2025 Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar

Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks for effective Enterprise Risk Management. Insurance executives, regulators, risk managers and rating agencies are all beginning to raise the bar for the actuarial profession with respect to discussing and disclosing insurance risk calculations.

Attendance is limited to a maximum of 35 participants. Attendees will be selected on a first registered, first accepted basis. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop to the seminar. Please note that on the first day of the event, an optional statistical review will be held.

PURPOSE 

This seminar is designed to enhance the skills of the practicing actuary with regard to fitting and using and communicating results from loss reserve models. The emphasis in the seminar will be on the process of moving from deterministic methods for estimating a single point to stochastic models for estimating a distribution.  

The learning objectives include: 

1. Review of Statistical Concepts 

2. Understanding of Ranges vs. Distributions 

3. Knowledge of Statistical Modeling Techniques 

4. Hands on Use of Models, with Emphasis on Simulation Models 

5. Understanding of Diagnostic Testing 

6. Understanding of Model Strengths & Weaknesses 

7. A Better Understanding of Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty 

TARGET AUDIENCE 

The target audience for this seminar are actuaries that are new to statistical/probabilistic reserving or that want a ground-up refresher course. While some review of the theoretical underpinnings will be included, the emphasis will be on practical aspects of using stochastic models. 

PREPARATION 

A review of basic statistical concepts and an exercise set will be sent out prior to the start of the seminar. Attendees are expected to understand these concepts. A review of these statistical concepts will be held at the beginning of the seminar. 

Attendees are encouraged to read sections 1 through 3.1 (pages 1-24) of the Working Party on Quantifying Variability in Reserve Estimates final report prior to the seminar. However, no prior knowledge of the concepts and models in this report will be assumed. The seminar will be organized around the practical issues discussed in the Working Party report, including a hands-on look at several stochastic models. Fluency in Excel is recommended. 

Attendees are encouraged to bring the following:

1. A laptop computer that has Microsoft Excel loaded (2003 or later version recommended - earlier versions should still work, but the instructors cannot guarantee this ahead of time).  

2. The instructors will be using and distributing Excel files and using add-in tools to do numerical calculations. Be sure that the Analysis ToolPak, Analysis ToolPak - VBA and Solver Add-Ins for Excel are installed on your machine. Files will be distributed via email before the seminar.