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The Impact of Terrorism on the P&C Marketplace

The terrorist attacks of September 11 have affected all of us both personally and professionally. The property/casualty insurance marketplace has experienced a number of significant changes including changes in availability and affordability in many markets, higher reinsurance costs, and a move to increased federal involvement in insurance. This session will focus on some of the myriad of changes to the property/casualty insurance landscape as a result of the events of September 11 and how the industry is dealing with them. Emphasis will be placed on those issues impacting insurance coverages, rates, and regulation. Insurance company, regulatory, rating agency, and agency/brokerage perspectives will be represented. The opportunity for audience participation will also be provided.
Source: 2002 Ratemaking Seminar
Type: general
Moderators: Rick Brutto
Panelists: James Bonica, John Pedrick, Greg Doyle
Keywords: property/casualty insurance marketplace, markets, higher reinsurance costs, and a move to increased federal involvement in insurance, insurance coverages, rates, and regulation. Insurance company, regulatory, rating agency, and agency/brokerage

Retention Modeling

Policyholder retention and its impact on profitability have long been overlooked in actuarial literature. As insurance draws closer to other financial services industries, the emphasis those markets place on retention, lifetime customer value, and the economic value of the current client base are getting increased attention. Chuck Boucek, FCAS, Ernst & Young, will present possible measures of retention, a discussion of how different market segments may respond to rate changes, an approach to modeling prospective retention by market segment, and how this information can be used to optimize a proposed rate change.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Chuck Boucek
Keywords: Policyholder retention, profitability, different market segments, modeling prospective retention by market segment

Medical Malpractice State of the Market

Medical professional liability was at one time considered to be one of the most profitable lines of business within the property/casualty insurance marketplace. This perception fueled much of the increased capacity in the market that led to significant price competition. This competition coupled with the recent deterioration in the claim cost environment has led many insurers to post large operating losses and question their strategic plans. Chad Karls, FCAS, Milliman USA and Kevin Conley, FCAS, American Physicians Capital will discuss the sources for the deteriorating claim cost environment and what short- and long-term impact that may have on the companies operating in this market.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Chad Karls, Kevin Conley
Keywords: Medical professional liability, claim cost environment, short- and long-term impact

Generalized Linear Models

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been the standard for ratemaking in the highly competitive European personal lines markets for many years. The method accommodates correlations properly and is also easy to understand. As US insurers seek more effective ways to examine their portfolios and to benefit from market opportunities and increasing computer power, GLMs will be a valuable tool. In this session, Claudine Modlin, FCAS, Watson Wyatt Insurance & Financial Services, will present an overview of the ratemaking process using GLMs --including subjects such as data required, model forms to use, interpretation of results, territorial rating, and retention analysis.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Claudine Modlin
Keywords: Generalized linear models (GLMs), GLMs, ratemaking process

Credit Scoring - Regulatory / Legislative Update

Joseph J. Annotti, Assistant Vice President of Public Affairs/Grass Roots for the National Association of Independent Insurers (NAII) will discuss successful strategies for winning the legislative, regulatory and media relations battles over the use of credit-based insurance scores.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Joseph Annotti
Keywords: National Association of Independent Insurers (NAII), legislative, regulatory and media relations

Workers' Compensation State of the Market

Ron Retterath, FCAS, former chief actuary of the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) and now part-time consultant for NCCI, will update the membership on the current state of the Workers' Compensation market and expected trends.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: concurrent
Panelists: Ron Retterath
Keywords: National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), Workers' Compensation market and expected trends

CAS Issues Update

Gail Ross, CAS President-Elect, will discuss what she sees as the key issues that are facing our professional group currently, the opportunities the future holds for casualty actuaries, as well as other topics posed by the audience.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Gail Ross
Keywords: key issues facing CAS

