Winning Rally
By Marty Adler

Actuarial thinking has many useful applications. I was surprised, however, to learn that it is useful when competing in road rallies. So says John Stenmark, CAS Fellow and former national rally champion.

Planning rally strategy is fairly involved. Prior to the rally, each two-person team gets a set of general instructions, which are basic guidelines for following the rally route. They can study these instructions ahead of time and try to become so familiar with them that they can make split-second decisions on the course. Teams get the actual route instructions a few minutes before they start.

A road rally is not a free-for-all for speeders. There are speed limitations and most of the time teams are given actual speeds to travel. Teams are automatically disqualified if the police stop them for moving violations like speeding.

The course is measured in hundredths, or even thousandths, of miles. When a car arrives at a checkpoint, it is timed to the hundredth of a minute. Your score is the difference between the perfect calculated arrival time and the actual arrival time in hundredths of a minute. For example, if you arrive on time your score is 0, and if you are one minute late your score is 100. The lowest score wins.

Getting to the finish line ahead of time is not rewarded, however. The penalty for being early is just as severe as for being late. One risk in running early is that sometimes the checkpoints cannot be easily seen in advance.

Being overly cautious can also cost you. If you stop or slow down dramatically in front of a checkpoint, you will be penalized. Penalties vary from rally to rally, and a "creeping" or stopping penalty can easily move a person from first place to third or fourth. People who work the checkpoint have the responsibility of assessing penalties.

Course rallys have all kinds of traps. Course developers may take road names or signs into consideration for these traps. The idea is to trick teams into following the wrong course to the checkpoint. Sometimes instructions may tell teams to divide their current speed by 1/2 and travel the resultant speed. So, if you were going 20 mph, your new speed would be 40 mph. The less numerate competitors often end up going 10 mph. Sometimes yellow road signs, like curve arrows, are used to direct your route through an intersection. Your general instructions, however, might tell you that all signs used on the rally will be on the right of the route you would have traveled in the absence of the sign. This trap can "drive" you insane when you are at an intersection trying to figure out which way to go. You may have numbered instructions and then additional lettered instructions that take priority over numbered instructions. It can get quite devious.

The course designer, or rallymaster, creates the route but does not compete. Being a rallymaster is a lot of work. For a national or divisional rally, it can take months to design a good course. Once designed, the course is checked for accuracy by several teams who may not compete in the event.

It takes considerable effort to put on a rally. In addition to the rallymaster, there are many other workers, including those who work the checkpoints timing the cars. There are at least three workers for each checkpoint. Also, a lead car driver familiar with the course precedes the actual competitors and runs through the course about 30 minutes before the estimated arrival time of the first car to make sure that the checkpoints are open and that the integrity of the course has not been compromised.

John Stenmark met his wife Janice at a divisional rally in Jackson, Mississippi in 1979. Janice and her partner won the race and John was the rallymaster. John and Janice discovered that they had a similar mental approach to competition. The following year he was rallymaster of a national rally in Jackson and Janice was again a competitor. The competition was even tougher, with teams converging from all over the country. Janice won the rally and John won her hand when he proposed marriage. A few months later they married. Until then they had both been navigators, so when they teamed up they realized that one person would have to switch to driver. John switched roles and Janice continued to navigate (which, in her opinion, is telling the driver where to go).

In 1990 the couple were national champions. Their performance was based on several qualifying events at which they accumulated points for their finishing position. There is a limit to the number of events a team can use for competition. At the end of the year everyone's points are totaled and the highest number wins. The prize was a medal, a plaque, and embroidered silk racing jackets. They were also listed in the national book of all rally winners.

Road rallies have given the couple many memories. On one rally in New York state, John and Janice managed to get lost three times on the odometer check. Janice once had a rally partner who claimed that if you got lost on the odometer check-the first part of the rally where you get to compare your mileage with the car that measured the course-you would win the rally. That part of the course is trap free and very straightforward. It's pretty hard to get lost.

The first time they were lost they said they'd win; the second time, they began to doubt their chances. By the third time, they were merely hoping to limp through the course. All in all, it was a fairly bad day. Instead of going to the rally festivities at the end of the event, they went out to dinner with a relative. When they returned to their hotel, their daughter Kristin told them that they were the rally winners. It seemed that several legs of the rally were eliminated because of various protests, and when the final results were tallied, they indeed had won. They still laugh about the unexpected win.

And so, John Stenmark has put his actuarial acumen to work in an exciting and challenging pursuit. When not racing, John Stenmark is the vice president-actuary for Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company. Janice Stenmark is a retired mental health professional, heavily involved in volunteer work.