifying topics for research and discussion; monitoring professional developments and regulatory activities; and sponsoring panels, seminars, and other public forums on ratemaking issues.

Research Problem Description

Over the past 5 years, large language models have been the hottest area of machine learning research.  In the pursuit of improving these models, the primary debate has been how to best go about improving them.  Is it more data?  A larger neural network?  An entirely different type of model?  More training time?  A different network architecture?  A key piece of research that led to a push for ever increasing datasets and network sizes was Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models (2020, Kaplan et al).  In this work, the researchers were able to approximate power laws for the scaling of large language models which in turn were used to guide future model development in terms of volume of data and model size (generally, more data and bigger networks). 

Actuaries regularly face similar questions in their day-to-day work, often within their companies but also regularly between consultants and their clients or between regulators and carriers:  How much data is needed to build a 'good' model?  Have I saturated my model with variables?  How much data is needed to answer a business problem? 

While actuaries have had classical credibility to fall back on in the case of a rate indication (portfolio) to answer these questions, it becomes much more amorphous in a multivariate setting.  As such, it is proposed that actuaries carry out similar research for pure premium modeling in an insurance context.  The resulting scaling law would serve as a benchmark for all interested parties on model performance across a range of dataset sizes. 

Proposal and Work Product Requirements

We are seeking researchers to develop a scaling law for insurance ratemaking (pure premium modeling). Ideally, research would be conducted on a large dataset (>>1 million earned car years) but simulated data could be used in lieu and the final work products would include code, data, and a scaling law.  The CAS has a dataset that can be used for the purposes of this RFP on a confidential basis.  In selecting a dataset to use (CAS dataset, simulated, or other), respondents should consider trade-offs such as real-world vs. simulated data, the size of the dataset, the ability to know effect sizes and correlations in the dataset on an a priori basis.

Methods should have sound mathematical foundations, rooted in established principles of ratemaking. With that understood, the techniques within a method should be intelligible to an actuary working in insurance pricing. Concepts and techniques from the broader machine learning discipline are strongly recommended to be drawn on.

In addition to producing a research paper that will be published by the CAS, the selected researchers should also deliver an executive summary of the paper (two-three pages) that would be suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key themes of the paper and be understandable by a non-technical audience.     

The purposes of this are twofold - to better enable peer review of the research by the CAS and to facilitate the adoption of this research by CAS members.  To aid research adoption, the code will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license.

Proposals should include a clear outline of the work that will be performed and the time frame in which it will be performed (including key dates). The proposal should be accompanied by the resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research.

The CAS contract will be awarded to the respondent who - in the judgment of the Ratemaking Working Group and entirely based on their written proposal - is best able to perform the work as specified herein. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, then no contract will be awarded.

Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged in a timely manner. Respondents who are not awarded the contract will be informed shortly thereafter.

Interested researchers should submit their proposals via email and any questions to:
Elizabeth Smith, Director of Publications and Research
Casualty Actuarial Society
esmith@casact.org

Timeline

Compensation

Compensation to researchers will be commensurate with the time required to carry out the work. Respondents should include an estimate of cost in their proposals. Costs of the proposal are encouraged to include considerations for the use of cloud computing resources.  Total cost should not exceed $45,000. 

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

As a condition of selection, the CAS requires that all right, title, and interest, including copyright and patent, in and to the report and executive summary be owned by the CAS. The selected researcher/research team must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all such rights to the CAS. In any publication of the report and summary, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate credit with regard to authorship. The CAS may publish the report and summary in their entirety, or any sections thereof, in any format and medium as it finds fit, including but not limited to CAS publications, and electronic versions such as on its Web site or physical storage media.

The researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

The CAS Ratemaking Working Group is issuing a Request for Proposals (RFP) seeking research related to methods and techniques that incorporate exposures related to severe convective storm in the ratemaking process.

Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS)

The CAS was organized in 1914 as a professional society for the promotion of actuarial and statistical science as applied to insurance other than life insurance, such as automobile, liability other than automobile, workers compensation, fire, homeowners, commercial multiple peril, and others. Such promotion is accomplished by communication with those affected by insurance, presentation and discussion of papers, attendance at seminars and workshops, collection of a library, research, and other means. The membership of the CAS includes over 10,000 actuaries worldwide, employed by insurance companies, industry advisory organizations, national brokers, accounting firms, educational institutions, state insurance departments, the federal government, and independent consultants.

