Complete Session Descriptions
November 12
8:00 AM – 4:30 PM (GMT-10 HAWAII)
8:00 – 9:15 am
Innovations Contribution to Financial Strength
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change."
Charles Darwin
Innovation is how we adapt to change and with the increased pace of change in our world, A.M. Best is proposing a new rating criteria on innovation.
The first speaker will comment on innovations that he observed in the industry and innovation trends.
The second speaker will provide a high-level overview of how A.M. Best rates companies and where this innovation criteria would fit in. He will also mention the proposed timeline for this criteria release.
Both will share positive and negative comments received about this proposal. Aon, as provider of rating agency services for clients, and A.M. Best, from their request for comments.
They will conclude by predicting how the industry may look like in a few years, transformed by innovation.
- Moderator:
Benoit Carrier, Managing Director, Aon
Speakers:
James Gillard, Senior Managing Director, AM Best
Greg Heerde, Head of Americas Analytics, Aon
9:35 – 10:25 a.m.
Visual Thinking – Data Visualization for Actuaries and Data Scientists
The goal of this session is to provide actionable insights into the rapidly-evolving data visualization realm and empower actuaries and data scientists with data visualization tools to achieve high-impact results in story-telling and decision-making. We will provide basic principles of data visualization and use them to recommend a data visualization framework which includes step-by-step guidelines to creating successful visualizations tailored to suit the practicalities of day-to-day actuarial work. A focus will be placed on describing the thinking and design track from the perspective of actuarial science and data science.
A one-page summary of the visualization framework will be provided, including a list of actionable data visualization principles and further readings.
During this interactive session, we will engage audiences to brainstorm on their key challenges around data visualization, include hands-on exercises through polling to reinforce learning, and offer time for the audience to discuss and reflect on their key takeaways.
- Moderator/Speaker:
Nan Zhang, The Hanover Insurance Group
Speakers:
Marcela Granados, Actuarial Analytics Leader, EY
Corey Alfieri, Associate Actuary, The Hanover Insurance Group
Neil Greiner, Hanover Insurance Group
10:55 a.m. – 11:45 a.m
GLM vs. Machine Learning - A Case Study in Pricing
GLM based predictive modeling becomes a standard practice in auto pricing. At the same time, machine learning is getting more and more popular. Though it is hard to explain the rationale of results, many modelers believe machine learning is a way more powerful tool than GLM in term of predictive power.
A comparison on GLM approach vs. machine learning approach can be interesting and useful in many P&C pricing and underwriting predictive modeling projects. In this session, we will discuss pros and cons of the two modeling approaches. We will specifically describe major challenges of using each of the two approaches. A case study with a data set of three years auto customers from a mid-sized company will be used to show the concepts, results and conclusions.
- Speakers:
Debbie (Qianxin) Deng, Head of Actuarial Research, Taiping General Insurance
Jun(John) Zhou, Chief Actuary, Sinosafe General Insurance Co. Ltd.
12:05 p.m. – 12:55 p.m.
The Big Short, Part II
We are living through one of the longest economic expansions in US history, evidenced by the performance of the US market over the past decade and the low unemployment numbers; yet, it feels like we never even recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, evidenced by sluggish GDP growth, continued and increased deficit spending, and the Fed's inability to normalize interest rates and their balance sheet after the 2008 crisis. We are now heading into unprecedented times where the economic cycle may soon shift into recession without having ever really recovered from the last recession. The Fed discussed this very predicament in their 6/4/2019 Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices and laid out their plan for the future. What risks might this economic situation present to the P&C insurance industry and are we contemplating these risks in our internal risk capital models and risk committee discussions? Like 2008, are there risks we are failing to recognize and contemplate in our risk capital models now? Are we ready for another major financial event? This session will shed more light into the events that got us to our current economic situation and how these potential risks like monetary system change, civil unrest, and high inflation will impact areas of actuarial interest, like ORSA, RBC, risk capital modeling, investment income, trend, claims patterns, rate filings, and regulatory changes.
- Speaker:
Rob Anderson, Chief Actuary, United Auto Ins. Co.
2:40 pm – 3:30 pm
New Approaches to Modeling Silent Cyber Risk
Cyber is an emerging peril that can significantly impact profitability in traditional P&C lines of businesses. Cyber risk is constantly evolving and in rapid flux leaving the insurance industry in a world of uncertainty resulting from open-ended policy language or underpriced policies. In this session, Jon Laux from Aon and Ridhima Kale from Guidewire – Cyence will talk about how they are facing this challenge. The session will focus on case studies and disaster scenarios that can help quantify risk from this monumental challenge.
- Speakers:
Ridhima Kale, Product Manager, Cyence
Jonathan Laux, Head of Cyber Analytics, Aon
3:40 am – 4:30 pm
Driving Under The Influence — The Insurance of Distracted Driving
Insurance clearly has skin in the 'Distracted Driving' game: almost 10% of the over $100 billion annual losses from distracted driving are incurred through insurance. With such a large problem (that's only becoming larger), we need to figure out how we analyze the problem. This session will be aimed at defining the problem of distracted driving by:
- Defining what is considered distracted driving for insurance purposes
- Giving the legal landscape of distracted driving
- What role telematics plays – data, variables, models
- Pitfalls of analyzing distracted driving data
- Speakers:
David Kidd, Senior Research Scientist, Highway Loss Data Institute
Katie DeGraaf, Mobility Intelligence, Arity
Kudakwashe Chibanda, The Hartford
