Note: The deadline for submitting proposals to this call paper program
has been extended to November 1, 1999.
The Casualty Actuarial Society is pleased to extend a call for papers on
the topic of “Estimating Liabilities for Emerging Insurance Issues.” The
purpose of this call for papers is to encourage communication of work
being done regarding upcoming areas of concern to actuaries responsible
for estimating an insurance company's loss and loss adjustment expense
reserves. Authors of accepted papers may be invited to present their
work at the 2000 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar. In addition, the papers
will be published in the CAS Forum and will be available on the CAS Web
Site prior to the Seminar. A $1,000 prize will be awarded to the best
paper submitted. Both CAS members and non-members are invited to submit
proposals for papers.
During the next millennium, actuaries will be increasingly called upon
to evaluate insurers’ liabilities relating to potentially volatile
exposures with limited relevant historical data available to assist
them. In particular, changes in current mass tort issues, the potential
for future mass tort issues, and other emerging, non-mass tort-related
issues will present significant challenges to the reserving actuary.
Reserving papers relating to (though not limited to) the following list
of topics are being sought:
--Y2K, a.k.a. the Millennium Bug. How should Y2K losses be modeled? When
should Y2K loss reserves be accrued? Should they be accrued at all?
How should Y2K-related litigation costs (i.e., related to insurers
seeking to deny coverage) be modeled? Discussions relating to the
different types of Y2K claims and coverage triggers are also being
sought.
--Tobacco. Should tobacco-related loss reserves be established? If so,
how? How can tobacco-related litigation costs (i.e., related to
insurers seeking to deny coverage) be estimated?
--Internet Liability. What type(s) of Internet-related liability face
an insurer? How can these costs be estimated?
--Allocation of Mass Tort Claim Costs. What are the major issues to be
considered when trying to allocate mass tort claim costs among
policyholders, insurers and reinsurers? How have these issues been
resolved in the various allocation rulings in key mass tort cases?
--What Makes a Mass Tort? Specifically, what makes some mass torts
sizzle (like asbestos and pollution claims) while others only fizzle
(like electromagnetic field and repetitive stress injury claims)? What
new types of mass torts are likely to threaten the insurance industry in
the future? What issues surround them, and how can they be modeled?
--Currently and Soon-to-be Emerging Issues. The shift to a global
economy, modernization and consolidation of financial services, and
insurance deregulation are a few of the many changes taking place that
will likely impact current types of claims and possibly result in new
ones. How can the actuary quantitatively address the impact of these
issues when modeling current - and future - types of losses? What other
issues may soon be facing the insurance industry (e.g., over the next
decade) and how should the reserving actuary address them?
--The Coverage Dispute Tidal Wave. One thing many emerging issues have
in common is that they will likely result in significant coverage
dispute litigation. How can the actuary model reserves for these
coverage dispute litigation costs?
--Niche Marketing/Competition. Increasing pricing and profitability
pressures will undoubtedly lead to increased niche-market writings and
careful reviews of reserve adequacy by regulators and rating agencies
alike. How can actuaries estimate the impact on the company's reserves
of new types of business and/or niche markets with limited data that
company management started writing, believing it to be profitable?
--Enterprise Risk Management. Companies are becoming more and more
interested in putting all their eggs in one company basket - including
some risks not previously underwritten by insurers. How can the
reserving actuary estimate liabilities for these new types of policies,
which may include a package/multitude of exposures and both new and
unknown types of losses?
Call Paper Timetable
Timely submission of the discussion papers is critical to the success of
the call. The procedures and timetable enumerated below will apply.
1. Deadline for Proposals
By November 1, 1999, authors should submit proposals for their papers
including the title, a short description of the topic(s) to be
addressed, and the approach that will be taken. Proposals should be
submitted to:
Casualty Actuarial Society
1100 North Glebe Road, Suite 250
Arlington, VA 22203
Attn: Committee on Reserves
Proposals may also be submitted by e-mail to office@casact.org.
2. Acceptance of Proposals
By October 15, 1999, the Committee will make a decision on all
proposals. The number of accepted proposals may be limited. The
Committee will contact authors regarding their proposals.
3. Monitoring Progress
A Committee member will be assigned to work with each author to monitor
the paper's progress and provide general guidance in completing the
paper. By mutual agreement, the author and the assigned Committee
member will establish a schedule for the production of interim drafts.
By March 15, 2000, a first draft of the completed paper will be
submitted to the assigned Committee member for review.
By April 14, 2000, all comments on the first draft will have been
forwarded to the author.
4. Completion Date
By June 1, 2000, the Committee on Reserves must receive the completed
paper and a 200-word abstract for their review. Each paper will be
screened by the Committee to assure its quality of exposition and
relevance to the call. The Committee may require further rewriting of
the paper to bring it to an acceptable standard.
5. Approving the Completed Paper
By July 14, 2000, all authors will have been notified as to the results
of this screening process. Accepted papers will be printed in the CAS
Forum and will be available on the CAS Web Site prior to the 2000
Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar.
Authors may be invited to present their papers at the CLRS, scheduled
for September 18-19, 2000, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
6. Prize Competition
All papers submitted and accepted in response to the call and meeting
the minimum standards established by the Committee will be included in
the prize competition. A prize in the amount of $1,000 will be awarded
to the best paper submitted in response to the call, and will be
presented to the author at the CLRS. The best paper will be selected by
an independent review committee that will judge the papers anonymously.
The criteria for evaluation will reflect:
-Originality of ideas
-Clarity of presentation
-Contribution to the literature on reserving
-Thoroughness of analysis
Papers must be no more than 10,000 words and should be prepared in
accordance with the procedures outlined in the “Guide for Submission to
CAS Forum” on the CAS Web Site at
http://www.casact.org/about/forum.htm. Additional guidance for the
preparation of technical papers for publication is provided in the
“Guides for the Submission of Papers” in the 1999 CAS Yearbook (pages
279-287) and on the CAS Web Site at
http://www.casact.org/about/guides.htm. In addition to a hard copy of
the paper, the authors will be required to provide an electronic copy of
the paper on diskette or by e-mail, and will be asked to sign a “Release
and License” form allowing the CAS to publish the paper.
It is hoped that the authors will also submit their papers for
publication in the Proceedings in accordance with the procedures in the
Yearbook. However, acceptance of a discussion paper for this call does
not guarantee its acceptance for publication in the Proceedings.
The Committee on Reserves looks forward to receiving proposals in
response to the call, and is happy to respond to inquiries from
interested parties. Questions may be addressed to Steven Visner or
Deborah Rosenberg at their CAS Yearbook addresses.
Visit the CAS Web Site at http://www.casact.org
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