Wanted-Interested and Curious To Take on the Actuary "Supply" Model

Have you ever wondered how many colleagues you may have, five, ten, or even twenty years from now? Here is your opportunity to find out.

The CAS occasionally needs to have an idea of the number of casualty actuaries likely to be practicing in the future. Several years ago, the Long Range Planning Committee developed a model (the "Supply" model) that projects the numbers of new and employed Fellows and Associates. The model is somewhat elaborate, utilizing various assumptions and variables that influence the supply of future actuaries. Some of those assumptions are the number of new entrants to the exam process, the change in that number, "pass" rates, "take" rates, and "quit/death" rates. The model is in need of some updating and maintenance to keep it current with today’s (and tomorrow’s) exam structure.

The CAS would like to find an interested and curious member who is willing to take ownership of the model, updating its assumptions, validating its structure and logic in today’s (and tomorrow’s) exam environment, and analyzing and critiquing its output. The model currently resides on four computer disks and operates in an Excel (and Lotus) spreadsheet environment. Interested parties should obviously be spreadsheet-competent.

The Supply model is by no means cast in cement. The objective that the model was originally intended to serve (project the number of casualty actuaries) still has merit, and interested persons are, of course, free to either work with and adjust the Supply model as they see fit, or to pursue independent (and perhaps simpler) routes in fulfillment of the purpose. Suggested modifications and a final version will be subject to review and approval by the CAS Long Range Planning Committee.

Interested parties should contact either Ed Shoop at (818) 878-2273 or Tim Tinsley at the CAS Office at (703) 276-3106. Ed will be glad to help in getting you started.