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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Claims Applications of GLM
Many of the results produced by GLM analyses have applications that can be of direct and powerful value to claims departments. Specifically, GLMs provide great insights into claim frequency and severity differences that exist between claim offices and adjusters, claim characteristics (medical only versus lost time workers compensation claims), rating variables (e.g., physical damage severities by vehicle symbol). This session will examine how GLM output can be used to provide valuable information that helps claims departments improve their approaches to such issues as statistical or formula case reserves, claims audits and training, and utilization review of third parties (e.g., attorney, auto glass, physician, or fraud investigation networks).
Source:
2004 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Christian Svendsgaard
Panelists:
Robert Walling
GLM and the Medical Malpractice Crisis
The current turbulent conditions in the medical malpractice market would appear to be fertile ground for GLM. Many of the questions of primary concern in the current debates seem to be well suited to multivariate modeling. For instance, what factors are driving claim severity trends? Are there differences in claim trends by physician specialty? Are there differences in claim trends by geographic location of physicians (e.g., rural versus urban)? Are some types of claims disparately affected by caps on noneconomic damages? Does the court venue within a state affect claim values? This session will demonstrate how GLM can be use to answer questions like these and present samples of empirical results.
Source:
2004 Fall SIS- Predictive Modeling
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Robert Walling, Bill Faltas
Keywords:
GLM, notice, regression, validation, waiting
Alternative Solutions
The purpose of this session is to discuss alternative solutions to cover the risk of terror beyond TRIA. Ideas which have been presented within the industry will be outlined along with the pros, cons, and issues associated with each alternative. This session is a forum for audience participation. Questions and open discussion are welcome.
Source:
2004 CARe Seminar on Terrorism
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Charles Wolstein, Paul Little
Keywords:
TRIA
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA)
With TRIA due to expire in December 2005, current discussions are focusing on extending coverage. This session will focus on the pricing aspects, terms and conditions, and some of the more practical issues associated with TRIA. These issues include how to incorporate TRIA's costs into rating plans, underwriting guidelines, claims reserving and systems. The panel will also discuss the current proposals for TRIA's extension, as well as, the costing, timing, and associated issues.
Source:
2004 CARe Seminar on Terrorism
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Joe Lebens, Christopher Yaure
Keywords:
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002
World Trade Center Update
Since the initial reserve estimates of the World Trade Center losses, there has been little activity regarding reserve levels. There has been much talk of possible reserve changes due to some favorable developments such as the Victim's Compensation Fund, lower than expected new claims emergence, settlement activities, and other circumstances. The panelist will discuss the initial assumptions, other issues, and a current view of the World Trade Center estimates.
Source:
2004 CARe Seminar on Terrorism
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Stephen Lowe
Keywords:
reserve levels, reserving
Terrorism Defined
A representative from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and a terrorist expert from the Department of Homeland Security will present information in order to provide the audience with an understanding of what working with terrorism on a daily basis involves. The session will include a brief history of terrorism, an outline of current types of terrorists groups including their motives and actions, a discussion of what is involved in forecasting the nature of terrorism long term into future decades, and, how those who protect us combat terrorism in order to prevent disasters from occurring.
