marker and mohl 1990

bill g ( billg5@yahoo.com )
Thu, 22 Apr 1999 05:05:24 -0700 (PDT)

You are pricing a claims made policy for the 1991 year using occurrence
year 1990 data. Under existing conditions ypu estimate that 1990
occurrence year losses will be reported in the following report years

1990 (40%), 1991 (20%), 1992 (20%), 1993 (10%), 1994 (10%)
if loss costs increasing at an annual rate of 10%, what is th e 1991
mature claims made multipule of the 1991 occurrence premium ?
a <.88,b>=.88,<.92,c>=.92,<.96,d>=.96,<1.,e>=1.

my solution
90,91,92,93,94,95

40,44 end
20,22,24.2end
20,22,24.2,26.62end
10,11,12.1,13.31,14.64end
10,11,12.1,13.31,14.64,16.11end
so have (44+22+22+11+11)/(44+24.2+26.62+14.64+16.11)

which is 0.876;

csm however has

90,91,92,93,94,95
40end
18.18,20end
16.528,18.18,20end
7.513,8.264,9.0904,10end
6.830,7.513,8.264,9.0904,10end
for (40+18.18+16.528+7.513+6.830)/(40+20+20+10+10)

or .8905; which solution is correct???
thank you for your help

bill

billg5@yahoo.com

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