Modeling Mortgage Insurance Claims Experience: A Case Study

Mortgage insurance indemnifies a mortgage lender against loss on default by the borrower. The sequence of events leading to a claim under this type of insurance is relatively complex, depending not only on the credit worthiness of the borrower but also on a number of external economic factors. Prominent among these external factors are the loan to valuation ratio of the insured loan, the disposable income of the borrower, and movements in property values. A broad theoretical model of the functional dependencies of claims of claim frequency and average claim size on these variables is established in Sections 6 and 7. Section 8 fits these models, extended by other "internal" variables such as the geographic location of the mortgaged property, to a real data set. Section 9 compares the fitted model with the data, and finds an acceptable fit despite extreme fluctuations in the claims experience recorded in the data set. Other keywords: mortgage insurance, housing price index, loan to valuation ratio, regression.