Ratemaking Working Group

The Ratemaking Working Group addresses actuarial issues of property and casualty insurance ratemaking including risk classification. The committee's charge includes furthering the development and dissemination of ratemaking theory and principles; identifying topics for research and discussion; monitoring professional developments and regulatory activities; and sponsoring panels, seminars, and other public forums on ratemaking issues.

Research Problem Description

Developing rates for property products which are impacted by severe convective storms (“SCS”) can be challenging.  SCS events can cause damage to insured properties stemming from multiple natural elements including lightning, tornadoes, hail, and straight-line wind, all of which are difficult to predict from a ratemaking perspective.

Pricing for SCS events is further complicated by changing climate conditions, expanding exposure landscapes, changing portfolios over time, limited accuracy of vendor-based catastrophe modeling for SCS perils, increasing insurer retentions for CAT-exposed programs, the increasing cost of capital in the current inflationary economic environment, and the shrinking availability of affordable reinsurance.

The group is, therefore, seeking to broaden the available material on the topic of pricing for SCS exposures addressing the following:
Primary Carrier Perspective

• Reliance on alternative data sources available to carriers such as meteorological surveys when considering provisions for SCS exposures in the ratemaking process
• Loss cost development studies that incorporate SCS exposures distinct from standard vendor-based catastrophe model output
• Incorporating SCS loss costs into non-by-peril rating
• Adjusting for portfolios changes such as growth in a new geography and expanding landscapes
• Procedures to test the adequacy of rates for SCS exposures such as comparing actual experience to historical projections and/or other benchmarks

Reinsurance Implications

• Accounting for reinsurance costs in premium related to SCS exposures
• Impact of reinsurance availability at affordable prices
• Managing the cost of capital for high frequency, lower severity SCS events that typically fall below the threshold of most reinsurance CAT treaty attachment points

Proposal and Work Product Requirements

We are seeking researchers to develop a paper outlining ratemaking approaches for SCS perils that might consider some of the challenges set forth above, such as alternative data sources, reliance on methods other than standard vendor-based catastrophe modeling, portfolio changes and related reinsurance implications.

Methods should have sound mathematical foundations, rooted in established principles of ratemaking, with an emphasis on SCS perils. With that understood, the techniques within a method should be intelligible to an actuary working in property insurance pricing and should not pre-suppose extensive familiarity with advanced topics. Moreover, methods and processes should be explainable to insurance industry decision makers who may not have the experience or education of the actuary conducting the work.

In addition to producing a research paper that will be published by the CAS, the selected researchers should also deliver an executive summary of the paper (two-three pages) that would be suitable as a blog post or magazine article. This summary should highlight the key themes of the paper and be understandable by a non-technical audience.

The work product will include any and all computer programs (code) used to perform the research.  The purposes of this are twofold - to better enable peer review of the research by the CAS and to facilitate the adoption of this research by CAS members.  To aid research adoption, the code will also be placed in the CAS’s GitHub repository, https://github.com/casact, under the MPL2.0 license.

Proposals should include a clear outline of the work that will be performed and the time frame in which it will be performed (including key dates). The proposal should be accompanied by the resumes of the researcher(s), indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research.

The CAS contract will be awarded to the respondent who — in the judgment of the Ratemaking Working Group and entirely based on their written proposal — is best able to perform the work as specified herein. If the group determines that no proposal meets the requirements of the RFP, then no contract will be awarded.

Receipt of proposals will be acknowledged in a timely manner. Respondents who are not awarded the contract will be informed shortly thereafter.

Interested researchers should submit their proposals and any questions to:
Elizabeth Smith, Director of Publications and Research
Casualty Actuarial Society
esmith@casact.org

Timeline

Compensation

Compensation to researchers will be commensurate with the time required to carry out the work. Respondents should include an estimate of cost in their proposals. Total cost should not exceed $45,000.

