Casualty Actuarial Society


CAGNY Fall 2013 Meeting Announcement, Registration and Presentations

12/04/2013 —

List of Attendees

Online Registration|Print Registration

The 2013 Fall CAGNY meeting will be held on Thursday, December 5th at the New Yorker Hotel, located at 481 Eighth Avenue (34 Street and Eighth Ave). Continental breakfast and registration begin at 7:45 AM. Sessions are expected to start at 8:30 AM and end at 5:00PM. Lunch will be served at the meeting site. Attire is business casual.

We expect the meeting will offer the opportunity to earn approximately 8 hours of continuing education (CE) credit as “organized activities”, including at least 1 hour of CE credits on professionalism.


7:45 – 8:30
Continental Breakfast/Registration
8:30 – 9:30
Insurance Market in 2013 and Beyond
    Robert Hartwig, Insurance Information Institute

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This presentation will provide a comprehensive overview and outlook for the property/casualty insurance industry. With 2013 largely in the rear view mirror and 2014 just around the corner, the presentation will review trends, challenges and opportunities facing the industry. Topics of discussion include profitability, underwriting performance, financial market influences (including the challenge of persistently low interest rates), catastrophe loss trends, capacity and the growth of alternative capital in reinsurance markets. The presentation will also examine opportunities for growth driven by economic and other factors. Data for many key performance metrics will be presented on an industry aggregate, by line and regional basis.

9:30 – 10:20
Killer Risks: Torpedoes in the Water
    Sim Segal, SimErgy Consulting

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There are several killer risks that most organizations commonly overlook. In this session, we identify these killer risks, discuss their root causes and characteristics, and offer suggestions on how to mitigate them.

10:20 – 10:40
Refreshment Break
10:40 – 11:30
Issues and Opportunities for Ceding Insurers in 2014
    Scott Belden, Travelers

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The changing landscape of the reinsurance marketplace presents new sources and forms of capital to ceding companies with new product options. Regulatory changes have impacted security requirements for Non-Admitted reinsurers. Will these changes impact the strategic and operational aspects of ceded reinsurance and will traditional reinsurers be able to maintain their market share? This session will examine these questions.

11:30 – 12:20
Frequency Trends – Which Way Are They Going?
    John Buchanan, ISO

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A spotlight has been on various measurements of claim frequency changes over the last dozen years. This session will use new ISO size-of-loss data sources to survey the level of frequency and related severity changes in various lines of business. This session will include investigating the impact of differences in nuisance claims and large claims, and the impact of those changes on primary and excess carriers.

12:20 – 1:40
1:40 – 2:40
Reserving: Are Actuaries Adding or Destroying Shareholder Value?
    Jessica Leong, Guy Carpenter
    Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.

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The commercial property/casualty insurance industry is likely to run out of redundancies as reserve releases continue and the market remains soft" says Business Insurance. There is concern that this period of reserve release that we have enjoyed will be followed by a period of reserve strengthening. Is this inevitable? To answer this question, we'll look at the historical reserving cycle and analyze its causes. Then we'll discuss how these reserve cycles affect insurer valuations, and discuss whether good reserving means higher shareholder value.

2:40 – 3:30
The CAS Loss Simulation Model: Enhances and Uses
    Bob Bear, RAB Actuarial Solutions
    Hai You, Goouon Actuarial Solutions

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The Loss Simulation Model Working Party (LSMWP) was charged by the CAS Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee (DRMC) in 2005 with the task of creating an open source model to simulate processes of loss emergence and settlement that researchers could use to test the performance of loss reserving methods and models. The model was completed in 2010.

In 2011 the CLRS Call Paper Program, jointly conducted by the DRMC and the Committee on Reserves, gave rise to Kailan Shang's prize winning paper "Loss Simulation Model Testing and Enhancement." Hai You, original engineer of the LSM, recently incorporated Shang's suggested enhancements. The model, the working party paper, and model documentation are available at the LSMWP's website.

This session will provide an overview of the CAS Loss Simulation Model, including these recent enhancements.

3:30 – 3:50
Refreshment Break
3:50 – 4:40
    Paul Braithwaite, FTI Consulting

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Paul Braithwaite will lead a discussion about ASOP 1 and the revised credibility standard.

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