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Reserving for Construction Defects

Construction defects: property and casualty insurers and actuaries cringe at the very mention of those two words. Insurers are troubled by the high frequency of construction defect claims while actuaries have encountered countless struggles with finding an appropriate and reasonable method for projecting the emergence of construction defect losses. In this session Ted Wagner, FCAS, Principal Consultant, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, will give an overview of the issues surrounding an actuarial analysis of construction defects and will present a few of the tailored methodologies that have been employed in recent years.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Ted Wagner
Keywords: property and casualty insurers, Reserving for Construction Defects

Introduction to Enterprise Wide Risk Management

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) goes beyond traditional financial risk analysis and attempts to identify and quantify all of the material risks facing an entity. The CAS has impaneled an advisory committee to identify and respond to the research and education needs of the CAS membership concerning ERM. In this session, Marc-Andre LeFebvre, FCAS of Royal and Sun Alliance will describe the ERM process as well as discuss the deliberations of the advisory committee.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Marc-Andre LeFebvre
Keywords: Enterprise Wide Risk Management, ERM

Welcome and Industry Perspective

Mr. Ken Selzer, CPCU, ARE, Senior Vice President - Aon Re, will offer welcoming remarks and comments on changes to the insurance business since the events of 2001.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Ken Selzer

Regulatory Proposals for Managing Natural Catastrophe Exposure

The NAIC has been working since the mid-1990's on the concept of pre-event tax-deferred catastrophe reserves for natural disasters, with a proposal adopted in October 2001. One speaker will present a summary of her co-authored call paper "Reserving for Catastrophes", including accounting treatment and instructions on annual calculations for this catastrophe reserve. Another speaker has independently developed an alternative way of accumulating surplus funds for catastrophe payments, similar to a 401 (k) tax-deferred fund, and will present his proposal for discussion.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Michael Walters, Kay Cleary
Keywords: catastrophe reserves, accumulating surplus funds for catastrophe payments

Basic I: Experience and Exposure Rating

The panelists will discuss the basic techniques of both experience and exposure rating of excess-of-loss reinsurance contracts. The emphasis for this session will be the calculation of expected losses. This session is intended for nonactuaries and actuarial students who are not familiar with reinsurance pricing methodologies.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jeffrey Dollinger
Panelists: Christian Svendsgaard, Robert Yenke
Keywords: exposure rating of excess-of-loss, reinsurance, expected losses, pricing methodologies

Workers Compensation Catastrophe Modeling

Prior to September 11, 2001, workers compensation catastrophe reinsurance was written and priced without a true appreciation for its exposure. Insurance companies, reinsurers, and even rating agencies are now in an aggressive pursuit of more appropriate modeling techniques to assess and manage their exposure to loss. In this session, panelists will present an update of available modeling techniques and discuss how both reinsurer and primary company professionals are using them for pricing and exposure management.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: general
Moderators: Jeffrey Dollinger
Panelists: Bill Tuttle, Seth Ruff, Jay Guin
Keywords: workers compensation, catastrophe reinsurance, modeling techniques, reinsurer and primary company professionals

Property and Casualty Insurance: A Bad Business Structured for Low Profits?

The property and casualty industry has recently suffered huge losses arising from a long, soft market, the attack on the World Trade Center, and the collapse of Enron. Much of this poor experience in recent years can be attributed to the following structural weaknesses: Not knowing the true cost of the products sold, which gives companies ample opportunity to justify low prices in order to meet revenue targets. Exposure to events that were not contemplated in the underwriting and rating processes, such as terrorism. An inability to apply credibility correctly to individual risk experience causes many policyholders to get too much credit for good experience (luck). Speakers will address how the above items and other issues helped to cause the industry's poor results and what changes need to be made to restore the long-term profitability of the industry. Speakers will include industry executives and members of the investment community.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: general
Moderators: Russ Bingham
Panelists: Todd Bault, Jeffrey Cohen
Keywords: property and casualty industry, soft market, credibility, individual risk experience

New Developments in Modeling of Catastrophic Events

After September 11, companies are paying more attention to exposure concentrations from more than just property risks. A number of catastrophe models are being built for workers compensation losses and terrorism events. Representatives from two modeling firms will discuss the mechanics of these new models, citing the development of terrorism event databases and vulnerability functions. There will also be a discussion on how predictable or reliable the modeling of events such as terrorism can be. A modeling cynic will present an alternative view that terrorism models are pure conjecture.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Moderators: John Flatley
Panelists: Jack Seaquist, Gordon Woo
Keywords: catastrophe models, compensation losses and terrorism, how predictable or reliable the modeling of events such as terrorism can be

