2017 Call for Predictive Modeling Research Papers
The Casualty Actuarial Society is pleased to introduce a peer reviewed call for discussion papers on ratemaking topics. This call will focus on Predictive Modeling topics and have both one-year and two-year cycles, and demonstrates our efforts to improve the process for submitting and reviewing papers, giving authors sufficient time to explore topics, and submit high-quality research. The one-year cycle is for papers that are already written and require peer and editorial review. The two-year cycle is designed to provide structure and guidance to authors as they develop their proposal concept into a research paper in addition to a peer review. Published papers will be noted as peer reviewed.
Ratemaking is a major area of expertise for casualty actuaries; it is important that timely, relevant, and high-quality research is fostered and published. The Ratemaking Discussion Paper Program is offered to further these goals and to provide additional material for basic and continuing education purposes. Papers will be reviewed for acceptance based on:
- Originality of ideas
- Understandability of concepts
- Contribution to the ratemaking literature
- Thoroughness of ideas expressed
- Timeliness, relevance and applicability of research
Authors of accepted papers may be invited to present their work at the 2016/2017 Ratemaking and Product Management (RPM) Seminar. In addition, the papers will be published and will be available on the CAS web site. A total prize fund of $5,000 is available for papers submitted in response to the call, with up to $2,500 awarded to the best paper(s) and up to $2,500 awarded to the most practical paper(s). Both CAS members and non-members are invited to submit proposals for papers.
All papers on predictive modeling topics are welcome. Suggested predictive modeling topics based on current events and topics that deserve new or continued research are listed below.
- Scoring Models
- Deployment strategies
- Ensemble methods for Modeling risk
- Mixing multiple modeling methods
- Usage based automobile insurance
- Applications focused on large data sets
- Deploying sophisticated models within a regulatory framework
- Deploying sophisticated models within a corporate environment
- Monitoring and evolving the modeling process
Call Paper Timetable
Timely submission of the discussion papers is critical. The procedures and timetable enumerated below apply.
- Deadline for Proposals and Completed Papers
By May 15, 2015, authors must submit proposals for their papers including the suggested title, a short description of the topic(s) to be addressed, the approach that will be taken, and a survey of existing actuarial literature on the subject (title and abstract of a maximum of the five most relevant papers). Authors should review the criteria for acceptance shown above, and the format of papers shown below. Proposals should be submitted electronically, including contact information, via e-mail to Karen Sonnet at the Casualty Actuarial Society at email@example.com. Please put “2017 Predictive Modeling Call Paper Program” in the subject line of the email. Proposals will follow the two-year cycle.
Alternatively, by May 15, 2015, authors may submit a completed paper that has not been previously published. Completed papers should be submitted electronically, including contact information, via e-mail to Karen Sonnet at the Casualty Actuarial Society at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please put “2017 Predictive Modeling Call Paper Program” in the subject line of the email. These papers will follow the one-year cycle.
- Acceptance of Proposals and Completed Papers
By June 15, 2015, the Committee on Ratemaking will decide which proposals and completed papers are accepted. The number of accepted proposals may be limited. The Ratemaking Discussion Paper Chairperson will contact the authors regarding the decision.
- One-Year Cycle Important Dates
A Call Paper Sub-Committee will be assigned to provide peer review within the timeframes. The sub-committee Chairperson will monitor progress. Authors are encouraged to share drafts with Karen Sonnet at the Casualty Actuarial Society at email@example.com as work progresses, and are required to submit interim drafts according to the following schedule:
- By August 1, 2015 comments from peer review will be delivered to the author(s).
- By October 1, 2015, a final version of papers addressing the comments of the peer reviewers will be submitted under the completed paper track for review.
- By December 2, 2015, authors of papers submitted under the completed paper track will be notified if the paper will be accepted in the 2017 Call. Accepted papers will be published and available on the CAS Web Site prior to the 2016 RPM Seminar and authors may be invited to present their papers at the Seminar.
- Completed Papers are also eligible for consideration for a Ratemaking Paper Prize to be awarded at the 2017 RPM Seminar.
- Two-Year Cycle Important Dates
A Call Paper Sub-Committee will be assigned to work with each author to monitor the paper's progress and to provide general guidance in completing the paper within the timeframes. The sub-committee Chairperson will monitor progress. Authors are encouraged to share drafts with Karen Sonnet at the Casualty Actuarial Society at firstname.lastname@example.org as work progresses, and are required to submit interim drafts according to the following schedule:
- By December 2, 2015, a completed draft of the paper will be submitted for review.
- By March 3, 2016, the Sub-Committee will forward review comments on the draft to the author(s).
- By June 2, 2016, a second draft of the paper will be submitted to for review.
- By August 1, 2016, the Sub-Committee will forward review comments on the second draft to the author(s).
- Two-Year Cycle Completion Date
By October 1, 2016, a final version of papers addressing the comments of the peer reviewers will be submitted for a final review by the entire Committee on Ratemaking including a 200-word abstract. Each paper will be screened by the Committee to assure its quality of exposition, relevance to the call and to ratemaking research, and adherence to format requirements described below. The Committee reserves the right to not publish a submission.
- Approving the Two-Year Cycle Paper
By December 2, 2016, authors will be notified of the results of the review process. Accepted papers will be published and will be available on the CAS Web Site prior to the 2017 RPM Seminar.
- Presenting the Two-Year Cycle Papers
Authors may be invited to present their papers at the March 2017 CAS RPM Seminar. These authors will be contacted in advance of the meeting regarding their presentations.
- Prize Competition
All papers submitted and accepted in response to the call and meeting the minimum standards established by the Committee will be included in the prize competition. A prize fund of $2,500 is available for the best paper(s) submitted in response to the call and will be presented to the author(s) at the 2017 RPM Seminar. An additional prize fund of $2,500 is available for the most practical paper(s) submitted in response to this call. An independent review committee will judge the papers anonymously and will select the best paper(s). If no paper is considered eligible, the award shall not be made. There is also no guarantee that the prize fund, set at a level to fund more than one prize, shall be exhausted.
- Format of Papers
Papers must be no more than 10,000 words and should be prepared in accordance with the Research Paper Template, and the procedures in the Guide for Submission to CAS E-Forum on the CAS Web Site. Key words in the abstract should be based on the CAS Research Taxonomy, also on the CAS Web Site. Authors will be required to execute a "Permission to Publish" form, which formally grants the CAS permission to publish the paper. Authors are encouraged to submit working templates in spreadsheet form for models or methods discussed or developed in their papers and/or PowerPoint presentations incorporating the details of the paper's calculations. The spreadsheets and presentations of published papers will be posted on the CAS Web Site along with the paper. Until the paper is accepted for publication, please do not include any reference to the authors name, to preserve the anonymous review process.
The Committee on Ratemaking looks forward to receiving proposals in response to the call, and is happy to respond to inquiries from interested parties. Questions may be addressed to the Committee on Ratemaking via e-mail to email@example.com.
Your participation in this effort will contribute to the written body of knowledge for the CAS and to the success of the 2017 Ratemaking Research Call Paper Program.