Multivariate Spatial Analysis of the Territory Rating Variable

Abstract

The average insurer typically utilizes some form of territory ratemaking in its algorithm; thus, in constructing a GLM, one of the major issues revolves around how to reflect location in the statistical solution. The problem arises because there are too many territory categories to directly include in the statistical model. This issue can be resolved by altering the perception of the location dimension from a categorical rating variable to a continuous one.

This paper presents an alternative approach to incorporating the location dimension in the GLM analysis of the rating algorithm. The procedure develops the indicated relativities and boundaries in a statistical multidimensional framework thus removing the distributional effects of other rating variables and measuring the geographic risk alone. Furthermore, the territory procedure is based on the principle of locality, i.e., the expected loss experience at location L is similar to the loss experience around L.

The indicated relativities of each geographic unit are determined by modeling polynomial functions of latitude and longitude in the GLM statistical framework. By expressing the indication in terms of a polynomial the analyst can include location in the statistical model without having to worry about too man), additional parameters.

Page
245-260
Year
2004
Categories
Financial and Statistical Methods
Statistical Models and Methods
Generalized Linear Modeling
Business Areas
Fire and Allied Lines
Business Areas
Homeowners
Financial and Statistical Methods
Loss Distributions
Publications
Casualty Actuarial Society Discussion Paper Program
Authors
Serhat Guven