Hi. I'm Howard Mahler and I will be the moderator of the CAS Part 4B Stud=
y
Group.
I am a Fellow of the CAS, but I am not (currently) on the Exam Committee=
=2E
Nothing said by me or the participants in the Study Group should be take=
n
as in any way official.
Certainly I do not speak for the CAS Exam Committee.
(I teach the Part 4B Seminar for New England Actuarial Seminars, but my
role here is unconnected with NEAS. If you have questions about NEAS
Seminars or Study Aids, contact me outside this Study Group.) =
My understanding is this will be a unstructured discussion, so as long a=
s
you are polite and stick to Part 4B related matters anything goes. I will=
only intervene if I think things are out of control.
I suggest the following guidelines:
1. Sign your messages, first and last name.
2. Be clear. If referring to a past exam question be sure to mention the
year, sping or fall and question number. If referring to a syllabus
reading, again be as specific as you can. Page number, equation number,
edition, etc. If referring to a question of comment of someone else in t=
he
Study Group, be as clear as you can about what the other person said.
(Copying what they said may be best.) Redunancy in this case is good.
3. Be polite. Do not make attempts at humor. Stay on the subject. (Feel
free to continue non-relevant discussions outside the study group.)
4. It is not always necessary to chime in with a message that consists
solely of "I agree." (If it is repeat what and who are agreeing with.) =
Generally I do not plan to say very much. We are fortunate to have Dr.
Klugman, one of the authors of the Hogg & Klugman text, who has volunteer=
ed
to share some thoughts with you from time to time. Again, Dr. Klugman doe=
s
not speak for the CAS. While it might be wise to apply more credibility t=
o
something Dr. Klugman says, than to something another participant says,
that is your choice. =
We hope you will find this useful in your efforts to Study for Part 4B.
Suggestions on improvements can be sent to me by Email,
HMahler@compuserve.com
As a start, I have included some suggestions you might find helpful in
studying the Syllabus material.
Read the "Hints on Study and Exam Techniques" in the CAS Syllabus.
Write to the CAS (Casualty Actuarial Society, 1100 North Glebe Road, Suit=
e =
600, Arlington, Virginia, 22203) to get copies of recent 4B Exams.
(Currently it is $5 for the latest exam and $15 for the last three. Besid=
es
the exam, letter solutions for each exam are provided.) =
You should do as many problems as possible. Going back and forth between
reading and doing problems is the only way to pass Part 4B. The only way=
to learn to solve problems is to solve problems. You should not feel
satisfied with your study of a subject until you can solve a reasonable
number of the problems. =
There are two manners in which you should be doing problems. First you ca=
n
do problems in order to learn the material. Take as long on each problem =
as you need to fully understand the concepts and the solution. Reread the=
relevant syllabus material. Carefully go over the solution to see if you
really know what to do. Think about what would happen if one or more
aspects of the question were revised. This manner of doing problems shoul=
d
be gradually replaced by the following manner as you get closer to the
exam.
The second manner is to do a series of problems from a single exam under
exam conditions, (with the Normal Table & Appendix of Hogg & Klugman.) Ta=
ke
in advance a number of points to try based on the time available. For
example, if you have an uninterrupted hour, then one might try 60 / 2.5 =3D=
24 points of problems. Do problems as you would on an exam in any order,
skipping some and coming back to some, until you run out of time. I sugge=
st
you leave time to double check your work.
Expose yourself somewhat to everything on the syllabus. Try not to get
bogged down on a single topic. Make a schedule and stick to it. Spend a
minimum of one hour every day. (I recommend at least two study sessions
every day, each of at least 1/2 hour.) =
Some students want suggestions for an order in which to go through the
material. Whatever order works for you is the best. However, one possible=
order that may work for some students is:
Frequency Distributions: HPZ Chapters 4,5
Classical Credibility: HPZ Chapter. 8.1-8.4, Herzog Chapter 5 =
Loss Distribution Fundamentals: HPZ Chapter 6.1-6.4,
Hogg & Klugman Appendix
Bayes Analysis: Philbrick "Examination of Credibility Concepts", HPZ
Chapter 8.5-8.6, Herzog Chapters 1, 2, 4 =
Loss Distributions Statistical Inferences: Hogg & Klugman Chapter 3.1-3=
=2E4
Buhlmann Credibility Theory: Herzog Chapter 6
Testing Fit of Models: Hogg & Klugman Chapter 3.6
Simulation: Herzog Study Note
Modeling & Applications of Loss Distributions: Hogg & Klugman Chapters 4.=
1,
4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 5.2;
Conjugate Priors: Herzog Chapters 8, 9, 10
Below is a table of the points per topic on recent Exams. It may aid you =
in directing your study efforts. While the past breakdown of points may
help
to estimate the future, it won't necessarily reflect the mix of question=
s
that will occur on your exam.
Frequency Losses Class=
=2E
Cred. Bulh. Cred. Conj. Priors Simulation
Dist. Dist. =
Average =
5/91 to 5/98 4.1 25.2 =
=
4.6 16.1 7.4 2.5
Standard Deviation 2.3 3.0 =
2.2 3.5 2.5 1.3=
Average of
Last 6 Exams 4.5 25.5 =
=
4.2 17.2 5.7 3.0=
=
I hope some of your find this of some help,
Howard Mahler