CSAF 2012 Annual Meeting Information and Presentations
Date: September 27 - 28, 2012
Location: EMC Insurance Companies, 717 Mulberry Street, Des Moines, Iowa
The challenges facing members of the actuarial profession continue to grow. At the same time, credentialed actuaries have increased requirements for continuing education. The CSAF is here to help you meet those challenges. This meeting will provide cost-effective continuing education as well as networking opportunities. Membership in the CSAF is open to any member of the Casualty Actuarial Society residing or working in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, or South Dakota. Subscribership is open to professors and teachers of insurance or actuarial mathematics, persons performing work of an actuarial nature, other persons of recognized standing in the actuarial profession, and actuarial students. Full time college students (including May graduates) are invited to attend the meeting at a reduced cost.
We continue to keep the CSAF enrollment fees within the meeting registration fees. All meeting attendees who meet membership requirements are members of the CSAF and eligible to vote at the meeting.
Our next annual CSAF meeting is set for Thursday afternoon, September 27th, 2012 and Friday, September 28th, 2012 in Des Moines, Iowa. The meeting will be held at EMC Insurance Companies, 717 Mulberry Street, Des Moines, IA.
Please register via the CAS website, by Monday, September 24th to allow us to finalize meal counts.
The meeting fees are shown below. Please register via the CAS website. The meeting will be held on the afternoon of Thursday September 27th and all day Friday September 28th. Plan on having lunch before arriving at the meeting on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, both a continental breakfast and lunch will be included. Meeting fees are reduced for CSAF subscribers (actuarial students and academics), retirees, government employees, and full-time college students. Please indicate your status when you register.
|Thursday Afternoon Sept 27th (no lunch)||Friday All Day Sept 28th (includes 2 meals)||Both Days|
|CSAF Member - members of the CAS||$25||$75||$100|
|CSAF Subscriber - those working towards CAS membership||$10||$40||$50|
|Government Employee, Professor or retired CSAF member||$0||$20||$20|
|Full-time College Student||$0||$10||$10|
|Guest (None of the above)||$30||$80||$110|
IOWA ACTUARIES CLUB LUNCH MEETING
We have coordinated the start of the CSAF meeting to be right after the Iowa Actuaries Club meeting, scheduled during lunch on Thursday, approximately 2 blocks away. CSAF members are invited to attend the IAC meeting.
Thursday September 27, 2012
Hotel Fort Des Moines
Grand Ballroom (2nd floor) Doors Open at 11:45 am
Lunch Served at 12:00 pm (Mexican Fiesta Lunch Buffet)
Guest Speaker: Kansas Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger
Topic: Healthcare Reform
Cost for IAC Meeting $20.00 per person.
Please make checks payable to the Iowa Actuaries Club. (Note that it is a separate registration process from the CSAF registration.) Please compile reservations for your company and e-mail totals to Dan Henderson at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Checks can be mailed to:
- Iowa Actuaries Club
Attn: Dan Henderson
1100 Locust Street,
Des Moines, IA 50391-4115
CENTRAL STATES ACTUARIAL FORUM MEETING AGENDA
|Thursday, September 27, 2012|
|1:30 - 2:20 PM||Building Communication Skills Through Improvisation
Using fundamental exercises from the theater genre of improvisation, attendees will interact with this session's facilitator to examine business communications. The facilitator will guide attendees with suggestions to improve their communication and negotiation skills. In small groups, attendees will participate in improvisational exercises that emphasize the importance of listening in communication. Attendees will:
Facilitator: Robert Morand, President and Managing Partner, D.W. Simpson Global Actuarial & Analytics Recruitment
|2:20 - 3:00||Storm activity - Is There Evidence of a Long Term Trend?
Natural catastrophes and storms have stolen the headlines over the past few years and are on the minds of actuaries at most property exposed insurance companies. In this session we will review historical weather data and look for long term trends to assist us in making more informed decisions.
