Fwd:Re:Paper #1:Loss Development Using Credibility

shina_fritz@inscorphanovr.com
Thu, 9 Jul 1998 16:47:41 UT

I apologize in advance for those of you who are getting this again. I believe
not everyone in the group got this (I got some error message from the CAS server
about not being part of the list....hmm I must have bad karma). Hopefully this
will work! Anyway, Enjoy!

Shina

____________________Forward Header_____________________
Subject: Re:Paper #1:Loss Development Using Credibility
Author: Shina Fritz
Date: 7/9/98 9:34 AM

Here's my no-brainer lists for this paper:

Problems with the least squares method and solutions
1. when a<0 : use loss dev. method
2. when b<0 use budget loss method

Other recommended adjustments for least squares
- Inflation
- growth (use ratio to premium or exposure)
- Berquist-Sherman adjustments

Situations to use least squares method
- Develop losses for small states
- devleop losses for LOB with volatile loss experience

Pros for least squares method
- flexible
- makes theoretical sense
- good for more volatile lines if EP is used to adj.
- easy to use or calculate

I apologize in advance for the brevity or cryptic way it's shown above. They
are from my old note cards. Enjoy!

Shina