Source:
2004 CARe Seminar on Terrorism
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Asha George
Keywords:
Terrorism
Reserving in a Changing Environment: Responding to the Impact of Layoffs, Plant Closures, and Downsizing in Reserving for Workers Compensation Liabilities
In some instances, the impacts of layoffs and plant closures on workers compensation costs have resulted in pure premiums doubling. In other instances there were no appreciable effects on workers compensation pure premiums. This paper discusses some of the issues surrounding estimating workers compensation losses during periods of layoffs and plant closures. The paper has also developed a simplistic method for incorporating the estimated impacts into traditional reserving methodologies.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Ronald Kozlowski, Atul Malhotra
Keywords:
Reserving, Workers Compensation Liabilities
Reconciliation and the Actuarial Opinion
ASOP 36 and the NAIC Property/Casualty Annual Statement Instructions requires opining actuaries to reconcile the data used in their analyses of the loss and loss adjustment reserves with Schedule P Part 1 in the Annual Statement. This paper reviews the importance of reconciliation, what data to include in reconciliation, a description of the reconciliation process, and discussions of applicable Standards of Practice. While the emphasis here is on Schedule P, it is no less true for GAAP or for ratemaking exercises.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Margaret Germani, Homes Gwynn
Keywords:
Reconciliation, Actuarial Opinion
Obtaining Predictive Distributions for Reserves That Incorporate Expert Opinion
This paper shows how expert opinion can be inserted into a stochastic framework for claims reserving. The reserving methods used are the chain ladder technique and Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and the stochastic framework follows England and Verrall (Proceedings LXXXVIII, 2001). Although stochastic models have been studied, there are two main obstacles to their more frequent use in practice: ease of implementation and adaptability to user needs. This paper attempts to address these obstacles by utilizing Bayesian methods and describing in some detail the implementation, using freely available software and programs supplied in the appendix.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Richard Verrall
Keywords:
Reserves
An Introduction to Reserving and Financial Reporting Issues for Nontraditional Reinsurance
Nontraditional reinsurance contracts-finite risk reinsurance contracts in particular-are structured differently from traditional reinsurance. The incorporation of special features that make each contract unique tends to preclude standard portfolio loss reserving. This paper introduces the basic features related to common types of finite risk reinsurance contracts that provide prospective (e.g., aggregate stop-loss) or retroactive (e.g., adverse development cover) coverage. This paper will also discuss some of the considerations related to financial reporting issues for nontraditional reinsurance. The appendix will provide basic examples of prospective and retroactive deals to illustrate the balance sheet and income statement impacts for both the buyer and seller of finite risk reinsurance.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Derek Jones
Keywords:
Reserving and Financial Reporting Issues, Nontraditional Reinsurance
International Accounting Standards Applied to Property and Casualty Insurance—Overview of Reserving Issues
This paper provides an overview of the newly developing International Accounting Standards (IAS or IFRS) for Insurance, with emphasis on issues affecting property and casualty insurers. Those standards will emerge in two phases, with the more challenging actuarial issues deferred to Phase II. This paper focuses on the Phase II actuarial issues but also provides a brief overview of Phase I issues. The paper is intended to serve two purposes: providing background information for those actuaries not yet familiar with IAS developments, and encouraging discussion and research on new challenges that casualty actuaries will face in determining reserves on the new bases required to implement these standards.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
James Christie, Scott Drab, Bruce Moore, Samit Shah
Keywords:
International Accounting Standards Applied to Property and Casualty Insurance, Reserving Issues
Estimating the Workers Compensation Tail
The workers compensation tail largely consists of the medical component of permanent disability claims (MPD). Yet the nature of MPD payments is not widely understood and is counter to that presumed in common actuarial models. This paper presents an analysis of medical payments based on 160,000 permanently disabled claimants-for accident years 1926-2002. It introduces a method for utilizing incremental payment data prior to the standard triangle to extend development factors beyond the end of the triangle. A close-fitting model is presented that explicitly reflects the opposing effects of 1) medical cost escalation on average incremental payments, and 2) the force of mortality in closing claims. It clearly demonstrates that:
Paid development factors will tend to increase over many successive, "mature" years of development.
Paid development factors and tails will trend upward over time-if past declines in mortality rates continue in the future.
