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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
New Annual Statement Instruction for the Actuarial Opinion-Regulatory Guidance
The NAIC has published Annual Statement Instructions for the Statutory Statement of Actuarial Opinion that include significant revisions. Appointed actuaries should be aware of the changes as they prepare for rendering their opinions. A panel of regulatory actuaries will present the new Instructions and identify the major changes. The Casualty Actuarial Task Force of the NAIC is also planning to issue an annual document with regulatory guidance on issues of importance for appointed actuaries. A draft of that document will be exposed at this session. The CATF solicits feedback at the CLRS from practicing actuaries before issuing the final document.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Mary Miller
Keywords:
Annual Statement Instruction for the Actuarial Opinion
A Legal Eye for the Actuary Guy (and Gal)
Standard & Poor's has criticized casualty actuaries for having "an abysmal record" of "signed off on reserves that turn out to be wildly inaccurate" and has accused them of "naiveté or knavery." Do casualty actuaries need a makeover? In this session, attorneys experienced in defending actuaries in malpractice cases will share their insights, including their opinions on management pressure on actuarial reserve estimates. Come learn how to "makeover" your practice so you can (1) reduce the risk that you or your company will be sued, and (2) increase the probability that any lawsuit alleging actuarial malpractice will be unsuccessful.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
R. Muth, Sandra Brown
Keywords:
Legal
Professionalism in Reserving-Do I Really Want to Do That?
Session attendees will learn the objectives and get a brief description of the CAS Committee on Professionalism Education, followed by a debate on some of the issues that an actuary might face while developing reserve estimates. Two CAS Fellows will discuss differences on what may or may not be acceptable behavior when setting reserves.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Thomas DeFalco, Patrick Gilhool
Keywords:
Reserving, Professionalism
The Reserving Actuary's Interaction with Underwriting and Marketing
While reserving actuaries normally spend significant amounts of time dealing directly with financial reporting departments of insurance companies, they also may interact significantly with other areas of the companies. This session will discuss how the reserving actuary affects and influences these other areas, such as underwriting and marketing and, conversely, how these areas within a company provide the reserving actuary with input and insight into reserving matters.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Gary Koupf, Barry Bablin, Hayden Burrus
Keywords:
Reserving, Underwriting, Marketing
Where and Why Reserving and Pricing Actuaries Part Company
Both pricing and reserving actuaries need distributions of accident year ultimate losses, both nominal and discounted, but what they do with the distributions differ. Both need to consider uncertainty in coming up with a single number-the reserves to be booked for the reserving actuary and the amount to be charged for the pricing actuary.
The similarity ends there, however. Though both targets are uncertain, the reserving actuary's target is relatively fixed-the incidents generating the losses have occurred, though legal interpretations and the like may move that target somewhat. The pricing actuary's target is moving; the incidents that will generate losses have not even occurred yet.
This session will explore how the pricing and reserving actuaries approach their different tasks armed with the same information: an estimate of the distribution of losses.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Rodney Kreps
Keywords:
Reserving and Pricing
Managing a Loss Reserving Department and Communicating Results
Managing a loss reserving department depends on the structure of the organization and the information needs of company management. What level of detail is needed for the data used in the loss reserving analysis? After the actuarial analysis is completed what information should be communicated? How often should it be communicated? Who are the actuary's audiences?
