Browse Research
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1981
The aim of this paper is to discuss the methods that can be used to forecast the shape of a size of loss distribution in some future time period based on its shape in the recent past. In other words we will examine the ways one can adjust historical loss distributions for "trend". Section (1) of this paper provides a working definition and an example of the term "trend" as it is used in the ratemaking sense.
1981
The president of a major insurance brokerage firm recently observed that: "During the past 25 years, with one minor variation, three years of underwriting gains have been followed precisely by three years of underwriting losses. "I This view of cyclical patterns in the industry is confirmed by the trade literature which calls it the underwriting cycle.
1981
Analysis of economic data indicates that inflation has both increased and become more variable over the last fifteen years. Inflation has a considerable effect on insurance profitability by impacting both components of insurance operations, underwriting and investments.
1981
This paper appears to be a logical outgrowth of Mr. D'Arcy's earlier paper entitled An Illustration of the Impact of Inflation On Insurance Company Operations which was a part of the 1979 Call Paper Program.
1981
Data Collection & Statistical Reporting (general or introductory)
1981
The introductory paper for the "Sea-Saw" regression based reserve forecast method. This method estimates average cost per claim closed (finalized) and incorporates the rate of claims finalization in the forecast. This is a regression-based method and thus incorporates a specific underlying stochastic model.
1981
Exposure Bases/LOB-Medical Malpractice
1981
A major contribution to the success of an insurance company is the protection of its assets and hence net worth from the ravages of inflation. This protection is provided when there is good asset-liability management. There are many strategies which seek to optimize this protection.
1981
One goal of an insurance company in the management of assets is to have enough cash on hand (or invested assets that can be sold for cash) to pay claims and expenses when they are due. The recent economic environment of inflation and the attendant high level of interest rates has had two adverse effects on insurance companies' ability to attain this goal. One adverse impact is the increase in cash needs to pay claims and expenses.
1981
At the present time the regulators have two early warning systems to assist in identifying financially troubled insurers. These are the NAIC IRIS rations and the AIA Index of Financial Strength. This paper recommends a third. The goal of each of these systems is to identify the financially troubled company that can be helped to regain an acceptable financial footing.
1981
Compound distributions such as the compound Poisson and the compound negative binomial are used extensively in the theory of risk to model the distribution of the total claims incurred in a fixed period of time. The usual method of evaluating the distribution function requires the computation of many convolutions of the conditional distribution of the amount of a claim given that a claim has occurred.
1981
LOB-Auto Physical Damage/Regulation
1981
When reviewing a paper, one cannot help but be somewhat awed by the amount of effort and time that is consumed in the preparation and execution of this task. One is also drawn to the conclusion that more needs to be done. One can also be thankful. Mr. Masterson's paper falls into all of these categories. His paper is in fact a sequel to one published in these Proceedings.
1981
An important topic of the general subject of Inflation Implications on Property-Casualty Insurance is Communicating with the Public. The emphasis in this paper will be on influences of general U. S. inflation which are causing severe problems for all lines of insurance, particularly lines which are of critical concern to the policyholder public. The discussion link between general U. S. inflation and the Property-Casualty lines will be the U. S.
1981
We develop Hachemeister's regression model 111 credibility theory (without proofs) and indicate how the involved structural parameters can be estimated from the observable variables (with proofs for the simple results and those not yet published).
1981
The notion of ordering and danger of claim size distributions is extended to claim frequency distributions.
Reinsurance Research - Loss Distributions, Size of
1981
The paper is addressed to an intelligent layman in the insurance industry who may not be familiar with operations of the American banking system. As a result, the operation of the central bank, the definitions of money, the author's definitions of price and monetary inflation, the relationships between measures of money and Gross National Product are all discussed before prospects of the new policy's success is discussed.
1981
This paper does extend actuarial horizons beyond the trade ratio and other devices related to the underwriting portion of our business. In an inflationary environment the financial and investment potentials and pitfalls become more and more dominant.
1981
Mr. Shatoff has presented a concise and straightforward model depicting the reporting, reserving and settling of claims. In this age of complex econometric models which attempt to account for N-tuples of factors which may or may not significantly influence the observable phenomenon being studied, it is often easy to overlook the power inherent in a simple model to isolate the crucial factors involved.
1981
Along with the rest of the economy, the insurance industry has felt the profound effects of the fluctuating inflation rates of the last several years. Insurance rates must be set to pay for future events; therefore, they have to consider future inflation in claim costs. Similarly, because losses often are paid considerably after the event causing the loss, inflation will affect the adequacy of loss reserves.