The paper also demonstrates that case reserves based on realistically inflating payments until the expected year of death are significantly less than the expected value of such reserves. A method is introduced for realistically simulating the high expected value and variability of MPD reserves. It is based on a Markov chain model of annual payments on individual claims.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Richard Sherman, Gordon Diss
Keywords:
workers' compensation, tail, reserves, permanent disability claims, medical losses, mortality
Estimating and Incorporating Correlation in Reserve Variability
An actuarial analysis of a book of reserves usually focuses on ultimate loss estimates by exposure period (accident year, report year) and by business segment. If an actuary is interested in the distribution of total reserves for all segments and exposure periods combined, then the actuary must find a way to combine the distribution estimates from the various parts analyzed. This paper presents a method than can be used to estimate the correlation of reserve estimates among the various components analyzed, allowing the actuary to combine the resulting distributions in a meaningful way.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Keywords:
Estimating and Incorporating Correlation in Reserve Variability
Medical Malpractice
Medical malpractice continues to be front-page news; reports of affordability and availability concerns, company insolvencies, and loss reserve inadequacies are becoming almost routine. How should actuaries respond to the difficulties in reserving for this line of business? This panel will discuss the medical malpractice situation in several high-profile states and will offer suggestions on critical factors that should be considered when analyzing reserves for this line of business. They will also discuss such issues as why companies fail, warning signs, and preventive measures that can be taken.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Kevin Bingham, Richard Biondi
Keywords:
Medical Malpractice
Workers Compensation Issues and Challenges
Estimating workers compensation reserves has often been considered a fine art involving the examination of multiple variables. This panel will explore the implications of cost trends from several unique perspectives including insights into NCCI's assessment of the industry reserve adequacy, an economist's perspective of the impact of inflation on workers compensation results, and a closer look at the implications of California's recent changes.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Callahan
Panelists:
Harry Shuford, Barry Lipton
Keywords:
Workers Compensation
Asbestos
Companies continue to face many challenges in estimating asbestos reserves. This session will explore methods that can be used to estimate asbestos reserves, data and information that should be considered for analysis, and the issues that may be encountered from the perspectives of insurers, reinsurers, and defendant companies.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Patrick Burns
Panelists:
Claus Metzner, Harold Clarke
Keywords:
Schemes of Arrangement, Asbestos Treaty Reserving
Medical Malpractice
Construction defect claim emergence continues to be a cause of concern for many insurers who provided general liability coverage for general contractors and subcontractors over the last fifteen years. This session will explore recent trends and developments in the construction defect arena, including trends in claim filings, the impact of the additional insured endorsements, the effect of carrier insolvencies on severity, new potential problem states, and the incidence of filings where mold is part of the complaint. Different approaches to reserving construction defect claims and the various considerations in applying these methods will also be discussed. The panel will feature both an actuary as well as a company claims professional.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Ronald Kozlowski, Sherrianne Hanavan
Keywords:
Medical Malpractice
Recent Issues to Consider in Homeowners Loss and LAE Reserves
In the past homeowners insurance has been considered a stable predictable line that has not garnered much of the reserving actuary's attention. Is this about to change or can reserving actuaries continue to focus their attention on other lines of business and not worry about homeowners insurance?
This session will explore the potential impact of recent events in homeowners insurance that might make reserving actuaries think twice about their assumption that the line is a stable and predictable one. Topics to be discussed include mold, unanticipated coverage expansions, disappearance of small losses, catastrophe reserving, short-term severe weather pattern changes, the increasing impact of liability claims, extra contractual liability trends, and changes in claim department loss adjustment practices. Come prepared to have your preconceived assumptions of predictability and stability challenged.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kasing Chung
Panelists:
Elizabeth DePaolo, Mark Allaben
Keywords:
Homeowners Loss, LAE Reserves
The Challenges of Reserving: Small vs. Large Companies
Large companies often have an advantage over smaller companies when it comes to credibility and homogeneity of data. This session will address reserve uncertainty issues based on company size, using specific illustrations with private passenger auto experience and challenges that face reserve actuaries from smaller predominantly personal lines companies. Given the cyclical nature of many parts of the industry, the threat of insolvency and loss reserve volatility is always of high concern to regulators, insurance executives, and investors. The challenge that actuaries face is our need to measure this uncertainty, find the means to mitigate it, and effectively communicate the results of our work.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Ernie Tistan
Panelists:
C.K. Khury
Keywords:
Loss Reserving Issues for Small Insurance Companies, Ceded Reinsurance, Loss Reserve Ranges, Materiality
Auto Insurance: The Changing Scenery
Many consider personal auto to be a very straightforward line of insurance, requiring little expertise to manage, price, underwrite, and reserve. This panel will decidedly convince you otherwise.
