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Four new papers have been published on the Variance website:
Approximating the Aggregate Loss Distribution
by Dmitry E. Papush, Aleksey S. Popelyukhin, and Jasmine G. Zhang
The paper studies which statistical distribution is the most appropriate to use for the approximation of the Aggregate distribution of insurance claims.
The Skewness of Bornhuetter-Ferguson
by E. Dal Moro
The Joint Risk Management Section of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, and the Society of Actuaries will oversee an online survey to help understand individual risk managers' perspectives on emerging risks. We value insights from all levels of experience and background and invite you to participate in this annual survey.
Deep neural network models have substantial advantages over traditional and machine learning methods that make this class of models particularly promising for adoption by actuaries. In the past few years, many different applications of these models have appeared in the actuarial literature.
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New papers have been published on the Variance website:
Remarks about “One-Year and Total Run-Off Reserve Risk Estimators Based on Historical Ultimate Estimates” by Filippo Siegenthaler
By René Dahms
In the spirit of Cyber Monday, the CAS is offering a 25% off one-day-only discount on select 2021 seminar/meeting recordings and special bundles. This deal is only available for the day of: November 29, 2021. The deadline to be CE compliant is December 31, 2021! Please note this price is for individuals only.
Available Products at a discount (25% off - reflected below)
The CAS recently joined around 400 students and advisors representing 45 colleges and universities and more than 200 industry representatives in Columbus, Ohio for the Gamma Iota Sigma (GIS) Annual International Conference. As a Sustaining Partner of GIS and Platinum Conference Sponsor, the CAS had a major presence, presenting three educational sessions and interacting with students and university faculty at the career fair and throughout the conference.
Due to a rising number of Covid-19 cases in the area, we have cancelled this in-person event. Reimbursements are being processed for those who already registered. Stay tuned for information about upcoming virtual sessions and plans for an in-person gathering in 2022.
The Casualty Actuarial Society is proud to present its first-ever Annual China Summit, taking place November 11-12, 2021 in Changsha, China. This in-person event will be conducted in Mandarin and will complement the CAS Annual Meeting.
Volunteerism is a core value of the CAS and over 1/3 of CAS members give back to the Society by volunteering! Volunteering helps you build your network, influence the direction of the CAS , and expand your skills!
We have added new features to the VIP Survey to accommodate our evolving Volunteer-Staff Framework, in which volunteer interests and skillsets are better matched with volunteer assignments, and volunteers are leveraged for their subject matter expertise and thought leadership, while advising CAS staff.
A new paper has been published on the Variance website.
Self-Assembling Insurance Claim Models Using Regularized Regression and Machine Learning By Gráinne McGuire, Greg Taylor, and Hugh Miller
The mission of this section is to advance the actuarial profession by assisting members of the section with the education, research, networking and other special needs that arise in the risk management section of actuarial science.
Our August update about on-demand education available from UCAS features content from our recent webinars and our wildfire and flood microlearning series!
As part of the CAS Strategic Approach to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DE&I) adopted by the Board of Directors in September 2020, the CAS has committed to setting concrete goals and maintaining transparency and accountability on progress on our DE&I initiatives.
As part of the CAS Strategic Approach to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DE&I) adopted by the Board of Directors in September 2020, the CAS has committed to setting concrete goals and maintaining transparency and accountability on progress on our DE&I initiatives. To this end, we have built a set of detailed demographic metrics for CAS members and candidates, designed to help us understand the current state of diversity in the CAS, set goals, and track changes over time.
The Casualty Actuarial Society recently published a new piece of research with potential immediate applications in individual claims forecasting. Part of the new CAS Research Paper series, “Individual Claims Forecasting with Bayesian Mixture Density Networks” is written by Kevin Kuo and introduces an individual claims forecasting framework utilizing Bayesian mixture density networks; the paper outlines a modeling framework that uses a publicly available data simulation tool.
The Casualty Actuarial Society recently published a new piece of research for members and risk management experts whose work could benefit from the use of economic scenario generators (ESGs). A User’s Guide to Economic Scenario Generation in Property/Casualty Insurance provides a basic guide to ESGs and has useful implications for insurance practitioners in the fields of enterprise risk management, capital modeling, asset liability management, finance and valuation.
Our September update about on-demand education available from UCAS features content from our new ASOP 1 Microlearning Series and our recent webinars!
This talk will describe different approaches to measuring and modeling underwriting risk, based on US statutory data. It will show that for some lines there is more uncertainty in premiums than there is in losses. It will analyze the underwriting cycle using a unique time series back to 1923. This identifies three distinct periods, the latest starting with the 1986 hard market. Then, it will analyze the dynamics of loss, premium and loss ratio by major line grouping since 1992.