Trends in Workers Compensation and Property Reinsurance

The reinsurance market has gone through a period of significant upheaval in late 2001 and early 2002. Although early predictions of widespread capacity shortages have not been realized, many lasting changes have taken place. Our speakers, who represent two prominent reinsurance brokerage firms, will discuss the hardening market in workers compensation and property reinsurance. Among the topics to be addressed are pricing trends, loss of carve out capacity (and merging alternatives), new capital, California, contract language/exclusions and terrorism.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Susan Fisch, Douglas May
Keywords: reinsurance market, capacity shortages, workers compensation and property reinsurance

They're Not Your Mother's Surety Bonds

Surety bonds have been in the news quite a bit lately. Enron's financing included surety bonds, which are now in dispute. The bankruptcy of Kmart also had surety bonds in the mix, and there was a highly publicized recent lawsuit from a customer, upset with new and higher collateral requirements from its surety. When you add to that a rapidly deteriorating loss ratio for surety, you have really interesting times in a market that is specialized, and not often well understood by outsiders. The speaker is a longtime participant in the surety market, and will give his views on what has happened, what is currently happening, and what the future holds for surety bonds.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Richard Meyerholz
Keywords: Surety bonds, collateral, financing

Casualty Actuarial Society and American Academy of Actuaries Presidential Forum

Almost all CAGNY members belong to the CAS and AAA, and we are delighted to have the Presidents of both organizations on this program. Each will each present the latest information on issues of importance to their respective organizations. We anticipate that there will also be time for questions at the end of the presentations, so start thinking - what about our profession would be clearer to you with a view from the top?
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Bob Conger, Mr. McCarthy
Keywords: Presidential Forum, CAS, AAA

How Optional Federal Charters For P&C Insurance Companies Will Affect Your Industry and Your Career

Proposed optional federal chartering of insurance companies will affect the p&c industry and our members in the most profound and sweeping way. Questions arising from optional federal charters include: 1. How will rates be regulated, if at all? 2. Will the actuarial statement on loss reserves continue to exist? 3. Will we have new required opinions such as cash flow opinions? 4. Will statutory accounting continue as a separate type of accounting for insurance companies? 5. Other issues This session will provide vital current information on issues surrounding Federal chartering: the pros and cons of Federal charters; who is for it and who is against it - and why; and the likely impact of Federal charters on the insurance industry and on the careers of casualty actuaries.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Charles Bryan
Keywords: federal chartering, p&c industry, actuarial statement, acturial opinions, statutory accounting

Rating Classifications and Personality Traits

Age, sex and marital status are familiar classifications for automobile insurance. Over the past few years the use of credit has emerged as a rating variable. A new study however shows that certain personality attributes are clearly linked to accident involvement. This panel will present the results of the study and the issues raised by these findings.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Donald Bashline
Keywords: classifications, automobile insurance, rating variable, credit, Rating Classifications and Personality Traits

Medical Malpractice - Now Curable?

The medical professional liability or medical malpractice (med mal) insurance marketplace has been characterized by severe swings, from market corrections with significant rate increases and capacity shortages to periods of intense competition. The current market is dominated by increasing deterioration in claim costs and is marked by the departure of market leader St. Paul. The question arises as to whether St. Paul's exodus from the market truly signals a bottom of the cycle. The speaker, an analyst from the investment firm of Cochran, Caronia Securities, will draw from his January, 2000 research report, "Medical Malpractice - Now Curable?" and subsequent publications and commentaries, and will provide an update of the current med mal marketplace and the challenges that exist.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Blair Sanford
Keywords: Medical Malpractice, medical professional liability, insurance marketplace, claim costs

Activities of the CAS Long Range Planning Committee

In this session, we will hear an update of the activities of the CAS Long Range Planning Committee. The LRPC is currently working on developing specific CAS long term goals for 2014, the year the CAS turns 100. These long term goals, and the interim milestones to support them, will serve to guide the CAS leadership as they address the challenges and opportunities our Society is facing.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - CAGNY
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Aaron Halpert
Keywords: LRPC, Long Range Planning Committee, long term goals