Speaker: Scott Jean, Chief Actuary, EMC Insurance Companies
|3:00 - 3:10 PM||Break|
|3:10 - 3:50||Federal Crop Insurance Program
This session will focus exclusively on the Federal Crop Insurance program. This will include a description of coverage offered to farmers, the operational differences between the program and traditional Property/Casualty insurance, changes introduced by the 2008 Farm Bill, the renegotiation of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement effective in 2011, the outlook for the 2012 Farm Bill, the effect of recent rate activity on the profitability of the program, as well as the potential impact of the 2012 drought.
Speaker: Frank Schnapp, Senior Vice President, National Crop Insurance Services (NCIS)
|3:50 - 4:30 PM||Flood Insurance - American Academy of Actuaries Involvement
In 2008, Congressional authorization for the National Flood Insurance Program expired. Between 2008 and 2012, Congress passed a series of short-term authorizations while postponing a longer-term reform bill. During that time, the Flood Subcommittee of the American Academy of Actuaries researched the issues involved and produced a monograph to inform actuaries and others about the NFIP. Based on that monograph, the Subcommittee provided communications to Congress to give them guidance from an actuarial viewpoint. In 2012, Congress passed a long-term flood authorization law. This presentation will briefly explain the NFIP, discuss the Academy's involvement, and talk about the 2012 law.
Speaker: Stuart B. Mathewson, Senior Pricing Actuary, Swiss Re America
|4:30 - 4:40 PM||Break|
|4:40 - 5:30 PM||Update from the CAS Board
This session will discuss recent CAS Board initiatives and strategic objectives. Topics will include:
|6:00 PM||Optional Networking Happy Hour
Court Avenue Brewing Company and Restaurant (approx. 4 blocks away)
(Appetizers will be available, purchase your own drink.)
|Friday, September 28, 2012|
|7:15 – 8:00 AM||Continental Breakfast|
|8:00 - 8:10 AM||CSAF Business Meeting|
|8:10 - 9:00 AM||Professionalism and the Casualty Actuary
While our actuarial education provides us with the requisite knowledge to practice as actuaries, the scope of our practice is guided by professionalism requirements. This session will discuss relevant professionalism requirements, including:
|9:00 - 10:10 AM||Price Change/Price Adequacy Measurement Systems
Most insurance companies attempt to capture the impact of price changes and quantify their effect on overall rate adequacy. However there is no standard method in use in the industry today. This presentation talk about the uses of price monitoring and will present several methods for calculating price change and price adequacy change metrics. The price metrics will be demonstrated and compared using a common sample set of policies. The session will wrap up with a brief discussion on the challenges and decisions one faces when setting up a price monitoring system.
Speaker: Anthony Hill, Managing Director, Swiss Re
|10:10 - 10:20 AM||Break|
|10:20 - 11:00 AM||An Update on Copula Regressions
Regression analysis is one of the most commonly used statistical methods. But in its basic form, ordinary least squares (OLS) is not suitable for many actuarial applications, because the relationships are often nonlinear and the probability distribution of the dependent variable may be non-normal. A standard approach to dealing with the issue of non-normality is to apply an appropriate transformation to bring the dependent variable to normality and then use OLS. A more recent approach which has been successful in addressing these challenges is the use of generalized linear models (GLM) which, instead of transforming the original problem to fit the assumptions of ordinary least squares regression, instead models the, possibly non-normal, dependent variable directly. A potential limitation of GLMs, however, is that the relationship between variables must be amenable to being modeled with a distribution from the class of distributions in the Exponential Family. A third, more recent approach, has attempted to combine both the generality of GLM's with the flexibility of Copula techniques. In the paper, Copula Regression, Variance, 2011, Volume 5, Issue 1 such an approach was presented by Rahul Parsa and Stuart Klugman. One of the major advantages of this new approach, Copula Regression, is that there are no restrictions on the probability distributions that can be used to model the random variables. Hence heavy-tailed distributions, which are common for P&C actuaries, can be modeled. In this paper Parsa and Klugman illustrate the efficacy and flexibility of this new method for modeling such heavy tailed data. The copula regression methodology suggests an alternate possibility, that of a transformed linear approximation to Copula Regression, or more specifically accurately a 'CDF' transformed approximation. Upon applying this CDF transformation, the resulting variables are normally distributed. In this talk, Dr. Parsa will present the effect of transformation on the regression, and the bias in the estimates. He will also show the modeling with sample data.