The panelists will discuss practical issues faced by actuaries both in setting up and managing loss reserving departments. They will also provide insight based on their own experiences as to what information is needed by the various levels of management within companies. Lastly, they will discuss how the loss reserving actuary can communicate their findings in a way that helps management make appropriate business decisions.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Ronald Greco, Patrick Tures
Keywords:
Loss Reserving
Loss Reserve Discounting from Canadian and U.S. Perspectives
The issue of loss reserve discounting has been around for some time, but has received increased attention with recent activity in incorporating discounted loss reserves into financial reporting. This panel will discuss actuarial efforts on both sides of the border on issues related to discounting loss reserves. A representative from the American Academy of Actuaries will present the work currently being done updating the Actuarial Standards of Practice on the discounting of loss reserves. A member of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries Committee on Property and Casualty Insurance Financial Reporting will discuss the Canadian experience, where insurance property and casualty insurance companies were required to file statutory statements with discounted reserves starting with year-end 2003.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Chandrakant Patel, Claudette Cantin
Keywords:
Loss Reserve
SOP 97-3 and Other Balance Sheet Reserves: The Devil's in the Details
Opining actuaries often barely have enough time to review loss and loss adjustment expense reserves thoroughly at year-end. The same generally holds true for actuaries working with self-insurers. However, there are many other reserve "details" that can and should require the attention of the actuary and may have a material impact on financial statements. These include:
SOP 97-3 Assessment Reserves
Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves for Self-Insurers
Dividend Reserves
EBNR and Retro Premium Reserves
Premium Deficiency Reserves Contingent Commission Reserves
While these reserves may be applicable to insurance companies, self-insurers, reinsurers, and third-party administrators, the actuarial issues involved can be significant and considerably different. Therefore, actuaries should be thinking about them now rather than waiting until the last minute in February. This session will focus on providing a background on these often neglected reserve components as well as offering practical approaches for estimating the liabilities.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Claus Metzner, William Stanfield
Keywords:
Balance Sheet Reserves
Implications of New International Accounting Standards for Insurance
The International Accounting Standards Board has recently published IFRS 4, the new International Financial Reporting Standard for Insurance Contracts, which becomes effective for 2005 financial statements. IFRS 4 is the result of Phase I of the IASB's project on revising GAAP accounting for insurance. The panel will review the provisions of IFRS 4 and the implications for property/casualty insurers who will have to comply with the new accounting requirements. Also, the panel will update attendees on the IASB's phase II work on fair value and discuss the International Actuarial Association's work to establish International Actuarial Standards to assist actuaries worldwide who will have to deal with IFRS 4 and other accounting changes.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Floyd Yager
Panelists:
Shigeru Taguchi
Keywords:
International Accounting Standards for Insurance
The Impact on Actuaries of Sarbanes-Oxley Section 404
The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 has changed the financial reporting landscape. One specific section, 404, requires company management and auditors to certify that internal controls related to financial reporting are adequate. Since loss reserves are critical to financial reporting for property-casualty insurance enterprises, the impact of the act on actuaries could be far reaching. Some actuaries see great opportunity for improvement in the reliability of financial reporting stemming from the requirements of the act. Others see great risk to actuarial professionals personally.
This panel will focus on the impact of section 404 on actuaries. The practical short-term aspects of documenting internal controls in a manner appropriate for testing and certification will be discussed. The panel will also discuss the more far-reaching risks and implications for actuaries, including prospective case studies of how the act may apply if reserve charges similar to those taking place in the recent past occur after section 404 becomes effective.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Floyd Yager
Panelists:
Scott Anderson, Steven Visner
Keywords:
Sarbanes-Oxley, Section 404, SEC Filings, Internal Controls, Audits
Introduction to Reinsurance Reserving
While reinsurance reserving principles are generally similar to primary reserving, applying them is often more difficult and involves special considerations. This session gives a basic understanding of loss reserving principles, considerations, and techniques as applied to assumed reinsurance.
The panelists will cover reinsurance contract types, data grouping for loss development, specific reserving techniques, and complications in their application.
This session is not intended for experienced reinsurance actuaries but assumes a working knowledge of primary reserving techniques. No advance preparation is required.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Christopher Bozman, Bruce Fell
Keywords:
Reinsurance Reserving
Loss Reserving: Is it Broken? What Can Be Done Better?
In light of recent public criticism of the actuarial profession, it is prudent to examine recent loss reserving practice. Several different entities are currently reviewing loss reserve methods and results and their presentation by actuaries. This session will present the results of analyses that are currently underway, performed by subcommittees of the American Academy of Actuaries, the CAS Committee on Reserves, and ISO. The panelists will discuss the results of their studies, including determining what extent reserve developments caused or contributed to financial failures and examining what role actuarial practice may have played. Panelists will also explore what lessons these reviews have given our profession and how we can educate industry observers.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Patrick Woods
Panelists:
Thomas Ryan, Charles Emma
Keywords:
Loss Reserving
Research Working Party Kickoff
Be prepared for an informative and interactive session introducing two new research working parties focused on reserving issues. What's a working party? Working parties bring together a group of interested volunteers to focus on a specific research project over the coming year, with guidance and oversight from members of research committees.