Presentation, Ownership and Publication of Report

As a condition of selection, the CAS requires that all right, title, and interest, including copyright and patent, in and to the report and executive summary be owned by the CAS. The selected researcher/research team must sign a formal research agreement that assigns all such rights to the CAS. In any publication of the report and summary, the researcher(s) will receive appropriate credit with regard to authorship. The CAS may publish the report and summary in their entirety, or any sections thereof, in any format and medium as it finds fit, including but not limited to CAS publications, and digital versions such as on its Web site.

The researcher(s) should make every effort to be available to present the report at a CAS meeting or seminar.

The Casualty Actuarial Society, in conjunction with the CAS Monograph Committee, is pleased to extend a Call for Monographs on the topic of “Big Data, Machine Learning and Beyond.” The call aims to develop a comprehensive source of literature with emphasis on the educational and professional needs of actuaries to foster deeper understanding of Machine Learning algorithms and their potential application in practice.

According to the U.S. Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 56 Modeling:

3.2 UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL
When expressing an opinion on or communicating results of the model, the actuary should understand the following:
a. important aspects of the model being used, including but not limited to, basic operations, important dependencies, and major sensitivities;
b. known weaknesses in assumptions used as input, known weaknesses in methods or other known limitations of the model that have material implications; and
c. limitations of data or information, time constraints, or other practical considerations that could materially impact the model’s ability to meet its intended purpose.

Machine Learning offers extreme modeling flexibility that can reveal hidden relationships and insights which might be overlooked by traditional modeling techniques; however, it is also criticized for its lack of interpretability. In response to the growing gap between the increasing interest and adoption of AI in P&C insurance industry versus the lack of consolidated materials available for actuaries in AI field, it is crucial to develop an in-depth educational resource at the current stage. Some examples of specific topics this monograph may address include:

• The current stage of big data in P&C insurance industry such as telematics data
• Different types of Machine Learning (Supervised, Unsupervised and Reinforcement Learning)
• Statistical explanation (model specifications, model assumptions and inherent limitations) on those popular ML algorithms such as Decision Tree, Random Forests, Gradient Boosting Regression, XGBoost, etc., and Deep Learning architectures including CNN, RNN, etc.
• ML modeling process and its application in practice such as feature engineering, fraud detection, ratemaking and granular reserving estimation, etc.

The call is not intended to document every technique, as the AI field is also evolving quickly with advances in technology. Instead, the purpose of the monograph is to provide a fundamental and thorough knowledge on the topic. As such, actuaries should continue to increase the depth and breadth of their knowledge to be able to discern the most appropriate technique for a given situation.

To cultivate a better educational outcome and facilitate future research, it is encouraged that the monograph be accompanied by tools or code to be posted on the CAS GitHub that allows the techniques discussed to be implemented

Authors must submit their work in accordance with the Guidelines for Submission of Monographs. The monographs will be subject to peer review prior to final acceptance.

SCOPE

The monograph series seeks to present a balanced perspective with respect to alternative approaches to solution of a given class of problems and to foster critical thinking. Although original research is encouraged, these monographs are primarily educational.  Approaches providing balanced and critical evaluation of alternative methodologies are particularly welcome. Conditions of optimal application and the advantages/disadvantages of use should be explored, making it easier for a practitioner to choose suitable methods.

SUBMISSION GUIDELINES

Monographs should be prepared in accordance with the Variance template. Authors will be required to execute a copyright agreement form, which formally grants the CAS permission to publish the paper. Authors are encouraged to submit working templates in spreadsheets or other open-source formats for models or methods discussed or developed in their papers. These spreadsheets and/or programs will be posted on the CAS website along with the monographs.

TIMETABLE

Timely submission according to the timetable outlined below would ensure that a paper will be ready for presentation at an upcoming, related CAS seminar or meeting.

1. Deadline for Proposals: By January 15, 2024, authors should submit proposals, including the title, a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed, and the approach that will be taken. Each proposal should be accompanied by the resumes of the author(s), indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the project. A list of the authors’ publications, along with authors’ contact information, should be included with the proposal, submitted via email to the Casualty Actuarial Society, droyston@casact.org.
2. Acceptance of Proposals: By March 29, 2024, the Committee will decide on all proposals and will contact authors accordingly.
3. Monitoring Progress: A committee member will be assigned to work with each author to monitor the paper’s progress and to provide general guidance for completion of the paper. Interim drafts, based on a schedule proposed by the author, may be requested.
4. Complete Draft: By September 30, 2024, the completed paper and a 200-word abstract must be received. Each paper will be screened to assure its quality of exposition and relevance to the call.
5. Final Submission: Subject to the peer review process, accepted monographs will be due to the CAS, to be published and be available on the CAS website.

