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I believe there are two possibilities here:
1. The development factor for AY 1985 from 36-48 months is higher
than the average of the previous years.
1.237vs. 1.1937). Using a dampening effect similar to that used for
AY 1986 48-60 month factor ---
1.237/1.1937 = 1.0363. The square root of this is 1.0179.
However, assume the analyst belives this effect should be further
dampened and takes the square root of 1.0179 which = 1.0089. Then
1.085*1.0089=1.095. I know this explanation is way out there but the
only other one I can come up with is
2.. This is a typo that is carried forward on this example
----------
From: Kathy Miller[SMTP:Kathleen.C.MILLER@state.or.us]
Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 9:59 AM
To: studygroup7@lists.casact.org
Subject: Wiser, Loss Reserving - Foundations
page 186-187
(first triangle) AY 1986 ,developing 36-48 mos goes from 1.27 to 1.32
(second triangle) via 1.27*(1.465/1.35)^.5
How does 1985's 48-60 mos go from 1.085 to 1.095?
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