Directors & Officers

An underwriter, a claims professional, and an actuary will discuss the issues and trends affecting D&O results and how these issues and trends are showing up (or not showing up) in the data that actuaries commonly use in their pricing and reserving analysis. The panel will also discuss emerging issues and their likely impact on D&O results in the next several years.
Source: 2002 CARe LAS - Directors & Officers and Errors & Omissions Professional Liability
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Ernest Tistan
Panelists: Michael McManus, Douglas Colosky, Paul Brodeur
Keywords: D&O, pricing and reserving analysis

Capital Adequacy of the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry-
Post September 11

Mainstream researchers generally viewed the property/casualty industry as overcapitalized before September 11. In the same breath, however, mainstream research estimated, among other things, deficient loss reserves and ultimate asbestos claims reaching up to $65 billion, begging the question of how overcapitalized, if at all, the industry truly was before September 11. If truly overcapitalized, why didn't capital leave the industry? In light of the events of September 11 and other catastrophic events of 2001, the evidence of loss reserve shortfalls, continued estimates of environmental and asbestos claims, the increased exposure due to the subsequent fallout from the Enron crises, and the recent insolvencies, is the property/casualty industry still deemed overcapitalized? Can the industry reasonably sustain another 2001? These and many more questions will be discussed in this session and will incorporate the view of a former senior executive in a major insurance carrier, an industry analyst, and a casualty broker.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Robert Wolf
Panelists: James MacGinnitie
Keywords: catastrophic events, loss reserve shortfalls, continued estimates of environmental and asbestos claims, increased exposure due to the subsequent fallout

Are You Ready?

This paper presents a possible vision for the treatment of property/casualty and other related risks in a converging financial-services marketplace. While each market-generated development is not equally probable, substantial change is likely. To succeed in the coming decades, actuaries - like their employers - will have to meet changing marketplace needs. The CAS brings value to its members and their clients by providing education and research that help members meet those changing needs. The purpose of this paper is to encourage CAS members to develop their own visions of the future marketplace and to stimulate change in CAS research and education to meet the needs of the new, and still evolving, financial services marketplace.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: Paper
Panelists: John Kollar
Keywords: property/casualty, financial-services marketplace

Discussion Papers- The Changing Insurance Market- The LIHTC Program and Considerations for Guarantors of Affordable Housing Fu

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program (LIHTC) was created by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and was first utilized by the real estate development community during 1987. Each year the IRS allocates tax credits to each state based on population as defined in IRC Section 42. Under the LIHTC Program, developers of rental housing must meet certain affordability tests and the property must remain in compliance with the low income tenant set aside and rent restriction requirements for a period of not less than 15 years from the first taxable year of the credit period. Participation by guarantors and insurers in the affordable housing investment yield guarantee business requires the willingness and ability to assess and underwrite the risks associated with a financial guarantee of a structured, tax-motivated real estate investment. These unique skills, plus the niche nature of the opportunity have limited entrants and the resulting rate competition between guarantors. The authors predict that a strong insurance/reinsurance market will emerge as the primary guarantors seek to transfer risk to accommodate concerns about the remote but large liability assumed by the guarantor over the 17-year investment life. The market will initially be led by the formation of strategic partnerships between top-tier guarantors (or sponsors) and insurance/reinsurance companies. In the end, the authors believe the individuals who create the strongest multi-year partnerships will ultimately dominate the affordable housing investment yield guarantee business in terms of market share (percentage of annual estimated $135 million to $180 million industry guarantee fees), geographic diversification and profitability.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: Paper
Panelists: Kevin Bingham, William Guthlein
Keywords: Discussion Papers

Workers Compensation Catastrophe Modeling

The terrorist attacks on September 11 have created major changes in the availability and cost of catastrophe reinsurance for workers compensation insurance. Workers compensation coverage requires that primary insurers provide statutory or unlimited per occurrence limits. Whereas insurers have been able to obtain catastrophe support easily and affordably in the past, they are now faced with questions such as: How much reinsurance do we need to protect our surplus adequately? How can we convince the reinsurance market that our catastrophe exposure is limited or well managed? What is our per occurrence catastrophe exposure? How concentrated are we in any one location or zip code? What are the rating agencies' expectations of how much catastrophe reinsurance we need to protect our surplus adequately? Can we inform the rating agencies that we have adequate catastrophe reinsurance and why? Reinsurers and rating agencies are wrestling with these or similar issues from their perspectives. Self-insurance groups and self-insurers are also affected by the dramatic changes in the catastrophe excess reinsurance market. This session will cover these issues and discuss tools that can be developed or used to answer these questions. We will also discuss the new data elements that are typically being required on workers compensation insurance and reinsurance submissions so that databases can be created to measure, monitor, and manage catastrophe exposure.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Wade Overgaard
Panelists: Steven Math, Richard Palczynski, Seth Ruff
Keywords: workers compensation insurance, catastrophe

