"A crisis that could affect our ability to ""regulate"" ourselves." A need to deal more thoroughly with non-traditional risk management approaches Ability of members to prove they are more than just number crunchers ability to convince non-insurance companies of the value/skills offered by CAS members. Ability to help sort out property pricing problems acceptance by employers/public of more sophisticated models Actuarial Malpractice Actuarial Malpractice Actuarial Students of today are not good communicators/executive material. "Actuaries regain status as ""masters of risk""" Admission requirements and Membership value in an increasingly globalized socio-economic network alternative quantitative careers and professionals Any influx of members due to dissolution of investment banks or IT jobs applicability and expense of exams. Gear exams for brilliant but outgoing people with Application of Stochastic Models to Reserving and introduction of other professional organizations Asset quality analysis. Attracting new talent automation/modeling of actuarial skills Balancing desire to grow internationally without losing focus on domestic issues Bankruptcy Being a market leading brand of actuarial science - what do we stand for? Being dynamic while still having strong Pre Insurance core Burgeoning membership / Incorporation of displaced Wall Street talent Can it stand alone? CAS members NOT being recognized as the premier ERM experts Catastrophe losses. catastrophe management Catastrophes Catastrophic events. "Change to a more statistically informed profession e.g., judgments from a more technical toolkit" Changes in educational system changes in exams structure Changes in insurance regulation from the recent financial collapse. Changes in regulation of USA insurance Changes in regulatory structure Changes in solvency regulation Changing education structure Changing needs in the marketplace Changing regulation that may be on the horizon Climate change Climate change companies complaining about the onerous and expensive education system set up by the CAS Companies willingness to pay for meetings Competing with other professional organizations competition against other professions Competition from non-life actuaries from other countries. Competition from other actuarial organizations Competition from other industries with high pay and less rigorous credential processes competition from other professions competition from other professions competition from other professions competition from other professions - statisticians and predictive modelers Competition from other professions. Competition from the SOA Competition with other careers Competition with other professions for job responsibilities Competition with other professions for quantitative work. consolidation in insurance industry Consolidation in the insurance/financial industry "continued focus on actuaries in various settings, i.e.. small companies as well as larger ones" Continuing the expansion of actuarial roles Continuing to maintain the high standards of membership in the CAS Conversion from US GAAP to IFRS Converting to a full web environment Cost of meetings "Cost: does the applied learning of ACAS/FCAS outweigh the cost of study hours, exams, for employers?" Creating new job opportunities for CAS members. Credibility and clear explanation of uncertainty and confidence levels inherent in our work Credibility and Reputation of the CAS Credibility if there are future insurer insolvencies due to inadequate reserves. Credibility of actuaries called into question. credibility of L&LAE reserve estimates Credibility of Profession Credibility of the actuarial profession Credibility of the organization Current events Dealing with increasing of non-actuaries in predictive and stochastic modeling work. decline in demand for SOA actuaries decreasing standard for candidates/erosion of designation Delivery and application of cutting edge techniques to it's members Demand for actuarial skills Demand for Casualty Actuaries Demonstrating that the credentials are worth more than a Masters Degree Desire/ability for participation from a wide spectrum of members Dilution of CAS credentials Dilution of quality members Do top candidates still want to enter a profession seemingly limited to insurance? Dominance of International Insurers dynamic financial analysis economic capital economic capital modeling economic malaise Economy Economy Education - exams and continuing ed. Education of current actuaries with regards to new topics on the exam syllabus. Education Redesign Elitist nomination and electoral process Emerging issues Emerging liabilities emerging reserve deficiencies Emphasis on ERM could be a boon or a bust. We may not be ready for expanded role. "employers might reduce their support of research, volunteerism and continuing ed in order to cut exp" Enhancing reputation for quality educational opportunities and research. Ensuring actuaries / students get the appropriate education / training Enterprise Risk Management (8 enterprise risk management/role of quantitative analysis Enterprise Risk Management ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM - Is it the next DFA buzzword or will it stick? ERM and Risk Based Capital ERM beyond financial institutions ERM/Economic Capital Ever-expanding multivariate capabilities into new areas exam structure changes Expand global knowledge Expansion of professional opportunities Experience level of Actuaries - book smart vs. practical smart. failure of major insurance companies - malpractice failure to be the thought leader in ERM Falling active membership - older members will retire and fewer new members. federal versus state regulation Federal/State insurance regulation Financial crisis financial crisis Financial Guaranty issues Financial markets Financial turmoil (AIG for example) "Focus on CORE competencies, will we get spread too thin if we try to be experts in too many things?" "Further acceptance of advanced techniques (DFA, GLMs, etc.)" GAAP generate enough enthusiasm to keep the profession as highly desired by students getting young actuaries more business savvy global warming Globalization Globalization Globalization Globalization and competition from Financial Engineers. Globalization and the CAS's ability to embrace it. greater prevalence of price optimization in the US growing group of FCAS's that are not adequately qualified Helping members learn to use the new techniques that are available. how to become the leader in ERM How we react to the current uncertainties in the financial markets. How well ERM and solvency standards increase the public/private confidence. how well we upgrade our research iasb Identifying and focusing on core needs of employers of actuaries. IFRS IFRS and other regulatory issues Impact of changing Accounting rules Impact on admissions changes on the quality of new actuaries admitted to the CAS Incorporating the new exam syllabus Increase in Continuing Ed Increased competition from other professionals Increased competition from other professions. Increased governmental interference in corporate activities Increased need for expertise with complications added by new regulation/legislation Increased pressure from other organizations that will claim to do educate casualty actuaries better. Increasing demand for our services "Increasing globalization of the industry, particularly in actuarial