Brainstorms
Is That Ewe, Dolly?

by Stephen W. Philbrick

As I sit here typing these words, it is only a few days after the announcement that Scottish scientists have successfully cloned an adult sheep. By the time these words are read, will it be yesterday's news, a factlet whose only use will be to stump one's opponent in a future trivia game? Or will it still be one of the more important news events of the century?

Why on earth is this subject relevant to actuaries?

I will go out on a limb and predict that this event will deserve a place in history books. In the short run, comedians will have a field day with the serendipitous juxtaposition of Scots, sheep and cloning. The second question is harder to answer from the narrow vantage point of a property/casualty actuary, but if we think of ourselves as members of the broad actuarial community, several interesting issues arise. The broad ethical questions overwhelm the actuarial issues, but perhaps the actuarial profession can use its expertise to supplement the debates.

The most obvious actuarial questions relate to life and annuity questions. Presumably, we will know more about the life expectancy of a clone than we know about an individual chosen at random. This knowledge will increase in subsequent generations, assuming a large number of first generation clones, with enough data points to calculate individual-specific mortality tables. The use of credibility theory and experience rating as normally practiced by casualty actuaries is not commonly found in individual life questions, but these techniques could become much more applicable. Thus, one ramification of widespread cloning is the need to transfer casualty actuarial applications to life and health questions.

One of the more obvious concerns of widespread cloning is the potential for reduction of biological diversity. While clearly we will not, for example, decide to select a single pig and create the entire porcine population from that single member, legitimate questions may be asked about the breadth of diversity needed. Are 10,000 unique pigs sufficient to eliminate concerns about a transformed virus wiping out the species? Do we need 1,000,000 different versions? More? It seems likely that the answer to this question could be addressed with a sophisticated model of the genetic process, in order to balance the need for diversity against the desire to clone specific animals with particular attributes. While actuaries are not the only professionals with experience in mathematical modeling of this type, clearly the training of actuaries provides a background helpful to either developing such models, or providing an intelligent critique of models developed by others.

Those interested in more details can read several well-written articles in Slate, the on-line magazine, which is located at http://www.Slate.com.

A list of potential applications of cloning, with commentary, is located at
http://www.slate.com/weekclones/97-03-01/weekclones.asp.

An article on how the cloning was performed is located at
http://www.slate.com/Features/Biology/Biology.asp.

An article on the relationship of cloning to twin studies is located at
http://www.slate.com/Features/Multiplicity/Multiplicity.asp.

One of these articles points out that Dolly is not the first cloned mammal, as many news reports have stated. (For that matter, she is not the first cloned sheep, nor even the first successful cloning performed by Scottish scientists.)

To further "Brainstorm" on this issue, post your thoughts and ideas in the Public Discussion Forum.