Using Expert Claims Systems and Reserving Issues

Automated loss reserving systems have been available for the past several years and are currently used by several insurers and third-party administrators. This session will provide an overview of several of these systems and discuss issues, including how to forecast loss reserves and IBNR in the midst of conversion when using one of these systems. Panelists will discuss the data issues that one should be aware of and the benefits of achieving accurate case reserves more quickly.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jonathan White
Panelists: Clayton Dukes, Steven Hancock
Keywords: Automated loss reserving, IBNR, loss reserves

Update on the Use of Credit Information Scoring in Property/Casualty Insurance

Using credit information and other parameters in underwriting and placing risks has gained an increased place of importance recently. Yet, this growing use has not abated the level and intensity surrounding the efficacy of using credit in underwriting and rating. As a result, the NAIC Property and Casualty Committee has undertaken a review of the use of credit information and scoring in underwriting, including how states review and regulate this process. The panel will summarize the issues in the debate and provide a status of progress to date.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Thomas Ghezzi
Panelists: D. Barclay, Birny Birnbaum
Keywords: credit information, parameters in underwriting and placing risks

Mitigation Programs and Classification Plans

This session will focus on how mitigation programs are being used to refine the classification and rating process for the hurricane and earthquake perils. The mitigation programs of the Florida Windstorm Underwriting Authority (FWUA) and the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) will be described, along with the new Florida building code refinements. The discussion will cover types of mitigation and retrofitting efforts (hurricane shutters, anchoring) and their associated discounts, and current research into the cost benefit of various mitigation programs. The discussion of changes in classification plans will include the history and current requirements for filing classification plans in Florida for residential insurance by 2003, and the CEA's efforts to change their method of rate distribution from contiguous geographical territories to banding by zip code.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Michael Walters, Milo Pearson
Keywords: mitigation programs, classification and rating process for the hurricane and earthquake perils, mitigation and retrofitting efforts, cover types of mitigation and retrofitting efforts

Umbrella Liability

The soft market in umbrella pricing of the past several years changed abruptly because of several recent high-profile large losses. Reinsurance support has dwindled, terms and conditions have tightened, and attachment points are increasing. Umbrella frequency has increased, particularly from commercial automobile liability. This session will explore the recent industry experience, focus on some difficult coverages, including construction defect and professional liability, and review the current state of the market.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Michelle Baurkot
Panelists: Russ Buckley, David Westberg
Keywords: soft market in umbrella pricing, Reinsurance, commercial automobile liability, recent industry experience

Risk & Return Part 1- Introduction to VaR and RAROC

Value-at-risk (VaR) and risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) applications measure financial strength and performance in the property/casualty insurance industry. Discussions on VaR will demonstrate how it works and how it is used to measure financial performance, allocate capital, and assess risk-adjusted returns. The panel will also talk about how VaR can be used to make restructuring and strategic decisions. As an adaptation of the banking approach to the property/casualty insurance industry, RAROC will be described in arriving at an effective and practical capital allocation tool for property/casualty insurance companies. In addition to VaR and RAROC, panelists will discuss how DFA can be used.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Sean Devlin
Panelists: Peter Nakada, Tim Freestone, Glenn Meyers
Keywords: Value-at-risk (VaR), risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC), financial performance, allocate capital, assess risk-adjusted returns, property/casualty insurance industry

Clash of Cultures- Latent Financial Exposures

The bankruptcies of both Enron and Hollywood Funding have thrust the once benign financial credit risk vehicle of surety bond into the limelight. In fact, Enron's demise has sent its financial backer, JP Morgan Chase & Co., to court in an attempt to collect from its surety bond insurers for $1.1 billion. Misunderstanding the differences between a letter of credit and an insurance policy, commercial banking and insurance industry business expectations, a monoline and a multiline insurer and the like, results in what is sometimes called the "clash of cultures." These misunderstandings have always existed, but are now coming under intense focus as the insurance and banking industries converge. The first decision of the Enron case in this matter, the Mohonia case, will be examined. The panel will discuss what defenses an insurance company has as a matter of law, and which of these defenses can be waived. In short, the panel will explain how to avoid the misunderstandings that arise in this clash of cultures and how to buy an insurance policy that does what you expect it to do.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Bob Aicher, Ken Wylie
Keywords: financial credit risk, defenses an insurance company has as a matter of law