Whether through outright fraud or overstatement of claim values, claims leakage has been estimated to cost auto insurers billions of dollars annually. The insurance industry has developed sophisticated techniques to fight fraud. These efforts are causing changes in the auto loss development pattern and in the ultimate severity of loses.
Increased litigation of bodily injury claims is driving higher trends in severity and ultimately adverse claims development and higher IBNR reserves. The loss development pattern for the industry lengthens, as litigated claims become a growing part of the landscape. The panel will address the drivers of increased litigation and company efforts to control loss costs and the accompanying litigation costs.
Bodily injury claims, PIP claims, and Med Pay claims involve medical treatment. The panel will share with you the results of a recent national study by the Insurance Research Council on closed auto injury claim costs. Contrary to expectations, medical costs for PIP and Med Pay exceeded medical cost inflation and are being driven by increased use of certain medical professionals and diagnostic procedures and higher per visit charges.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Todd Cheema
Panelists:
Elizabeth Sprinkel, Douglas Ashbridge, Linda Nelson
Keywords:
Auto Insurance
D&O and E&O-Is There Any Good News?
The D&O and E&O markets have been affected by a number of key events in the past few years. This session will provide a brief history of these events and then focus in particular on the mutual fund scandal and the impact of Sarbanes-Oxley on the marketplace.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Todd Cheema
Panelists:
John Lewandowski, Michael Morabito
Keywords:
D&O, E&O
California Workers Compensation: $8 Billion Reasons to Attend!
As of December 31, 2002 the Workers Compensation Insurance Rating Board estimated that the California workers compensation insurance industry as underreserved by $13 billion. An out-of-control delivery system, in which medical severity tripled in eight years, was the prime culprit.
In 2003, the state legislature passed AB 227 and SB 228 and followed with SB 899 in early 2004. These three reforms are expected to reduce workers compensation costs significantly, both prospectively and, because some of the medical reforms affect open claims, retrospectively.
This session will highlight the major provisions of the reforms, with special emphasis on how they may affect frequency, severity, trend factors, and development patterns. Actual 2004 experience will be presented to see whether evidence of the projected savings can be seen in emerging data.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Robert Giambo
Panelists:
Alex Swedlow
Keywords:
California Workers Compensation
Reserving for Title Insurance and Residual Value Coverage
Actuaries have developed reserving methodologies relating to financial products since the inception of the CAS. Title insurance, which protects owners' and lenders' investments in real estate by defending challenges to property ownership, is one niche product. In more recent years, residual value products protect financial institutions for decreases in owned or leased products' property value, often driven by economic changes. Fundamental descriptions of the product, current market conditions, and state-of-the-art methodologies used by two seasoned actuaries will be presented. In addition, this session will expose participants to broader concepts, such as econometric modeling, which can be applied to a wide variety of other insurance products and situations. Additionally, statutory requirements relating to title and residual value insurance products will also be discussed.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Alan Hines, Paul Struzzieri
Keywords:
Reserving for Title Insurance
Choosing Tail Factors
The tail factors used in loss reserving are a portion of the loss development factors used at every stage of development. Therefore, they affect the ultimate losses for all the years in any loss development triangulation process. As such, if they are of reasonable size they have a leveraged impact on the total ultimate losses and estimated loss reserve needs that is larger than one might expect. Presenters in this session will discuss the methods of computing (estimating to be precise) tail factors in common usage today. The session will begin with the simplest methods and move forward through the standard methods in use today in increasing complexity. Presenters will then discuss a new method that does not involve secondary assumptions. They will also suggest some easy ‘quick improvements’ to the standard tail factor calculations.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Sarah Krutov
Panelists:
Mary Miller, Joseph Boor
Keywords:
Tail Factors
Solvency Surveillance: What Is Working and What Is Not
This panel will review recent insurer insolvencies with an eye to lessons learned. In particular the panelists will discuss the effectiveness of current regulatory tools and techniques to identify such insurer insolvencies and to mitigate their effects.
Source:
2004 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Michael Wacek
Panelists:
Chester Szczepanski, Charles Cook, Kris DeFrain, Ronald Dahlquist
Keywords:
Regulation, Solvency, Financial examinations, Risk assessment, NAIC
