Casualty Catastrophe Analytics: Where We Are Now and Where We Should Be on This Critical Risk

Abstract

Despite the occurrence of numerous casualty catastrophes that have had a significant impact on the insurance industry, the state of casualty catastrophe modeling lags far behind that of property catastrophes. One reason for this lag is that casualty catastrophes develop slowly, as opposed to property catastrophes that occur suddenly, so that the impact, both financial and psychological, has less of a shock element. Other reasons include the dearth of data and the relative complexity. This paper reviews the history, assesses the current state of models, and suggests steps to improve the industry’s analytics of casualty catastrophes.

Volume
10
Issue
2
Page
292-311
Year
2016
Keywords
Casualty catastrophes, catastrophe models, risk-based capital, realistic disaster scenarios, gamma distribution
Categories
Actuarial Applications and Methodologies
Reserving
Equalization/Catastrophe Reserves
Actuarial Applications and Methodologies
Regulation and Law
Risk-Based Capital
Financial and Statistical Methods
Loss Distributions
Publications
Variance
Authors
Stephen P D'Arcy