Paul_Budde@blanch.com on 07/23/98 09:55:04 AM
To: studygroup7@casact.org @ INTERNET
cc:
From: Paul_Budde@blanch.com
Date: 07/23/98 09:55 AM
Subject: Johnson Exhibit Question
In Wendy Johnson's paper "Determination of Outstanding Liabilities for
ULAE", p. 117, Exhibit 1, note f at the bottom, she has the parameters
of her curve fitting for column f. Part of this makes sense in that the
numbers in column f rise at 17.4% per year and with b=0.16067,
exp(0.16067) = 1.174. However with this understanding, in the
interpolation y = a exp(bx), y should be column f, not column e as is in
the paper. And a negative value for "a" makes no sense at all, for then
all the "y"s are negative too.
Does anyone understand what is going on here, or have a correction?
Thanks,
Paul
Paul Budde
EWB
Mpls