Casualty Actuarial Society

Professional Education

Predictive Modeling
Limited Attendance Seminar

August 15-16, 2012
The Deloitte Building, 29th Floor Conference Center
Chicago, Illinois 60606-4301

The Course is now Full. Registration has been closed. To be placed on a wait list please contact Leanne Wieczorek.

PURPOSE

The Predictive Modeling Limited Attendance Seminar focuses on the practical issues involved in creating predictive models. Attendees will benefit from training in the following areas:

  • Data scrubbing and manipulation
  • Data Exploration, variable selection, and modeling methodologies
  • Model validation considerations
  • Interpreting predictive model results

The seminar will impart a systematic methodology for developing modeling solutions for property and casualty insurance business problems.

The curriculum will focus on the critical issues, and highlight common pitfalls, of developing such solutions. The seminar will provide a review of relevant statistical concepts and Generalized Linear Model [GLM] theory. However, the focus of the seminar will be on practical applications, rather than theoretical issues.

The seminar is designed to be accessible to actuaries with little or no predictive modeling experience. However, actuaries with predictive modeling experience have taken the seminar in past years and reported satisfaction with it. Note also that the predictive modeling workshop held at the 2011 CAS RPM seminar covered a subset of the material to be covered during the Limited Attendance Seminar.

The seminar is designed to be interactive in nature, enabling participants to manipulate and explore data, and build models and analyze models in real time along with the instructors. To this end, the seminar will include a self-contained introduction to the R statistical computing environment. R is a sophisticated and powerful modeling tool that is rapidly gaining attention both within and outside the actuarial profession. For more on R, see Professor Jed Frees’ web site on installing and using R.

In addition to a review of basic theory and expository case studies, the seminar will present three business applications of predictive modeling:

  1. Factor optimization for an existing personal lines auto class plan using Generalized Linear Models to model pure premium
  2. Development of a personal auto "scorecard" model and integration with the underlying rating plan
  3. Development of a commercial lines pricing/underwriting algorithm.

Attendance is limited to a maximum of 35 students. Attendees will be selected on a first registered, first accepted basis. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop, loaded with the R software, to the seminar.

INSTRUCTORS

Jim Guszcza is the US predictive analytics leader in Deloitte Consulting’s Actuarial, Risk, and Analytics practice, where he has built numerous of predictive models for personal lines, commercial lines, life insurance, health care, as well as non-insurance applications. Jim is also an assistance professor of Actuarial Science, Risk Management, and Insurance at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Jim is a frequent contributor to actuarial seminars and publications, and for the past six years, he has co-taught the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Limited Attendance Seminar in Predictive Modeling. In 2008, Jim was awarded the CAS Loss Reserve Prize for best call paper. Jim is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He holds a BA in Liberal Arts from St. John’s College in Santa Fe, New Mexico and a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Chicago.

Jun Yan is a leading modeler in Deloitte Consulting’s Actuarial, Risk, and Analytics practice. Since joining Deloitte, he has designed and developed numerous P&C predictive models for both personal and commercial lines applications. Jun is a frequent speaker in CAS seminars and SAS data mining conferences. Jun has co-taught the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Limited Attendance Seminar for the past six years. Jun has published several papers in CAS Actuarial Forum. Prior to joining Deloitte, Jun was a senior consultant in personal line research at The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG). At HIG, Jun developed class plan for personal auto and homeowners, credit scoring, growth and profitability projection, and claim level loss development. Jun holds a Ph.D. in Statistics from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana.

SCHEDULE

August 15, 20128:30 a.m. - 5:30 p.m.
August 16, 20128:30 a.m. - 4:30 p.m.

A complete detailed schedule, may be found at, Predictive Modeling LAS Agenda. *Note: Schedule is subject to change.

REGISTRATION FEES

The Course is now Full. Registration has been closed. To be placed on a wait list please contact Leanne Wieczorek.

Registration Fees (in U.S. Dollars) If received
before August 1
If received
on/after August 1
CAS Member, or Active Candidate* $1,000 $1,100
Non-Members $1,200 $1,300

* An Active Candidate is a non-CAS member who has attempted at least one actuarial exam in the last two years.

CONTINUING EDUCATION CREDIT

The CAS Continuing Education Policy applies to all ACAS and FCAS members who provide actuarial services. Actuarial services are defined in the CAS Code of Professional Conduct as “professional services provided to a Principal by an individual acting in the capacity of an actuary. Such services include the rendering of advice, recommendations, findings, or opinions based upon actuarial considerations.” Members who are or could be subject to the continuing education requirements of a national actuarial organization can meet the requirements of the CAS Continuing Education Policy by satisfying the continuing education requirements established by a national actuarial organization recognized by the Policy.

This activity may qualify for up to 16.8 CE Credits for the Predictive Modeling Limited Attendance Seminar for CAS members. Participants should claim credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time, not to include breaks or lunch.

Note: The amount of CE credit that can be earned for participating in this activity must be assessed by the individual attendee. It also may be different for individuals who are subject to the requirements of organizations other than the American Academy of Actuaries.

LODGING/TRANSPORATION

The seminar will be held at:

The Deloitte Building, 29th Floor Conference Center
111 S. Wacker Drive
Chicago, Illinois 60606-4301
312-486-1000

A small room block has been arranged at the JW Marriott on Adams Street and they are offering a rate of $260/night for CAS meeting attendees.

JW Marriott Reservations:

  • Online or
  • by phone at 1-877-303-0104

Mention you are part of the room block for “Deloitte Casualty Actuarial Society” to get the negotiated rate.

Other nearby hotel options include:

    The W Chicago Center – 312-332-1200
    La Quinta Inn at 1 S. Franklin (2 blocks from Deloitte) - 312.558.1020
    Club Quarters at 111 West Adams (5 blocks from Deloitte) – 312.214.6400
    Doubletree Wit Hotel at 201 N. State Street (1 mile from Deloitte) – 312.467.0200

CANCELLATIONS

The registration fee will be refunded for a cancellation received before August 8, 2012 less a $100 processing fee. Only written cancellations will be honored. Cancellation requests can be faxed to (703) 276-3108 and e-mailed to refund@casact.org.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

  

Quick Poll

What do you know now that you wish you knew as a candidate?

Multiple Choice

The CAS Roundtable

Posted on 07/22/2014
By Marc Oberholtzer

Read More