Casualty Actuarial Society

Research

Committee on Reserves - 2003 Call Paper Program

Recent catastrophic events and financial disasters are evidence of the increasingly complex environment in which the property-casualty insurance industry operates. It is clearly a time of change and challenge for the industry, the actuarial profession, and for the reserving process within our profession. Are our current reserving methods adequate to estimate the impact of ever-changing and ever-increasing risks and exposures? Can our methods be improved for "standard" risks and exposures? Once our reserving methods are applied, what are the results to be presented and how should they be explained? How has the context for the reporting of results changed? To address these critical issues, the CAS Committee on Reserves is seeking papers related to the following topics:

  • Best Estimate and Ranges: Evaluation of best estimate and reasonable ranges of loss and loss adjustment expense liabilities including:
    • Derivation and measures of best estimate and reasonable range;
    • Combining best estimates and ranges for several lines of business;
    • nteraction of range, risk-margin and discounting;
    • Interaction of range and accounting standards - i.e. STAT, GAAP, International Accounting Standards, Fair Value.
  • Opinion Issues: Issues related to the new requirements for property and casualty reserving that impact on the preparation of Statements of Actuarial Opinion including:
    • ASOP No. 36 issues, including materiality, adverse deviation, and the expected value estimate;
    • Codification issues, such as management's best estimate vs. the actuary's estimate and premium deficiency reserves;
    • The reliability of the Opinion, including the quality of the data used in the analysis and reserve deficiencies and insolvencies.
  • Unique Exposures: Reserving for unique exposures such as:
    • Terrorism;
    • Natural catastrophes;
    • Mass torts;
    • Environmental liability;
    • Construction defects;
    • Mold and other new exposures;
    • Liabilities for health care organizations and providers.
  • Methodologies: New, alternative or improved techniques in reserving areas such as:
    • Loss adjustment expenses (LAE);
    • Reinsurance;
    • Dynamic Financial Analysis;
    • Simulation;
    • Data issues.
Call Paper Timetable
Timely submission of papers is critical to the success of the call. The procedures and timetable enumerated below will apply.
  • Deadline for Proposals
    By July 9, 2002, authors should submit proposals for their papers including the title, a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed, and the approach that will be taken. Proposals should be submitted electronically via e-mail to the Casualty Actuarial Society at office@casact.org. Please put "2003 Reserves Call Paper Proposal" in the subject line of the e-mail message.
  • Acceptance of Proposals
    The Committee will make a decision on all proposals. The number of accepted proposals may be limited. The Committee will contact authors regarding their proposals.
  • Monitoring Progress
    A Committee member will be assigned to work with each author to monitor the paper's progress and provide general guidance in completing the paper. By mutual agreement, the author and the assigned Committee member will establish a schedule for the production of interim drafts.

    By December 17, 2002, a first draft of the completed paper will be submitted to the assigned Committee member for review. By April 15, 2003, all comments on the first draft will have been forwarded to the author.

  • Completion Date
    By June 3, 2003, the Committee on Reserves must receive the completed paper and a short abstract (no more than 200 words) for their review. Authors will receive further instructions from the Committee for the name and address of the Committee member to receive the completed paper. Each paper will be screened by the Committee to assure its quality of exposition and relevance to the call. The Committee may require further rewriting of the paper to bring it to an acceptable standard.
  • Approving the Completed Paper
    By July 15, 2003, all authors will have been notified as to the results of this screening process. Accepted papers will be published in the CAS Forum and will be available on the CAS Web Site prior to the 2003 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar. Authors may be invited to present their papers at the CLRS scheduled for September 8-9, 2003 in Chicago, Ill. Each author should make every effort to attend the CLRS and present his/her paper.
  • Prize Competition
    A prize fund of $2,500 is available for the best papers submitted in response to the call, and if awarded, prizes will be announced and presented to the authors at the CLRS. Papers will be evaluated by an independent review committee that will judge the papers anonymously. The criteria for evaluation will include:
    • Originality of ideas;
    • Clarity of presentation;
    • Contribution to the literature on reserving; and,
    • Thoroughness of analysis.
  • Submission Guidelines
    Papers must be no more than 10,000 words and should be prepared in accordance with the procedures outlined in the "Guide for Submission to CAS Forum" on the CAS Web Site at www.casact.org/about/index.cfm?fa=forum. Additional guidance for the preparation of technical papers for publication is provided in the "Guides for the Submission of Papers" in the 2002 CAS Yearbook (pages 337-345) and on the CAS Web Site at www.casact.org/about/guides. In addition to a hard copy of the paper, authors will be required to provide an electronic copy of the paper on diskette or by e-mail, and will be asked to sign a "Permission to Publish.htm" form allowing the CAS to publish the paper. Authors are encouraged to submit working templates in spreadsheet form for models or methods discussed or developed in their papers. The spreadsheets will be posted on the CAS Web Site along with the paper.

    It is hoped that authors will also submit their papers for publication in the Proceedings in accordance with the procedures in the Yearbook. However, acceptance of a discussion paper for this call does not guarantee its acceptance for publication in the Proceedings.

    The Committee on Reserves looks forward to receiving proposals in response to the call, and is happy to respond to inquiries from interested parties. Questions may be addressed to Thomas Ryan or Deborah Rosenberg at their CAS Yearbook addresses or via e-mail to office@casact.org.