CAS-SOA-CIA Joint Risk Management Section Issues Report on Long-Term Care in Canada

Future Long-Term Care in Canada

An Enterprise Risk Management Framework to Identify and Quantify Major Concerns

What are the key concerns among experts about the future of long-term care in Canada, and how much will these concerns matter ultimately?

The purpose of this study, sponsored by the CAS-SOA-CIA Joint Risk Management Section, is to report on a pilot analysis to identify some of the major risks relating to the future of long-term care for older Canadians. The researchers do so by taking an enterprise risk management (ERM) approach, a uniquely systematic structure to collect, organize, filter, and quantitatively express the web of concerns around the future sustainability of long-term care in Canada. Using a population microsimulation model to project the Canadian population through to 2050, they quantify the impacts of these risks on two fundamental metrics: public spending on long-term care and the magnitude of unpaid informal care by close family relatives.

This study provides a novel demonstration on how ERM can be applied to serve the public by informing decision makers on the risks facing the current and future delivery of long-term care. Although the study was not intended to make health policy commentary or recommendations, it has nevertheless revealed insights that are indicative of the uncertainty facing Canada with regard to the evolution of long-term care.

Report

Future Long-Term Care in Canada [PDF]

Questions or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.