During this session, we will first introduce the working party concept and field your questions and comments about the process. Then, we will unveil the details of the two new working parties developed by the Committee on Reserves: Tail Factors Working Party and Bornhuetter-Ferguson—Initial Expected Losses Working Party. We will ask for your input on the direction that these working parties should take and even draft new members! The goal is to have these working parties present their work at the 2005 CLRS. Your participation is essential, so come join us.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Patrick Woods
Panelists:
Anthony Phillips, Steven Herman, Jeffrey Carlson, Christopher Olson
Keywords:
Research
Quantifying Variability in Loss Reserves: An Update
This session will summarize the work to date of the CAS Research Working Party on Quantifying Variability in Reserves Estimates. The goal of the working party is to prepare a survey paper discussing methods currently used to quantify variability in loss reserves, with unified notation and terminology. The panel of working party members will first describe how the working party process evolved, along with lessons learned. A discussion of the specific topics contained in the paper will be the main focus of the session.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Patrick Woods
Panelists:
Joseph Marker, David Clark, Mark Shapland, David Ruhm
Keywords:
Quantifying Variability in Loss Reserves
Estimating Loss Reserves and Confidence Intervals Using Predictive Modeling
Actuaries have enjoyed considerable success applying the data mining and generalized linear modeling (GLM) paradigms to the traditional problems of risk selection and pricing. While the use of GLMs for loss reserving has received considerable attention in recent years, much of this attention has been focused on the application of GLMs to traditional actuarial triangles of summarized claim information. Stochastic loss reserving at a lower level of detail, together with additional risk characteristics, has received somewhat less attention.
This paper explores the use of lower level of information, together with additional risk characteristics, to estimate outstanding losses together with confidence intervals around those losses. The motivation is to reflect dynamic environmental factors into one's reserve estimate. Lower level stochastic reserving carries the added benefit of enabling one to estimate confidence intervals and ranges for loss reserves using modern re-sampling techniques.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Patrick Woods
Panelists:
Jan Lommele, James Guszcza
Keywords:
Estimating Loss Reserves, Predictive Modeling
Munich Chain Ladder-Closing the Gap Between Paid and Incurred IBNR Estimates
The IBNR reserve for a portfolio is usually calculated on the basis of both the run-off triangle of paid losses and the run-off triangle of incurred losses, i.e., the sum of paid losses and case reserves. Often the problem arises that the projection based on paid losses is far different than the projection based on incurred losses.
In this presentation, panelists will analyze this problem with regard to the Chain Ladder method and describe a solution: the Munich Chain Ladder (MCL) method. More precisely, the panel will show that between paid losses and incurred losses there are almost always correlations that are ignored in the usual procedure making a separate Chain Ladder projection for each of the paid-loss and incurred-loss triangles. The Munich Chain Ladder method, on the other hand, takes advantage of these correlations, transferring any conjunction of paid and incurred losses that occurred in the past into the projection for the future. It is based on a distribution-free stochastic model, the MCL model, which generalizes the Chain Ladder model introduced by Thomas Mack.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Thomas Mack, Gerhard Quarg
Keywords:
loss reserve, chain ladder, IBNR, residual, paid-to-incurred ratio
Fair Value Accounting
What are the repercussions of fair value accounting on the actuarial profession and insurance companies? This session will include a brief history of fair value accounting standards and the rationale behind implementing them. Representatives from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and Towers Perrin will present their findings on this subject and share their thoughts on whether this concept makes sense for the insurance industry.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Oakden
Panelists:
E. Thomas, Tina Gwilliam
Keywords:
Fair Value Accounting
Reserving Implications of Tort Reform
The "crises" in medical malpractice and workers compensation have precipitated a doubling and tripling of rates respectively for certain physicians and industry classes. Several major insurance writers have also either become insolvent or have withdrawn from the market or both. Legislative response to these problems has largely been tort reform. The actuary's task is then to evaluate the savings produced by the tort reform. However, tort reform, legislative changes, and changes in case law affect not only the ultimate cost of losses but also the development pattern of these losses. Resourceful reserving actuaries assigned the tasks of estimating an individual company's ultimate losses in a post-tort reform environment-with little data and no historical loss development patterns to guide them-may find direction in the use of alternative databases or another appropriate methodology.