QUESTIONS

Any questions on this Call may be addressed to Donna Royston at droyston@casact.org

The Casualty Actuarial Society, in conjunction with the CAS Monograph Committee, is pleased to extend a call for monographs on the related topics of Capital Modeling and Portfolio Management. The purpose of this call is to develop a source of literature with emphasis on the educational and professional needs of actuaries to develop and utilize capital models.

The ideal monograph will provide practicing actuaries with an authoritative introduction to Capital Modeling and integration in insurance company operations and decision making. In practice, capital models are often sourced from rating agencies, regulators or 3rd party vendors. This monograph should give actuaries the ability to assess the quality of the various offerings and recognize the benefits and limitations of the various offerings. Ideally, the monograph would go further and detail the development and parameterization of a specific simplified example, giving actuaries the tools to start building internal proprietary models.

A focus of the monograph should be on integrating the capital model into insurance company operations, given an existing capital model. The monograph should detail specific use-cases of the Capital Model, including but not limited to:

• Capital Allocation techniques
• Calculating return-on-capital at various segmentation levels
• Assessing reinsurance treaty options
• Integrating capital models directly into policy-level premium determination
• Portfolio Assessment and Optimization
• Correlation considerations
• Systemic Risk Analysis

All monographs are encouraged to be accompanied by tools or code that allows the techniques discussed to be implemented, or include links to open source software and code for this purpose.

Topics noted within this Call for Monographs are not only of interest to many practicing actuaries but may also be of interest to the CAS Syllabus Committee. The Monograph Editorial Board especially welcomes proposals that enrich material currently used to train P&C actuaries. This means that monographs that are highly readable and are structurally amenable to having questions set from them are preferred. Authors are encouraged, but not required, to include examples and exercises that help teach the concepts being explained.

Authors must submit their work in accordance with the Guidelines for Submission of Monographs. The monographs will be subject to peer review prior to final acceptance. Authors of monographs that are accepted within the timeline outlined below may be invited to present their work at a related CAS Seminar or Meeting.

SCOPE

The monograph series seeks to present a balanced perspective with respect to alternative approaches to solution of a given class of problems and to foster critical thinking. Although original research is encouraged, these monographs are primarily educational.  Approaches providing balanced and critical evaluation of alternative methodologies are particularly welcome. Conditions of optimal application and the advantages/disadvantages of use should be explored, making it easier for a practitioner to choose suitable methods.

SUBMISSION GUIDELINES

Monographs should be prepared in accordance with the Variance Template, and the procedures in the Guide for Submission of Monographs. Authors will be required to execute a copyright agreement form, which formally grants the CAS permission to publish the paper. Authors are encouraged to submit working templates in spreadsheets or other open-source formats for models or methods discussed or developed in their papers. These spreadsheets and/or programs will be posted on the CAS website along with the monographs.

TIMETABLE

Timely submission according to the timetable outlined below would ensure that a paper will be ready for presentation at an upcoming, related CAS seminar or meeting.

1. Deadline for Proposals: By January 15, 2024, authors should submit proposals, including the title, a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed, and the approach that will be taken. Each proposal should be accompanied by the resumes of the author(s), indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the project. A list of the authors’ publications, along with authors’ contact information, should be included with the proposal, submitted via email to the Casualty Actuarial Society, droyston@casact.org.
2. Acceptance of Proposals: By March 29, 2024, the Committee will decide on all proposals and will contact authors accordingly.
3. Monitoring Progress: A committee member will be assigned to work with each author to monitor the paper’s progress and to provide general guidance for completion of the paper. Interim drafts, based on a schedule proposed by the author, may be requested.
4. Complete Draft: By September 30, 2024, the completed paper and a 200-word abstract must be received. Each paper will be screened to assure its quality of exposition and relevance to the call.
5. Final Submission: Subject to the peer review process, accepted monographs will be due to the CAS, to be published and be available on the CAS website.

QUESTIONS

Any questions on this Call may be addressed to Donna Royston at droyston@casact.org