Securitization of Catastrophe Exposure: A Current and Prospective View

In a CAS 1997 Ratemaking Seminar session, someone boldly predicted that the market for the securitization of catastrophe risk would continue to evolve as participants gain experience through trial and error. At that time, there were more seminars, articles, and research papers on the securitization of catastrophe risks than actual completed deals. Also the soft catastrophe reinsurance market and the absence of recent mega-catastrophes at the time were cited as among the factors slowing market development. The world has changed in the five years since that prediction. Reinsurance markets have hardened and the world is considered more risky than ever before. This panel will discuss the current developments in the markets since then and discuss the outlook for the future.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jonathan Hayes
Panelists: Robert Eramo, Geoffrey Sweitzer, Garrett Shumway
Keywords: market for the securitization of catastrophe risk, securitization of catastrophe risks, mega-catastrophes

Survey Results - Meeting Powerpoint Presentation

Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - SCCAC
Type: affiliate
Keywords: survey results

Secondary Uncertainty/Parameter Risk in Pricing

Actuaries do well at building models that reflect the main drivers of the risks assumed under a reinsurance contract. In many of the newer products, secondary uncertainty/parameter risk contributes a significant amount of the risk, particularly in "tail" outcomes. This risk stems from the inability to measure accurately the primary driver of the risk. For example, many actuaries use either the Moody's or S&P default matrices to price a CDO tranche. However, this assumes that the class of assets fits those matrices, the ratings are current, and the pool of assets is "average." Violating any of these assumptions will create significantly more risk. The session will give an example of these risks and suggest ways to include their effect in evaluating the risk when pricing.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Steven White
Panelists: Steven Fallon, Gary Venter, Steven White
Keywords: reinsurance contract, uncertainty/parameter risk, evaluating the risk when pricing

Using Catastrophe Models for Pricing

Catastrophe models were initially designed to measure an insurer's risk of catastrophic loss. More and more, these models are being used in determining insurance rates. The output from catastrophe models is used in setting statewide rate levels and territorial rates and is being used to develop new pricing classifications. Methods that include a provision for catastrophe losses in manual rates are one focus of this session. Issues in the collection of data will also be explored. This session will also explore how a catastrophe model output may be used in the pricing and design of a reinsurance or retrocessional program, with the FHCF used as an example. Panelists will discuss methods and challenges regarding the use of catastrophe models in pricing reinsurance contracts. Issues to be discussed will include pricing model selection and parameterization.
Source: 2002 Fall SIS- Catastrophe Risk Management
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Jonathan Hayes
Panelists: David Lalonde, Paul Budde
Keywords: Catastrophe models, reinsurance or retrocessional program, pricing reinsurance contracts, pricing model selection and parameterization

Coffeehouses to Catastrophe-Lloyd's Past, Present, and Future

Coffeehouses became a huge success in London in the late seventeenth century because of their advantages over taverns as good business meeting places. They were soberer, cleaner, and more orderly. Edward Lloyd chose the site of his establishment with care. Near Tower Wharf and the Customs House, Lloyd's coffeehouse captured the thirst of shipowners and captains trading overseas, and, in conjunction, the merchants who dabbled in marine insurance. These underwriters would market the philosophy underlying their product with the phrase "the losse lightethe rather easilie upon many, than heavlilie upon fewe." Over the past decade, the truth of this philosophy has been tested amongst the society of individuals, who collectively call themselves Lloyd's. Large industry losses accompanied by an antiquated accounting system have led to catastrophic situations for several syndicates. With positive changes in the forefront, can Lloyd's reclaim its past glory and practice its philosophy with pride? In this session you will learn some of the history of Lloyd's. The panel will then discuss the present conditions in Lloyd's, and provide possible predictions for its uncertain future.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: John Tedeschi
Panelists: Todd Hess, Micheal Falcone
Keywords: underwriters

