WC Loss Development

Douglas Dee ( (no email) )
Tue, 17 Mar 1998 13:33:04 -0500

The higher loss development factor for lower limits does not necessarily
imply any negative development,
and it does not necessarily imply there is something wrong with your
trending.

Consider an example, involving only one accident year & hence no need for
trending:

You have 2 losses in a particular accident year.
Loss #1 is initially reserved at $50,000 and finally settles for $52,000.
Loss #2 is iniitally reserved at $ 5,000 and finally settles for $ 10,000

Unlimited loss development: (52+10)/(50+5) = 1.127
Loss development limited to $25,000: (25+10)/(25+5) = 1.167
Loss development limited to $ 10,000: (10+10)/(10+5) = 1.333

The relationship between LDFs for losses at various limits depends on the
size of loss distributions
at the observed age & at ultimate.

Douglas Dee

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