Casualty Actuarial Society

Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar

Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS) & Workshops

September 15-17, 2014
Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego
San Diego, California

Workshop Information

Workshop 1: Understanding the Actuarial Report on Reserves
Complete with lots of hands on learning, this workshop is a great way to learn how to interpret your own actuarial report or to guide your clients through the report you have produced for them. Participants will go through a high level review of basic reserving methods as well as an explanation of the processes used to determine ultimate reserves and IBNR values. Additionally, the workshop will teach participants how to find and interpret red-flags or developing issues within the reserve analysis.

For users of actuarial reserve reports, this workshop is a great way to learn how to read and understand the methodology behind your actuarial reserve report and for actuaries, this workshop will be a great refresher on reserve methodology.

Workshop 2: Bayesian Models for Stochastic Loss Reserving
Actuaries need to use models and techniques beyond the traditional chain ladder in order to estimate loss reserve distributions for enterprise risk management and ORSA.

This workshop is targeted to practicing actuaries who want to learn about Bayesian models and to employ Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods using the freely available JAGS software to estimate these distributions.

In the morning sessions, participants will be guided through a sequence of case studies including Bayesian versions of regression, GLM, loss distribution analysis, exponential trend analysis, and the chain ladder model. Participants will also learn about hierarchical model structure and the Bayesian hierarchical growth curve model.

In the afternoon sessions, participants will learn how Bayesian MCMC methods can be used to construct stochastic loss reserve models that predict the distribution of ultimate losses and calendar year losses. Using data from the CAS Loss Reserve Database, participants will test the distributions predicted by these models and by other stochastic loss reserving models such as Mack and Bootstrap Overdispersed Poisson.

The workshop assumes some familiarity with the R programming language and some experience using the RStudio IDE. Participants are expected to bring laptops with RStudio, JAGS and R installed.

Workshop 3: Writing and Defending an Actuarial Opinion
Are you writing an opinion for the year 2014? Or maybe reading one? Join us for an interactive and hands-on workshop that will answer questions such as “what makes a good actuarial opinion and report?” The workshop will include interactive sessions on presenting and defending your opinion to the board, CEO, and the regulator.