The Actuarial Role in the Client Relationship

With a panel including actuaries from both broker-market and direct-market reinsurers, as well as a reinsurance buyer, this session will discuss the role of the reinsurance actuary in developing and maintaining client relationships. The panelists will discuss how underwriters and actuaries can work together organizationally and how to optimize the success of an individual transaction through rate monitoring and participating in audits. Differences in the direct and broker markets and what a ceding company looks for from the reinsurance actuary will also be discussed.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: John Tedeschi
Panelists: Michael Coca, Pierre Laurin, Steven Kelner
Keywords: broker-market and direct-market reinsurers, reinsurance, reinsurance actuary in developing and maintaining client relationships

Medical Malpractice

This session will concentrate on the issues that affect projecting losses and future cost levels for medical professional liability. It will also offer methods the actuary can employ to address these issues in their analysis. Specifically, the session will address the following: Severity and frequency trend- What was the trend in the past, where is it now, and where is it going? What are the major forces likely to drive trend going forward? How much uncertainty is there in trend estimates? Loss development patterns-Are historical patterns relevant? How should historical data be adjusted to project losses and payout patterns? What projection methods should actuaries use? What data is publicly available for the actuary to use? What impact does tort reform, managed care, nursing storage, the concept of "managed law," and other emerging issues have on pricing this business for primary insurers, quota share reinsurers, and excess of loss reinsurers?
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Elizabeth Hansen
Panelists: Peter Schultheiss, Elizabeth Wellington
Keywords: Severity and frequency trend, Loss development patterns, data, business for primary insurers, quota share reinsurers, and excess of loss reinsurers

Property Catastrophe Modeling I: Earthquake

Catastrophe modeling results are used widely by insurers and reinsurers. Understanding the accuracy and limitation of models has become very important. This session will address earthquake modeling in the western U.S. as well as overseas. Representatives from catastrophe modeling firms will discuss their approach in terms of data used as well as underlying assumptions, parameters, and the latest model development. There will also be discussions on practical issues in the area of optimizing reinsurance and impact of workers compensation loss from an earthquake.
Source: 2002 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type: concurrent
Moderators: Elizabeth Hansen
Panelists: Jay Guin, Thomas Larsen, Guy Morrow
Keywords: Catastrophe modeling, Understanding the accuracy and limitation of models

Evaluating Reserves in a Changing Claims Environment

Aaron M. Halpert, Principal, KPMG LLP will discuss recent insurance industry emphasis on claims "best-practices", requiring the reserving actuary to identify and measure the emerging effects of claims department initiatives. Several of these initiatives will be reviewed from both an actuarial and claims personnel perspective. Adjustments to generally accepted actuarial methodologies as well as potential metrics to measure the impact of these initiatives will be presented.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Aaron Halpert
Keywords: Claims, Reserves

Insurance Capital Requirements

Barry Zurbuchen, FCAS, MAAA, Aon Re Services will discuss capital requirements of insurance companies. He will touch on the methods used by A.M. Best, Standard & Poor's and the NAIC for determining the capital adequacy of an insurer. He will then discuss more sophisticated approaches to capital management and capital allocation that are now possible via Dynamic Financial Analysis, including use of reinsurance as an alternative form of capital.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: Barry Zurbuchen
Keywords: Insurance Capital requirements

Mold

The looming "mold exposure" has piqued the interest of consumers, attorneys, and the industry at large. Each has their own concerns-personal and public health, individual insurance protection and financial welfare, adequate premiums for exposure, and the financial welfare of the insurance industry to provide coverage. David Golden, Director of Commercial Lines, National Association of Independent Insurers, will discuss the facts behind this exposure, the positions and the roles of the key players as well as recent developments.
Source: 2002 Regional Affiliate - MAF
Type: affiliate
Panelists: David Golden
Keywords: mold exposure, insurance protection and financial welfare