Passage of recent medical malpractice tort reforms in a number of states included major changes to multiple sections of the current law (e.g., Florida's CS/Senate Bill 2-D included 87 sections). The actuarial evaluation of the savings due to the tort reform bills included reliance on multiple sources of data, task force reports, company rate filing information, and the adoption of reasonable assumptions regarding future interpretation of the reform by the courts. Applying the methodology used in evaluating the pricing of the tort reform, the panel will address methods for reserving post-tort reform and incorporating actual loss experience into constant refinements of the reserving process.
Workers compensation reform elements have varying impacts on different types of open claims. Structural changes in areas such as medical treatment, dispute resolution, benefit amount, and duration schedules will all affect final outcomes and the way they emerge.
The discussion of workers compensation statutory reform will focus on the nature of these issues—how they affect different types of claims and how they can be addressed in a reserving context. Approaches that can be used to adjust costs and patterns so that reserves properly reflect post-reform consequences will be the central theme.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Karen Pachyn
Panelists:
Kevin Bingham, David Mohrman, John Booth
Keywords:
workers compensation, benefit, reforms, reserving
Practical Applications of Reserve Ranges
With increasing frequency, actuaries are asked to provide a range around their point estimate of an entity's claim liabilities. Approaches for setting a range vary from highly technical to highly judgmental. Meaningfully defining a range, practically measuring it, and effectively communicating it to nontechnical audiences all pose challenges for the loss reserve practitioner. In addition, continuing questions regarding the adequacy of industry reserves have led to increased scrutiny of the profession, raising questions regarding our ability to "get the reserves right." This session will explore some of the practical issues associated with setting a range, compare various stochastic approaches to measurement via hindcast testing, present some empirical evidence, and discuss the communication of a range to nontechnical audiences.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Karen Pachyn
Panelists:
Lee Steeneck, Jeffrey Carlson
Keywords:
practical issues associated with setting a range, various stochastic approaches to measurement via hindcast testing, Practical Applications of Reserve Ranges
Regression Models and Loss Reserving
Casualty actuaries have begun to turn from deterministic methods to stochastic models. Deterministic reserving methods, such as chain-ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and Cape-Cod, have been, to varying degrees, either blended with or replaced with stochastic models, especially with regression models. This session will show how stochastic reserving relates to and moves beyond deterministic reserving, the progress made to date in applying regression models to loss reserving, and what progress remains to be made. Simple examples will illustrate the theory and will suggest how to apply it to loss reserving. Recommended preparation is to read panelist Halliwell's response to discussions of his paper, "Loss Prediction by Generalized Least Squares" (Proceedings LXXXVI), and the paper's references.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Karen Pachyn
Panelists:
Leigh Halliwell
Keywords:
deterministic methods to stochastic models, reserving methods, such as chain-ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and Cape-Cod, stochastic reserving, regression models to loss reserving
Intermediate Track III-Case Study
Developed as a workshop, this session covers the concepts discussed in the preceding intermediate sessions. Audience participation is encouraged in analyzing and discussing the cases, and proposing techniques to be applied in estimating the loss reserves. Various techniques will be discussed. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available on the CAS Web Site following the seminar.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Keywords:
analyzing and discussing the cases, proposing techniques to be applied in estimating the loss reserves, case study
Intermediate Track II-Investigating and Detecting Change
This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies to account for each situation will also be discussed.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Keywords:
Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies
Intermediate Track I-Considerations in Evaluating Changing Conditions
In an ideal situation loss reserving would begin with a long, stable history of consistent claim experience with no significant environmental or operational changes affecting the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage. However, that situation is often far from the reality. Changing conditions contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates that are mechanically produced. The Intermediate Track begins with a series of considerations that can help bring understanding volatility of initial estimates. These considerations lead us to diagnostic tools for clues. More complete understanding requires communication with other operating units.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Keywords:
loss reserving, environmental or operational changes affecting the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage, contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates
Basic Track III-You Set the Reserve!
Participants will receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available on-line following the seminar.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Keywords:
reserve estimates using the basic methods, Reserve
Basic Track II-Comparison of Techniques
Building on Basic Track I, this session presents basic questions surrounding a reserve estimate: "Is it reasonable?" and "How sensitive is the estimate to alternate assumptions?" Participants will then walk through basic Expected Loss Ratio Methods, with a comparison to the Loss Development Method. Advantages and disadvantages of methods will be presented. The session will conclude describing Annual Statement Schedule P with terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Keywords:
Expected Loss Ratio Methods, Loss Development Method, Annual Statement Schedule P