research topics" increasing number of ACAS and FCAS Increasing regulation due to current (2008) financial services problems in US Industry Consolidation Industry consolidation Influx of more highly-skilled people from banking Insurance company structures given the changing economy Insurance market cycle intellectual property rights Interaction of Insurance Industry and Regulators/Legislators interaction with the financial world and contribution of actuaries International accounting changes International accounting rules. international accounting standards(4) international accounting standards being imposed on US companies International Growth in Casualty Insurance International Issues international p&c actuaries being accredited by other organizations international scope Keep educational topics and materials updated with the current actuarial environment keeping demand for actuaries high Keeping the exams relevant. Keeping up with cutting edge techniques and communicating/teaching them to members Lack of credibility of actuaries due to casualty actuaries malfeasance lack of focus on the critical: pricing and reserving accuracy Lack of volunteerism Lengthy exam process. Level of volunteerism Maintain uniqueness and identity of the CAS and the Property/Casualty Actuary Maintaining & enforcing ethical & professional standards against company forces Maintaining leadership role in the global actuarial community. Maintaining Professional Status in Industry Maintaining the value and credibility of the actuarial designation. make actuaries more relevant and less ivory tower; better integration into company management managing fallout from credit crunch (challenge and opportunity for actuaries) managing growth Many of us are too arrogant to realize that non-designated people can perform much of our work. market cycle marketing efforts membership apathy and low participation rates Membership engagement (beyond exams) merge or corporation of worldwide actuarial organizations Merger with life actuarial society more consulting actuaries & fewer company actuaries More malpractice suits against those who issued opinions for failing companies. moving beyond a narrow focus to show greater professional relevance needs to open up and take in other good practices/methods New college students may seek other jobs. New fair value accounting standards no comment no opinion Non-actuaries outperforming actuaries at work at a fraction of employment costs. Non-Insurance expertise Not enough new members Not focused on basics we are focused on expanding membership. Who cares! not sure Off-shoring Offshoring of actuarial jobs. offshoring of actuarial resources by US insurers Offshoring of analysts will increase. Other organizations trying to take over roles an actuary would have. Other professions completing actuarial work Outsourcing Actuarial jobs Over reliance on highly technical statistical models at the expense at the expense of developing bet perception of actuaries having too narrow of a focus- poor economy Positive contribution to the public dialogue about the value of an actuary possible outsourcing of analyst-level work Potential change brought on by IFRS. potential coalescence of international professional organizations Potential fallout from the current (and rapidly evolving) financial/credit crisis Potential shift to optional federal charter in lieu of state regulation of insurance. practical research Predictive Analytics Predictive Modeling Predictive Modeling Predictive Modeling Predictive Modeling Predictive Models "pressure from SOA to merge, with CAS as a specialty" Professional code of conduct review as a result of the AIG accounting scandal Professional Standards professionalism and how we provide support to members for guidance Professionalism/Credibility Profit optimization Provide supports to CAS members outside North America Providing quality continuing education to the membership "Providing timely, useful information" Proving the worth of Actuaries quality of exams "Recruiting new hires, given the exam process" Reduced world energy resources due to peak oil Regulation Regulation Regulation changes Regulation changes Regulatory oversight Regulatory reforms on financial industry Reinsurance Pricing - Coastal Availability Relevance and credibility in light of the unreasonable exam designation path Relevance of actuaries as providers of solutions for various business problems. Relevance to a worldwide audience when the focus is on the US market Relevance to the practicing actuary reliance upon models versus understanding of business issues Reputation issues arising from current financial crises reputation of actuarial profession and professionals Research and education regarding practical ERM applications "Research into stochastic methods for reserves, ratemaking, ERM" Research on current hot topics Reserve adequacy Reserve adequacy Reserving standards restructuring exams Restructuring of the examination process rise of ERM and Solvency II Rise of other International actuarial organizations Risk Management Risk Management Risk Management Risk Metrics and Analytics shift in government attitudes towards more regulation shrinking number and globalization of insurance companies Slow down in need for actuaries. Pyramidal experience structure turns to a tower. Slow reaction to emerging trends in the field of risk management social security funding solvency Solvency II Solvency of individual insurers Solvency standards something we haven't predicted yet. stature of the profession due to solvency issues "staying current with our methods, research, approaches to address external changes" Stochastic modeling Stochastic models "Strategic decisions to stick to our knitting, or broaden" Strength of skills of actuarial profession supply and demand of casualty actuaries Surplus of technical analysts resulting from finance meltdown Syllabus content Technical development technical methods not understandable by normal people Technological improvements Technology innovation Terrorism risk "The ability to formulate, guide practical research projects and educate members on relevant results" The current financial crisis - actuaries need to protect their role in insurance and risk management The current recession and who gets blamed for the failures we have observed in the capital markets The melding of accounting standards could have a large impact on pricing and reserving. The need to compete with professionals from finance and other fields THE RESULTING IRRELEVANCE OF CASUALTY ACTUARIES "The rise of other risk management organizations (e.g. PRMIA, etc.). we need to merge with the SOA." The supply of FCAS is larger than the demand in the labor market Threats from other professions in these areas. Training and educating actuaries unknown "Unless CAS members get broader financial skills, offshoring of actuarial analysis" Upheaval in the investments and banking arena - impact on regulation of the insurance industry value added by actuaries in managing insurance cycles. Variability in reserve estimates Visibility and opinion of the profession. What kind of work its members can do Whether or not the CAS will follow the horrible lead of the SOA's process Whether we can figure out how to incentivize reserving actuaries to do the right thing Will casualty actuaries become significant players in ERM Will we get to a point where we have too many members??