Speaker: Rahul A. Parsa, PhD, Professor of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Drake University
|11:00 - 11:50 AM||Investing in Math that Matters
Every actuary learns to love math in elementary school. Math education begins long before your first actuarial exam. This session features what we know about the brain, how it loves to play with math and how today’s classrooms are being retrofitted with a common core of national standards that will affect every student’s math education from kindergarten through grade twelve. As an educator, Maureen will describe some new developments in math education standards, techniques and technologies that make a difference in math achievement and introduce how the work of The Actuarial Foundation is making an impact in what resources teachers are looking for in today’s classroom.
Speaker: Maureen L. Hager, Ed.D.
|12:10 - 12:50 PM||Lunch Speaker: U.S. Solvency Regulation -- Impact on P&C Actuaries
Since 2008 through the NAIC, state insurance regulators have embarked on a process to improve the insurance solvency regulatory framework in the U.S., including a review of international developments and other potential options for use in U.S. Insurance regulation. This session will focus on the changes in regulatory reporting likely to have an impact on actuaries and will compare the new U.S. regulatory framework to the EU's proposed Solvency II.
Speaker: Kris DeFrain, Director, National Association of Insurance Commissioners
|12:50 - 1:00 PM||Break|
|1:00 - 2:10 PM||Hands on: How to use Generalized Linear Models to Model Loss Triangles
This is a hands-on session. Bring your fully charged laptop, and have Excel and the Solver add-in activated.
Participants in this session will learn how to use a simple generalized linear model (GLM) to model a loss triangle. Like the chain ladder, a GLM captures accident year and development year trends, but it can also capture calendar year trends. You need to know your historical calendar year trends to understand how changing future trends can affect your pricing and reserving. This is a key risk in the current uncertain inflationary environment. By the end of this session, you will understand how the basic GLM model works for a loss triangle. No prior knowledge needed.
Speakers: Jessica Leong and Blake Berman, Guy Carpenter
|2:10 - 2:25 PM||Break|
|2:25 - 3:15 PM||Own Risk and Solvency Assessment
This session will provide an overview of insurance regulatory changes, focused on NAIC ORSA. It will include discussion of insurers' perceived readiness for implementing ORSA and observations from the ORSA pilot project.
Speaker: Patricia Smolen and Scott Scott Weinstein, KPMG
|3:20 PM||Meeting Concludes|
Friday: College Student Track
We’re offering several special sessions specifically for college students (shown in red below).
8:10 - 9:00 am Professionalism and the Casualty Actuary
9:00 - 10:10 am Price Change / Price Adequacy Measurement Systems
10:20 - 11:00 Actuaries in International Roles (Moderator: Regina Berens, Lockton Companies)
11:00 - 11:50 Investing in Math that Matters
11:50 am - 12:10 pm Go through lunch buffet lines
12:10 - 12:50 pm During Lunch: U.S. Solvency Regulation -- Impact on P&C Actuaries
1:00 - 2:10What Companies Look for in Actuarial New Hires (Moderator: Carol Sorenson, Zurich)
2:25 - 3:15 Own Risk and Solvency Assessment
The meeting will be held at EMC Insurance Companies, 717 Mulberry Street, Des Moines, IA
EMC INSURANCE COMPANIES
There are two possible entrances to EMC Insurance Companies:
- Enter at 717 Mulberry Street and the receptionist will direct you where to go.
- There is also a skywalk entrance with a receptionist. The skywalk system connects with Hotel Fort Des Moines, the Marriott, and the Hotel Savery. It also connects to the Court Avenue Brewing Company where the networking event will be Thursday evening.
The best option may be to park at your hotel and walk to EMC Insurance Companies from there.
Please visit http://desmoinesiowahotels.us/ for hotel options.