Modeling Capital Adequacy- A.M. Best's Perspective

A.M. Best uses its proprietary Best's Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) model to help companies identify appropriate levels of risk-adjusted capital for their asset and liability structure. The BCAR model is also a key tool for the insurer rating process. The session will include: An overview of the model; A comparison of BCAR to NAIC risk-based capital formula; A discussion of expected policyholder deficit, the model's basis for risk measurement; and A review of the key risk components of the model. The session will also include an alternative view of capital strength that Best is developing using value-at-risk concepts. With continuing research and testing, Best seeks to gain a more comprehensive and dynamic view of insurance company capital adequacy.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Sean Devlin
Panelists: Matthew Mosher
Keywords: BCAR, Best's Capital Adequacy Ratio, risk-adjusted capital for their asset and liability structure

Improving and Protecting the Balance Sheet

With the changing conditions in the marketplace, companies are more willing to grow. However, they may have trouble with their financial statements, rating agencies, and regulators if they grow too quickly, even if their premium growth is driven by rate increases. Furthermore, the company may be forced to recognize the sins of their past in the form of reserve inadequacies driven by poor underwriting results and latent exposures. This panel will look at financially oriented transactions. quota share, adverse loss development covers, and loss portfolio transfers. that will help a company put itself into a position to capitalize on the hardening market. Panelists will explore the benefits of each cover, how they are structured, and the account implications.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Michael Poe
Panelists: Michael Belfatti, Peter Doyle
Keywords: changing conditions in the marketplace, financial statements, rating agencies

Diversity in the Actuarial Profession

A session at the May 2001 CAS Spring Meeting presented the benefits of having a diverse actuarial staff. With this year's session, panelists will present some of their views, experiences, success stories, and challenges to help shed some light on how your hiring and personnel policies can better attract and retain a high-quality diverse actuarial staff.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Wayne Fisher
Panelists: Edwin Felice, Robert Mucci, K.C. Cho, Stafford Thompson
Keywords: experiences, success stories, and challenges to help shed some light on how your hiring and personnel policies can better attract

Asset/Liability Management

Recent worldwide events have served to emphasize the uncertainty and volatility associated with many economic and financial variables. For example, interest rates have changed significantly over the past couple of years, affecting the market values of assets and liabilities as well as the general investment environment. Because of capacity issues and financial solidity concerns, insurers need to be very sensitive to potential changes in surplus resulting from interest rate movements. This session will discuss the importance of interest rate risk to the insurance industry and describe some asset-liability management techniques available to insurers to deal with this risk. The CAS Committee on Valuation, Finance, and Investments will also present its research project involving the modeling of the impact of interest rate risk on property/casualty insurers.
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Frederick Kilbourne
Panelists: Kenneth Quintilian, Raghu Ramachandran
Keywords: assets and liabilities, general investment environment, capacity issues and financial solidity concerns, insurers need to be very sensitive to potential changes in surplus resulting from interest rate movements

Market Cycle Update

With the poor industry results of the past few accident years, realization of poor reserving for prior years, and the terrorist attacks of September 11, the market has been hardening. Panelists will explore where the market has been over the past few years and where it is heading by answering the following questions: How long will the hardening continue? Will it be as severe as the hard market of the mid-1980's? Which lines will shift the most? How much of the past losses will be recouped? How has capacity been reduced? What new capacity is coming into the market? Will start-up companies prosper? How much more does a company's rating mean in today's environment?
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: general
Moderators: Frederick Kilbourne
Panelists: Gregory Ciezadlo, Jeffrey Post, Kenneth Kurtzman
Keywords: terrorist, where the market has been over the past few years, capacity

Can We Talk?

Back by popular demand, the actuarial troupe that brought you the eye-opening "Can We Talk" skit at the March 1998 Ratemaking Seminar is returning to the stage. This time around, they take us on a satirical journey through a day-in-the-life of a "communications-challenged" actuary. Three tongue-in-cheek documentaries shed some light on how actuaries are perceived by coworkers, company executives, and fellow actuaries. These outspoken and irreverent actuaries do not fall short in their candid honesty or their humor. There is something here for every actuary to reflect on, to learn from, and to beg the question, "Do I sound that goofy?"
Source: 2002 Spring Meeting
Type: general
Panelists: Richard Kirste, Rose Barrett, Martin King, Mark Priven
Keywords: satirical journey through a day-in-the-life of a "communications-challenged" actuary